Horse-Races.Net HRN's Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)|Horse-Races.Net

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping. Hosted by HRN: Horse-Races.Net

  • 546
  • 36975
  • 2


2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 350375 views.

From: smartyslew


Congratulations To the connections of Mage and the Forum Members who had him to win

and good exotics payouts. WAY TO GO


From: princeofdoc


I should have listened more to you about Two Phil's......I would have had the super!

But I was happy to land on Mage, though late in the day....enough to make a little profit on the day.  Watching his last two races again an hour before the race sealed the deal for me, in combination with the Pat Day Mile angle.

And Disarm looked good grinding it out for 4th!  Just beat Hit Show for me in the match up I bet :)


From: smartyslew


I love Mages pedigree and he really impressed me in the Florida Derby and because of

Foundation concerns I let him beat me, saying that lightly played in exotics.

Two Phils imo rated better than any horse in the field and did just that today

did you ever watch any of his Jocks Interviews or the race he was wearing a camera

he loves to run covered and when he does he gets relaxed and he slips between

horses and moves forward almost always forwardly placed, I watched one race he was

in 7th place and covered only 2 1/2 behind the lead and slipping in between horses

it was a clinic. Most observers looked at what place he was in and not how close to the lead he was.


From: princeofdoc


No, I didn't......but I should have.  I let my bias against Turfway influence me, as well as the Instant Coffee defeat, as I didn't think that much of that horse.  It was stupid.  I also thought the move to run in the Jeff Ruby was because it was a simpler route to the Derby (which it was)....but I should have also noticed Major Dude doing well earlier, just like I noted the success of Fort Bragg suggested the importance of the FL Derby in my thread about the Pat Day.

It was an easy super to hit if you liked Mage as much as I did.....and it paid 15K.  I had Disarm and Angel on every ticket with Mage.

Sometimes you just beat yourself!


From: smartyslew


I thought Mage would be special and I really liked his Pedigree and Performance

In  the Florida Derby and Bowed my neck Concerns with his Foundation for the win.

And had him in the wrong places for my exotics, and I was way wrong about the win

and I screwed that up and I hope Somebody made money with my angles with Two Phils

He ran a hell of a race. 2.01.77 and change one length behind Mage in 2nd place


2023 Derby Winner Mager 5g, 4-18-20
Mage another Smart Strike this time thru Curlin, Last year thru Keen Ice
Mage DERBY time 2:01.57, Faster Raw time then his sire, Bms,Grand Sire & S Bms
BMS Big Brown 2.01.82, Sire Good Magic 2nd sy 2.04.7
GR Sire Curlin     2.02.97 3rd    S BMS Hard Spun 2nd 2.02.62 Both 2007
Edit to add Preakness Times 2007 GR Sire Curlin 1st 1.53.46 by hd Street Sense 2nd, SBMS Hard Spun 3rd
2008 BMS Big Brown 1st  1.54.80
Sire Good Magic 4th 2018 to winner Justify 1/2 and 2 necks behind 1.56.47


From: smartyslew


Right what do we know, Lol I thought and still do that mage could be special 

and bowed my neck , even after that message where both he and Kingsbarns raced

3 times at 3, and others that races at 2yr olds ,only raced twice at 3.

It was the lack of workouts more than anything else before they were 3 .


From: smartyslew


2023 DERBY 1st FIVE  9 generation Linebreeding all genders Mage top 4 influence 10 % or higher 4x5 or closer
18 crosses of Nearco big 3 sons listed below with a 5x5 Influence
MAGE C, 2020 DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57  5g  Good Magic 12c/Big Brown 5h  First
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message

From: smartyslew


First 5 finishers 2023 Derby Influenced by tff taproot Agnes 16a thru 16g, 16h  Message 2127 above
up close influence by Percentage and Generation 3x3, 3x4, 4x4, 4x5 etc
First 2 finishers Had the Highest percentage of Blood and closest generation influence
and the scoring went dowqn in order from there.
1st Mage Miswaki 16g,  Hard Spun 16h  4x4
2nd Two Phils Hard Spun 16h Gdanks Honor 16h(f)  12 positions in 5 gen.3x3
3rd Angel Of Empire Fappiano 16a, Miswaki 16g 4x4, Miswaki 16g 2 Daughters 4x5

4th Disarm Fappiano 16a, Quiet American 16a 4x5, Fappiano 16a 5x5
5th Hit Show Fappiano 16a 4x5, Fappiano  16a 5x5

Family 16a, 16g,16h traced back to one taproot mare Agnes 16a Dominated the 2023 Kentuckt Derby
and the first 5 finishers.

    Breeder: J. Osborne   Agnes 16a taproot mare also links to 16b, 16c, 16g,16h

Taproot Mare Family 16-a

Dam of Little Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-c, of Brown Agnes (by West Australian), Polly Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-g, Frivolity (by Macaroni), Windermere (by Macaroni), taproot mare Family 16-b, and of Agnes Sorel (by King Tom), through each of which the maternal line of this branch of the family continues

In addition to her descendants via Windermere, Little Agnes and Polly Agnes (see their entries), the best descendants of Miss Agnes include Sir Gallahad (1923 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Leading Sire in North America 1930, 1933, 1934, 1940, 12 times Leading Broodmare Sire),

Dastur (1932 Irish Derby), Bahram (1935 2000 Guineas, Derby, St Leger), Bois Roussel (1938 Derby), The Phoenix (1943 Irish 2000 Guineas, Irish Derby), Sanctus (1963 Prix du Jockey Club), Pia (1967 Oaks), Zug (1971 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches), Saumarez (1990 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe), Commendable (2000 Belmont Stakes) and many other worldwide classic winners

Died 1877


From: smartyslew


This Horse will be on my ticket for the Belmont Stakes all slots.

ARCANGELO C, 2020 DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92,8f, Arrogate 16g/ Tapit 3o
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
UNBRIDLED 1r 3S x 4d unbridleds Song 4m, Tap Your Heels  3o 2
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message

From: smartyslew


Like Mage: Arcangelo: 4  closest Sires Blood Agr is Over 10 percent and closest 3x4 inbreeding influence

Lightly raced and runs 12's after 6f, I think his Jock is a good fit, JJ Castellano don't get off him now

he just won the Derby and is going for 2 in a row in the TC Series and I think he is a contender

should finish in the Money with a good trip. Anybody besides me think Forte May Not go.

Two Phils was never pointed to the Belmont his connections have been pointed to the BC 

hes not a 12f type and they know what they have.