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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 347589 views.

From: smartyslew


I love Mages pedigree and he really impressed me in the Florida Derby and because of

Foundation concerns I let him beat me, saying that lightly played in exotics.

Two Phils imo rated better than any horse in the field and did just that today

did you ever watch any of his Jocks Interviews or the race he was wearing a camera

he loves to run covered and when he does he gets relaxed and he slips between

horses and moves forward almost always forwardly placed, I watched one race he was

in 7th place and covered only 2 1/2 behind the lead and slipping in between horses

it was a clinic. Most observers looked at what place he was in and not how close to the lead he was.


From: princeofdoc


No, I didn't......but I should have.  I let my bias against Turfway influence me, as well as the Instant Coffee defeat, as I didn't think that much of that horse.  It was stupid.  I also thought the move to run in the Jeff Ruby was because it was a simpler route to the Derby (which it was)....but I should have also noticed Major Dude doing well earlier, just like I noted the success of Fort Bragg suggested the importance of the FL Derby in my thread about the Pat Day.

It was an easy super to hit if you liked Mage as much as I did.....and it paid 15K.  I had Disarm and Angel on every ticket with Mage.

Sometimes you just beat yourself!


From: smartyslew


I thought Mage would be special and I really liked his Pedigree and Performance

In  the Florida Derby and Bowed my neck Concerns with his Foundation for the win.

And had him in the wrong places for my exotics, and I was way wrong about the win

and I screwed that up and I hope Somebody made money with my angles with Two Phils

He ran a hell of a race. 2.01.77 and change one length behind Mage in 2nd place


2023 Derby Winner Mager 5g, 4-18-20
Mage another Smart Strike this time thru Curlin, Last year thru Keen Ice
Mage DERBY time 2:01.57, Faster Raw time then his sire, Bms,Grand Sire & S Bms
BMS Big Brown 2.01.82, Sire Good Magic 2nd sy 2.04.7
GR Sire Curlin     2.02.97 3rd    S BMS Hard Spun 2nd 2.02.62 Both 2007
Edit to add Preakness Times 2007 GR Sire Curlin 1st 1.53.46 by hd Street Sense 2nd, SBMS Hard Spun 3rd
2008 BMS Big Brown 1st  1.54.80
Sire Good Magic 4th 2018 to winner Justify 1/2 and 2 necks behind 1.56.47


From: smartyslew


Right what do we know, Lol I thought and still do that mage could be special 

and bowed my neck , even after that message where both he and Kingsbarns raced

3 times at 3, and others that races at 2yr olds ,only raced twice at 3.

It was the lack of workouts more than anything else before they were 3 .


From: smartyslew


2023 DERBY 1st FIVE  9 generation Linebreeding all genders Mage top 4 influence 10 % or higher 4x5 or closer
18 crosses of Nearco big 3 sons listed below with a 5x5 Influence
MAGE C, 2020 DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57  5g  Good Magic 12c/Big Brown 5h  First
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
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From: smartyslew


First 5 finishers 2023 Derby Influenced by tff taproot Agnes 16a thru 16g, 16h  Message 2127 above
up close influence by Percentage and Generation 3x3, 3x4, 4x4, 4x5 etc
First 2 finishers Had the Highest percentage of Blood and closest generation influence
and the scoring went dowqn in order from there.
1st Mage Miswaki 16g,  Hard Spun 16h  4x4
2nd Two Phils Hard Spun 16h Gdanks Honor 16h(f)  12 positions in 5 gen.3x3
3rd Angel Of Empire Fappiano 16a, Miswaki 16g 4x4, Miswaki 16g 2 Daughters 4x5

4th Disarm Fappiano 16a, Quiet American 16a 4x5, Fappiano 16a 5x5
5th Hit Show Fappiano 16a 4x5, Fappiano  16a 5x5

Family 16a, 16g,16h traced back to one taproot mare Agnes 16a Dominated the 2023 Kentuckt Derby
and the first 5 finishers.

    Breeder: J. Osborne   Agnes 16a taproot mare also links to 16b, 16c, 16g,16h

Taproot Mare Family 16-a

Dam of Little Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-c, of Brown Agnes (by West Australian), Polly Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-g, Frivolity (by Macaroni), Windermere (by Macaroni), taproot mare Family 16-b, and of Agnes Sorel (by King Tom), through each of which the maternal line of this branch of the family continues

In addition to her descendants via Windermere, Little Agnes and Polly Agnes (see their entries), the best descendants of Miss Agnes include Sir Gallahad (1923 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Leading Sire in North America 1930, 1933, 1934, 1940, 12 times Leading Broodmare Sire),

Dastur (1932 Irish Derby), Bahram (1935 2000 Guineas, Derby, St Leger), Bois Roussel (1938 Derby), The Phoenix (1943 Irish 2000 Guineas, Irish Derby), Sanctus (1963 Prix du Jockey Club), Pia (1967 Oaks), Zug (1971 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches), Saumarez (1990 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe), Commendable (2000 Belmont Stakes) and many other worldwide classic winners

Died 1877


From: smartyslew


This Horse will be on my ticket for the Belmont Stakes all slots.

