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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 347221 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-9

Yes, I received the equivalent of "hate mail" in private messages on forums, for posts I've made about Baffert, and/or about the longevity of the TB breed or........about switching to another kinder surface.  This last one is met with "that will be the end of racing"....they don't even realize that the opposite is more true.   

(The Baffert proponents have been particularly ..um.....viscious in some of the mail I've received.  One of them said "I don't want to associate with anyone LIKE YOU."   LOL   I had a good laugh over that one.)    


Meanwhile, I was looking thru the names of all the horses, in all the prep races so far this year.   This is the first year I've "followed" the prep races, each and every one, in a few years.   They really add up.  

Some of the horses I expected to eventually try a Preakness or Belmont run, even if they didn't make it into the KY Derby gate but that didn't happen either.  

At any rate, I've lost my interest in hammering away at logical suggestions to save US racing.  I think the majority are status quo types.  

 

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jun-9

Wintertrian said:

This last one is met with "that will be the end of racing"....they don't even realize that the opposite is more true. 

We saw what PETA did to greyhound racing. We're next.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

6/10/23 Belmont Stakes 2023 3 yr olds 1 1/2 mile g1 Dirt Race  11, 9 entries
Lasix Free: National Treasure, Forte,
------------------------------TOP bris number 
1 Tapit Shoes  20-1  98L-S with out L 75 MDN
  EP 6, L last 4
2Tapit Trice  3-1
P2  L 4 back            99L  OC        102 G1
P43 Arcangelo  8-1     97L   MDN 101  G3 
E54 National Treasure  5-1   0L    100  G1
 
R3 P5 Il Miracolo  30-1 89L  OC    85  G1
P3 6 Forte  5-2              0L           103   G2
 
P3 7 Hit Show 10-1   2yr L OC      99   G2
S 8 Angel of Empire  7-2  2 yr L nw2 101   G1
S 9 Red Route One 15-1  98L-S    95 G1
------------
Speed Last Race:101 Arcangelo 101 Angel of Empire 100 National Treasure 100 Forte 98L Tapit Shoes 96 Hit Show 94 Red Route One 93 Tapit Trice 89L Il Miracolo
-------
Early Last:100L Tapit Shoes 100 Hit Show 99L Il Miracolo 90 Forte 84 National Treasure 81 Angel
of Empire 77 Tapit Trice 77 Red Route One 68 Arcangelo
---------
Late Pace Last: 122 Arcangelo 107 National Treasure 103 Red Route One 96 Forte 95 Angel of Empire 91L Tapit Shoes 86 Tapit Trice 82L Il Miracolo 82 Hit Show
------------
Back Speed :103 Forte 102 Tapit Trice 101  Angel Of Empire  99 Hit Show 98L  Red Route One
97L Arcangelo 97 National Treasure 93L Tapit Shoes  85 Il Miracolo
--
Races in a row on the Improve Bris: Tapit Shoes 5: 75 86L 88L 93L 98L,Arcangelo 4: 74 92L 97L 101
Angel Of Empire : 6 : 68 76 86 97 101 101, Il Miracolo 3:81 85 89 L, National Treasure 96 97 97 100
-------
                                 Early  Speed  Late Speed
Runstyle:                      E       E/P     P      S 
                                            ++      +      
Impact Values:           0.90   1.33  1.13    0.65 %
Races Won     
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

The last couple of Days its been Storming here and Losing Power Has prevented me

from posting on here sooner.

As Much as I Love Forte who I think is the class of this field will not be on top
for this race. Earlier I said Arcangelo would be played in every Slot in my tickets
I forgot The Peter Pan is a one Turn 9f race. I'm still playing him in every slot
and his race Pattern is similiar to Tonalist who won the Belmont and Peter Pan
and my play and pick that year. My top 2 in here is Arcangelo and Hit Show the 
pattern for The way I see the Pace I think will help those 2 and I think Hit Show's
jock learned a lot in the Derby's fast pace and if that didn't take to much
out of Hit Show he should try to rate and relax and slow him done his splits to
the Mile in the Derby suggests a set up to be there in the final 2 furlongs and that is
Tough and doable in my opinion ,I think this group projected 12f race is as good as it gets
for 3 yr olds Packing 126 pounds. some Trainers are savvy enough to work their Contenders
Carrying 126 pounds or more that gets overlooked by most. I don't know who they are
That Jock working Tapit Trice looks big on tv.


 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

Look at messages 2172 and 2173 this thread comparing splits

to past winners from their splits in their last race and key on Hit Show

and National Treasure for these Raw Time comparisons.

