Was looking at AGRs for past winners......their percentages are really......um...........low.  

 

What do you call Low and how do you arrive at that.

Are you talking the Female 8 gen. or the 9 generation for all.or both

are you looking for 12f type  to seperate from shorter distance itm type

g1 to Oc, etc, the who , who show up the most in the pedigree's that win.  up the closest % or 4x4 type

D0 you notice the Rasmussen Factor females that are 6Sx6d or closer in the pedigree and % and Influence

The same Siblings that show up and hardly any P/P type.

Sun Princess & Nasrullah, Secretariat & Sir Gaylord, Nor Dancer & Raise The Standard, 

Round Table & Monarchy  both by PrinceQ,, Natalma & Cosmah,  Dr Fager and Magic.

Hyperion & Pharamond, Preach &Yarn

I look for 3 or more of these sets in the same pedigree plus the top sires like Nor Dan & Mrp

and their top sons or API Line.

Here is the Average winning distance for the Sires and BMSires for the 9 entrants

for the 2023 Belmont Stakes. I suggest Not to fall in love With the  Tapit hype

for the 12f Distance, there are others like AP Indy and Tapits Sire Pulpit and I think Nijinky

that appear in more Belmont Winners in 5 generations than Tapit does.

Nobody I know would handicap the Belmont Stakes based strictly on "Tapit".   Who even does that?  Weekend players for whom that has become a meme.  

It's also easy to look at the top 10 sires list and start to understand why certain bloodlines are fashionable --- and therefore, their influences show up in so many races during a given year.   Trends don't last forever, however, we get so many of "those" breedings in crops for a few years it's almost impossible to avoid. 

If somebody "falls for that", then they aren't doing their homework.    Every few years we see these kinds of crops, based on the commercial breeder top sales. 

So, of course these horses end up in top races, as they are purchased by big spenders who send their horses to super-trainers.   The ones that don't take that trajectory, we will never know about.  That' one of the problems as I see it. 

And as we know, not all the super trainers are necessarily the BEST trainers.  They just have more horses to play around with compliments of the big spenders. 

There are common "traps" that handicappers fall into, and while understandable, most don't do the kind of work it requires to win stakes races, not just graded stakes race.  

Into Mischief very popular, just not a bloodline I love all the time and I am very careful using them.