I'm going to show Hit Shows splits from the derby and compare to the 3 belmont wire Jobs'.
I think he can rate behind National Treasure and anyone that goes with him and relax
and Go Slower than the Derby splits and be one of the canditates to the 1/8 pole 1st.

any feedbacks ?

TexSquared said...

30 years ago we'd call it the Lukas Program, same thing. How many young horses ruined.

So true.

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.   

Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

These conversations do exist, but not on most horse racing boards. 

I remember when Steve Roman bowed out.  Instead of noticing the breed changing, they just blamed his "theory" and said "it doesn't work".  Despite that the whole theory was built around what is truly the measure of CLASSIC distance breeding.


Off this topic, but I watched the KY Derby 14 times, while it's true his jockey moved early,  I can still see Mage getting shakey legged at the end there.  To me, that says he can't "run all day".   Good thing he was not entered in the Belmont, that was a good decision on part of his connections.   
 

Wintertrian said:

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.    Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

Ken Rudulph lost his FanDuel job saying exactly this.  Sadly his views are shared by a silent majority of bettors who could care less about the root cause of breakdowns (or that breakdowns happen at all) -- breeding weak/unsound/bleeder/no-stamina horses and then running them on dirt tracks over short distances. Same jerks who hate on synthetics and turf.

I've said before, if you like that kind of racing, bet on quarter horses, not Thoroughbreds. Sadly, Lukas and Baffert (on these shores anyway) and the owners/breeders who support them have turned TB racing into AQHA racing.

Yes, I received the equivalent of "hate mail" in private messages on forums, for posts I've made about Baffert, and/or about the longevity of the TB breed or........about switching to another kinder surface.  This last one is met with "that will be the end of racing"....they don't even realize that the opposite is more true.   

(The Baffert proponents have been particularly ..um.....viscious in some of the mail I've received.  One of them said "I don't want to associate with anyone LIKE YOU."   LOL   I had a good laugh over that one.)    


Meanwhile, I was looking thru the names of all the horses, in all the prep races so far this year.   This is the first year I've "followed" the prep races, each and every one, in a few years.   They really add up.  

Some of the horses I expected to eventually try a Preakness or Belmont run, even if they didn't make it into the KY Derby gate but that didn't happen either.  

At any rate, I've lost my interest in hammering away at logical suggestions to save US racing.  I think the majority are status quo types.  

 

Wintertrian said:

This last one is met with "that will be the end of racing"....they don't even realize that the opposite is more true. 

We saw what PETA did to greyhound racing. We're next.

The last couple of Days its been Storming here and Losing Power Has prevented me

from posting on here sooner.

As Much as I Love Forte who I think is the class of this field will not be on top
for this race. Earlier I said Arcangelo would be played in every Slot in my tickets
I forgot The Peter Pan is a one Turn 9f race. I'm still playing him in every slot
and his race Pattern is similiar to Tonalist who won the Belmont and Peter Pan
and my play and pick that year. My top 2 in here is Arcangelo and Hit Show the 
pattern for The way I see the Pace I think will help those 2 and I think Hit Show's
jock learned a lot in the Derby's fast pace and if that didn't take to much
out of Hit Show he should try to rate and relax and slow him done his splits to
the Mile in the Derby suggests a set up to be there in the final 2 furlongs and that is
Tough and doable in my opinion ,I think this group projected 12f race is as good as it gets
for 3 yr olds Packing 126 pounds. some Trainers are savvy enough to work their Contenders
Carrying 126 pounds or more that gets overlooked by most. I don't know who they are
That Jock working Tapit Trice looks big on tv.

Look at messages 2172 and 2173 this thread comparing splits

to past winners from their splits in their last race and key on Hit Show

and National Treasure for these Raw Time comparisons.

Then look for their speed numbers awarded for their races and the pace.

My tickets besides Arcangelo and Hit Show will have the 3 derby runners that skipped

the preakness that angle has won 10 of the last 20 derbys plus 2 tc winners that ran in the

Preakness N/A for this edition Angel Of Empire , Tapit Trice Besides Hit Show thats 4 entrants

Be aware of #5 Il MiraColo the long shot, raced with Front wrapsi his last 2, Last Race his 10th
1st time Lasix Hit his top speed number 89L at one mile on 5/11 has worked 2 bullets since then
Its amazing the next time no lasix How That chemistry makes their numbers jump leaps and bounds
even from a 8f race going longer, and 2 works since might have one on lasix. needs to makeup 13 lengths.

I forgot Tapit Shoes bred for 12f, last 4 races with Lasix crept up 86 88 93 98 top number, 75 1st mdn race top
no lasix. next 1st w/o lasix might be a Miracle LOL.

others on my ticket will be one with the Non Lasix Forte and National Ticket added 

and one with the 3 longshots , not sure if IL Miracolo Chemistry will be used.

Forte was much the best, looked like he'd finish last in the final turn, went 8 wide, and missed by two lengths. AOE and Tapit Trice had no excuse.