Then look for their speed numbers awarded for their races and the pace.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

My tickets besides Arcangelo and Hit Show will have the 3 derby runners that skipped

the preakness that angle has won 10 of the last 20 derbys plus 2 tc winners that ran in the

Preakness N/A for this edition Angel Of Empire , Tapit Trice Besides Hit Show thats 4 entrants

Be aware of #5 Il MiraColo the long shot, raced with Front wrapsi his last 2, Last Race his 10th
1st time Lasix Hit his top speed number 89L at one mile on 5/11 has worked 2 bullets since then
Its amazing the next time no lasix How That chemistry makes their numbers jump leaps and bounds
even from a 8f race going longer, and 2 works since might have one on lasix. needs to makeup 13 lengths.

I forgot Tapit Shoes bred for 12f, last 4 races with Lasix crept up 86 88 93 98 top number, 75 1st mdn race top
no lasix. next 1st w/o lasix might be a Miracle LOL.

others on my ticket will be one with the Non Lasix Forte and National Ticket added 

and one with the 3 longshots , not sure if IL Miracolo Chemistry will be used.


 

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Jun-10

Forte was much the best, looked like he'd finish last in the final turn, went 8 wide, and missed by two lengths. AOE and Tapit Trice had no excuse.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-11

How they did in the belmont on angles  from message 2178 with their tops numbers Non Pedigrees angles.

by bris without lasix being used.

1st Arcangelo 101 g3, 2nd Forte 103 g2, 3rd Tapit Trice 102 g1, 4th DH Hit Show 99 g2, Angel Of Empire 101 g1
6th National Treasure 100 g1, 7th Il Miracolo 85 g1, 8th Red Route One  95g1,9th Tapit Shoes 75 Mdn.
--------
highest with L used Tapit Shoes 98-stks,Il Miracolo  89 Oc, Red Route One 98 L Stks, (all 3 L number higher than non L)
interesting the 3 with Best Number on lasix finished 7-8-9, the last 3...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Speed Last Race Arcangelo 1st 101,2nd Forte 100, 3rd Tapit Trice 93, 4th Hit Show 96, Angel 101
----------------------------------------
Back Speed ::103 Forte 102 Tapit Trice 101  Angel Of Empire  99 Hit Show 98L, 2-3-4-4, Arcangelo 1st 97L
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Early Last; 1st Arcangelo 68, 2nd Forte 90, 3rd Tapit Trice  77,Hit Show 100, Angel 81,Tapit Shoes 100-Last.
--------------
Late Pace Last : 1st Arcangeno 122,2nd Forte 96, 3rd Tapit Trice 86, 4th Hit Show 82. Angel 95
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Races in a row on the Improve Bris:3rd Tapit Shoes 5: 75 86L 88L 93L 98L WoN,Arcangelo 4: 74 92L 97L 101
 4th Angel Of Empire : 6 : 68 76 86 97 101 101, Il Miracolo 3:81 85 89 L, National Treasure 96 97 97 100

-------------------------------------------------------------------

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-12

I see now yes the 8 generation female linebreeding blood and agr usually is lower then

the 9 generation Male and Female Linebreeding charts. 
I should of did the 9 generation charts the males can show more crosses sometimes

10 or more and have over 20 % agr 3x4,4x4 etc influence.

I put both together  for this years crop they came in almost in order of their 9 generation  linebreeding pedigree

Chart.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-12

Lets see How message 2130 did for the belmont Copied below, check the date for that message 5/29/23
Page 108 this thread.

Arcangelo did have the closest up linebreeding 3x4 and and high AGR over 20 % closest 
Also family 8f and the 3rd Conduit Belmont win last 16 years, Jazil & Rags to Riches 2 others
Equal to tapits 3 derby wins Deputy Minister below Sire of Better Than Honour 8f the 3rd Dam
Nijinsky 8f and Raise The Native 8f have the same Conduit as ARC  and thats 2 amplifiers for
The tail Female Familiy 8f Lots OF influence strong for TC races, this family more for the Belmont
Keep a picture of the Sires & Mares and their progeny and family and Rasmussen Factor LIke
Forte when you see his wonderful Linebreeding at least 10 progeny listed are in many TC race winnersl
JJ a perfect ride that was Beahtiful.
Arcangelo

UNBRIDLED 1r 3S x 4d unbridleds Song 4m, Tap Your Heels  3o 2 (1) (1) 18.75% 3x4 21.66%
DEPUTY MINISTER 10a 4s x 4d  Better Than Honour 8f  grechelle 16g 2 (0) (2) 12.50%
...[Message truncated]
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