ARCANGELO C, 2020 DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92,8f, Arrogate 16g/ Tapit 3o
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
UNBRIDLED 1r 3S x 4d unbridleds Song 4m, Tap Your Heels  3o 2
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From: smartyslew


Like Mage: Arcangelo: 4  closest Sires Blood Agr is Over 10 percent and closest 3x4 inbreeding influence

Lightly raced and runs 12's after 6f, I think his Jock is a good fit, JJ Castellano don't get off him now

he just won the Derby and is going for 2 in a row in the TC Series and I think he is a contender

should finish in the Money with a good trip. Anybody besides me think Forte May Not go.

Two Phils was never pointed to the Belmont his connections have been pointed to the BC 

hes not a 12f type and they know what they have.


From: smartyslew


Belmont Stakes winners 9 generation line breeding  Last 10 years
Checkout the winners most influential horses up close in their pedigrees 
See who shows up the most in 10 years of pedigree and the Per cent of blood.
Mr P has the highest blood in 5 winners and shows up in 8 winners. Nor Dancer in 9 winners
Which of their progeny shows up the most and The Highest percentage of influence
Horse , TFF    closest horse Tff gen  per cent Progeny side influence(Dam, Sire, Even=both)
Mo donegal  3g  Mr P 13c 4x5 AGR 12.49% Preach 2f Forty Niner 1n DAM , NOR DAN 2d 6 Sons 4x5 EVEN 11.57 %-
Essential Quality 1x Fappiano 16a 4x4 20.26%, Unbridled 1r, Jeano 1x  Even, 
Mr P 13c 3x4  20.25% Fappiano 16a,Gone West 2f, Preach 2f even,
Nor Dan 2d 4x5 11.49% Heros Honor 1x , Nijinsky 8f,Stoem Bird 4j  even, 
SEC. 2s 4x5,12.30% Weekend Surprise 3L Terlingua8c. Secrettame 2f DAM side
Tiz The Law 9e  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.38% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f,Forty Niner 1n,Crafty Prospector 1L Sire   
Nor Dan 2d  5 Sons 5x5 8.20% Sire,  Seattle Slew 13c 5x5 8.08% API 3L, Seattle Song 4m  SS ARoma 19  Sire
Sir Winston 1n Vice Regent 10c 4x4 19.30% Deputy Minister10a, Regal Intention22a,Even
Nor Dan 2d  4x5   14,27%, Vice Regent 10c,Nureyev 5h, Dam, Mr P 13c 4x5 13.20%, Afleet1h , Prime Prospect 1c, Even
Justity 1h, Mr P 13c 3x4 21.59% even, Preach 2f, Yarn 2f ,Prime Prospect 1c ,Love Style 1w
Nijinsky 8f, 4x5 13.72 %, Baldski 21a , State 2f , Likeable Style 1w, even
Nor Dan 2d  5x5 10.84 %, Nijinsky 8f,Vice Regent 10c, Storm Bird 4j even
Tapwrit 19, S Slew 13c 4x4 14.18% AP Indy 3l, Sodeo Sodeo 19 even, 
In Reality 21a 4x5 11.39%, Valid Appeal 2c, Charedi 1r, Moon Glitter 3o Sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.94%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f, Northern Prospect 9f, Sire
Creator 2o  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.24% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f Sire,Nijinsky 8f 5x5 9.92 % State 2f,Ruby Slippers 3o Sire
Nor Dan 2d 5x5 7.78 % Nijinsky 8f, Northfields 4rSire, Nasrullah 5x5 7.03 % Glamour 1x and 5 sons, Sire
American Pharoah 14, Bold Ruler 8d 5x5 7.81 % Secretariat2s, Chieftain9h,Key To The Kingdom2n ,Cornish Prince 1s Even
Northern Dancer 2d  5x5 8.15% El gran Senor8f Storm Bird 4j  Even
Tonalist 3L Nor Dan 2d 4x5 10.88% NiJinsky 8f ,TopSider 5h Sire:Nijinsky 8f 5x5 11.37%,State 2f, Ruby Slippers 3o sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.83%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2d, Sire; Buckpasser 1x 5x5 8.84% Magic 1r, Toll Booth3l , Lassie Dear 3l Sire
Palace Malice 2s Nearco 4r 5x5 7.59% Nasrullah 9c,Royal Charger 9c,Nearcticf 14c, Dam
Turn To 1w Sir Gaylord2s, H To Reason4n,Cyane 16b DAM: Nor Dan 2d 5x5 10.13% Nureyev 5h, Vice Regent 10c Even

From: smartyslew


Compare How Angel Of Empire And Arcangelo 9 gen Linebreeding Compares to the 
Last 10 Belmont Winners Linebreeding in message 2131. Look for High Percentage AGR
and The more Influence Closer than 5x5 Generations to the target horse and the who
Like the ones listed on the 10 belmont winners in message 2131. Look for Many Progeny
like 3, 4, 5 Names in the same horse besides MR P and Nor Dan like Fappiano Or Nijinsky for example. 
I score this higher than I do the Nicks ; Sire/ Bms.
ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.20 26, Classic Empire 4m/ To Honor And Serve 4r

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