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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 350782 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Check this Pair Out and compare to the Belmont winners message 2131 this thread.
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RAISE CAIN C, 2020 DP = 5-4-8-3-0 (20) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.55,14c, Violence 1g,/Lemon drop Kid 3l

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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Here is 2 Tapits to check out and compare to other Tapitis on message 2131 that won the Belmont
Stakes and Remember 3 of the Tapit winners were P/N types.

TAPIT SHOES C, 2020 DP = 4-11-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64,8h,Tapit 3o/Flower Alley 17b

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
MR PROSPECTOR  13 c
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

2023 belmont Contenders splits from their last race.
Angel of Empire     24.30,  48.38  11.84   37.02   2.01.70 10t Derby G1
                                           24.08  23..46  25.18  24.68 lastQ
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arcangelo             25.05   49.35   13.54   37.59   49.71  1/8 12.12  g3 9f
                                         24.30   24.19   24.05  Last Q 24.15
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
Forte                    24.69   47.74    11.54    36.87   49.37  1/8 12.50 g1 9r  
                                        23..05    23.80   25.33   Laast Q 25.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hit Show              23.38    46.44   10.83    36.37  2.02.82  10fDerby G1
                                         23.06   24..39   25,54   26.45 Last Q
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Il Miracolo            23.02   45.34     10.48    37.12 last Q 26.64 8f allo OC 100,000
                                        22.32      25.14   26.64
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Treasure 23.95  48.92     13.49    37.07   55.12  last 3/16 18.05 Prk G1
                                         24.97    24.57    23.58         23.95 Las
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Subject: Belmont Stakes Winner key tf families
Belmont Stakes key winners tf families in 5 generations
With total  Foundation families 5 and 8 in 5 generations in parenthis
Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side
The Influence comes from  Family reines Mares hooked to Sires or Chefs
to influence from a Family branch at least 4 lines or more within 5 generations.
Tail ff family has at least 6 lines, Sire line tff at least 5 lines, Bms Line at least 4.
13 of 22 have 13c, 6 3o-5 last 8,7 2f,10 fam 2,19 5 or 8, 8f-9
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Mo Donegal Uncle Mo/ Pulpit; 3g(6)8c(7)13c(7)2f,  (10)
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Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/23

smartyslew said...

Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side

A good reminder.  I remember you saying this from years gone by.  I have to learn more about how to use your wisdoms.  

I will still have to think over Archangelo.  Sort of like you had foundation issues with Mage in the KY Derby, this one also has very little foundation AND is carrying 8 extra pounds than he has ever carried before.  For 9.5 or 10F that wouldn't worry me as much, but for 12F I have to worry a bit. 
 

BTW, I always ignore Tiz the Law's win.......all that speed, and the race was shortened during pandemic year so it wasn't 12F.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

Those are all good concerns, I forgot that Arcangelos 9f win , was a one turn 9f event

and thats not the same as a two turn race and saying that ,the Peter Pan has been a good feeder

for the Belmont Stakes and he is a May Foal  playing catchup that. is very relaxed runner imo

and I like his pedigree and splits in that one turn race and got up in time to catch a very good one turn

type for the win. 

The field is strong imo and I'm showing the linebreeding for this group to compare to some of the past winners

because it shows how the breeders are changing and we need more races on a safe track

to card longer distances to show how they deserve to be competitive on the World stage

and it doesn't have to be on dirt. The linebreeding Shows How important the Godolphin . Byerley Turk,

and Darley Arabian lines still are its not P/P Sire and Bms lines that we are brainwashed with,

3 of the Tapit Belmont wins were P/N nicks, and the pedigrees are filled with Darley Arabian (DA)

Godolphian (G) , Byerley Turk (BT)  that are getting pushed back further every year,
  I suggest we think P/ Da, Da/P, Da/G, G/Da, B/DA, B/G, G/B and get away from P/P. P/n. P/P N/N
Sire and BMS only we would be better served than looking at only 2 lines of the the 32 lines that run thru the

5th generation pedigree,

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

here is an angle I haven't updated since 2018 Justifys year 8 gen, female Linebreeding
for the Belmont.  P =Phalaris, DA = Darley Arabian not going Thru Phalaris, G =Godolphin Sire Line
b or BT = Byerley Turk Sire Line...

Subject: Fw: 2018 belmont 8 generation female linebreeding
FIRST: s cat/ dep min 1h,narrate by honest pleasure/ state with, mr p , mrp
he is the only horse i have seen with 4 daughters of mr p in his pedigree
and has the rasmussed factor from 2 of them by Narrate, by honest pleasure/nijinsky
blue eye momo= gs-bms bms francis s,blackball 1x=bms bms bms the axe, sire of foggy note 3-0
1st s cat/ awesome again  1h
JUSTIFY C, 2015 DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75
Horse Inbreeding Stats
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

Subject: belmont 2017 8 gen female linebreeding the cd even , Patch closest Gen inf 5x6, Irish War top 8 gen
percent 72.79%, 1st Da/Da 3 spots 
first 3 the who for Stam S Royal , Knights Daughter both PrinceQ line
Aspidstra Speed for balance Dr Fager & Magic. Its the Who, not what. Patch got beat by 2 w/a good pedigree. 
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Tapit/inreality  19
TAPWRIT C, 2014 DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood%
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

Subject: 2016 belmont 8 gen female b linebreeding :3 well bred finishers, all around 70 percent 8 gen
again the who with Sp & ST, by a nose,-1 1/2 length
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first; tapit/damascus 2-0 P/N
creator= 4-10-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood%
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

Subject: 2015 belmont 8 gen female lb  AP  Highest *8  generation % 72.60 to 65.75,64.18 Fappiano/ Storm Cat nick
People Forget Storm Cat has a Argentina Influence in his pedigree Very little in breeding for AP 

1st fappiano/s cat 14
AMERICAN PHAROAH C, 2012 DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines
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