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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 48063 views.
In reply toRe: msg 238
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-30

10/1/21 Race 8 Santa Anita 8.5 f Dirt For Two Year olds G1, American Pharoah Stks 7 entries: * Route Race
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2 entrants are on our 8f + list  # 2 Flying Drummer 10-1 and #4 Oviatt Class 3-1, Rest of Field is stretching out for the first time. Flying Drummer 2nd in last to Oviatt -4 1/2 lengths @8f
First blush ..........1-4-6 look live, before DD.
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. American Pharoah S. (Grade 1). FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. (04:29 PM) (7)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Corniche   E6 2 C 122 Smith Mike E.  5.5 f   99 Baffert Bob    6-5 
2 Flying Drummer  EP6 2 C 122 Velazquez John R.  *8f    84 bris Baffert Bob   10-1
3 Finneus   S3 2 C 122 Pereira Tiago Josue   7f  88 Solis Walther   12-1
4 Oviatt Class   S2 2 C 122 Desormeaux Kent J.  *8f   89 bris Desormeaux J. Keith   3-1
5 Joker Boy   EP 5 2 C 122 Maldonado Edwin A.  6f  89 Koriner Brian J.   15-1
6 Rockefeller   E6 2 C 122 Prat Flavien   6f    89 Baffert Bob      3-1
7 Pappacap   EP8 2 C 122 Bravo Joe   7f   87
 
Casse Mark E.  8-1
 
early in last 
104 Rockefeller 102 Corniche 100Joker Boy 100 Pappacap 99 Flying Drummer 98 Finneus 84 Oviatt Class  
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Late pace in last  
93 Corniche 92 Oviatt Class 83Joker Boy 82 Finneus 79 Flying Drummer 79 Rockefeller 78 Pappacap
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In reply toRe: msg 239
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-30

Fillies  Field of 7, 3 are on our list, #1 Electric Ride,  #2Ain't Easy , #4 Grace Adler, 2 raced 8f races #5 desert Dawn, #7 Censorship
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* Same race 1st and 2nd. 1-2-5-7 70 mdn last race.  They can't fill 2 yr old races in  California  Mdn70 to Gr 2 to fill a race...... #4 is the pick
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6th Race Santa Anita Friday Oct 1, 2021
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $200,000. Chandelier S. (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. (03:30 PM) (7)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Electric Ride  ++ EP6 2 F 122 Bravo Joe  6f   90 Sadler John W. 3-1
2 Ain't Easy  P6 2 F 122 Rosario Joel  5.5f   88 D'Amato Philip  5-2
3 Dance To The Music  E6 2 F 122 Cedillo Abel   7f 80 Glatt Mark  5-1
4 Grace Adler  P5   2 F 122 Prat Flavien  7f   97 +11  G1 Baffert Bob  9-5  ML
5 Desert Dawn  S2 +4 1/2 * 2 F 122 Gonzalez Ricardo  8f    82   LQ 26.29 D'Amato Philip  15-1
6 Elm Drive ++ EP8 2 F 122 Hernandez Juan J. 7 f   45 eased-  g1 D'Amato Philip  8-1
7 Censorship  P6  - 41/2 length* 2 F 122 Velazquez John R.   8f   77 Baffert Bob  12-1
 
Early Pace 
111 Elm Drive 109 Dance to the Music 102 Grace Adler 95 Ain't Easy 92 Electric Ride 80 Censorship 77 Desert Dawn
Late Pace 
93 Electric Ride 90 Grace Adler 88 Ain't Easy 85 Desert Dawn 75 Censorship 60 Dance to the Music 8 Elm Drive
In reply toRe: msg 239
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-2

Results for Message 239 STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. American Pharoah S. (Grade 1). FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. the 3 highlighted  live horses  and their finish  #1 Corniche 1st,  #4 Oviatt Class 3rd, # 6 Rockefeller- 4th.
Pappacap got up for 2nd and was on our other list earlier this year. 
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The Winner Corniche had the 2nd best early last race number 102, behind Rockefellers 104,
and Corniche had the best late number Last race number 93 , 2nd best was  Oviatt Class 92 (3rd Place)
Some like adding those 2 numbers together, 195, be careful if you do that, last race for the field will be
different Distances, Classes, Turf,dirt, Aw, trips  etc.
_____

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2021-10-01&track=SA&country=USA&race=8&type=inc&print=on
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In reply toRe: msg 240
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-2

Results for Message 240 :6th Race Santa Anita Friday Oct 1, 2021

STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $200,000. Chandelier S. (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD

Fillies  Field of 7, 3 are on our list, #1 Electric Ride,  #2Ain't Easy , #4 Grace Adler,
2 raced 8f races #5 desert Dawn, #7 Censorship
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They came in 2-1-5-7-4, if you did your own due diligence from this point, it was possible
to have the winner, Exacta, Tri, Super, Super High 5, nobody hit it.
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Early Pace leaders

111 Elm Drive 109 Dance to the Music 102 Grace Adler 95 : these 3 finished out of the money
suggest maybe 6f-7f  types
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Late Pace leaders
93 Electric Ride-2nd,  90 Grace Adler-5th*, 88 Ain't Easy-1st 85 Desert Dawn-3rd 75 Censorship-4th
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* Grace Adler is worth another look to stretch out past 8f  with her 1st race numbers
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http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2021-10-01&track=SA&country=USA&race=6&type=inc&print=on
In reply toRe: msg 242
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-2

#1 Wit and #5 Gunite  are on the 2 turn list, but this is a one turn mile. The 2, 3, 6 , are on our 1st list.
Imo #3 Jack Christopher has a one turn Pedigree, #5 Gunite not sure how far he can carry his speed, these 2 should be the speed
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Head to Head could be a set up for one of the others, My Prankster will be stalkin and Wit Should be Coming with Commandperformance.  Wit had a troubled trip in last, losing to Gunite who was bumped at the start.G1 7f  good track
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I'm leaning to top 3: 1-5-2, not playing a Win Bet, Exacta with these 3, and st, tri 5-1-2.
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8th race Belmont park  10/2/21 One Turn Mile
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Champagne S. (Grade 1). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (04:40 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Wit  S3   3 of 3 races on off track, g1,g2 2 C 122 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Pletcher Todd A.  2-1
2 My Prankster  P6   1 race Mdn  100 k 2 C 122 Saez Luis Pletcher Todd A.  5-2,
3 Jack Christopher E6  1 race 100k 2 C 122 Ortiz Jose L. Brown Chad C.  9-5
4 Kavod  P4  turf to dirt ,last g3 8.5f  5th place 2 C b 122 Roberts Charles Chapman James K. 50-1
5 Gunite  E8  5-2-2-1,  2 C 122 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Asmussen Steven M. 4-1
6 Commandperformance S1
 
2 C 122 Gaffalione Tyler Pletcher Todd A.  10-1

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Gunite 1st race to last bris numbers 5f to 7f  73-80-87-91-97 keeps improving

Early pace last  
113 Gunite 110Jack Christopher 106 Wit 100 My Prankster 99 Command Performance 67 Kavod
Late Pace last
90 My Prankster 87 Commandperformance 86Jack Christopher 79 Gunite 74 Wit 67 Kavod
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RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-2

It seems to me that Chad Brown favors his Frankel filly, McKulkin, over the MTR filly Consumer Spending. Even in their mutual debut, it seemed CS was compromised to make sure the favored filly had things all to herself. Today CS won easily in the Selima at Laurel. She is way too good to have even been in that race, as opposed to one of the higher regarded filly turf races.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-2

Love the last 1/16 5.46, over 6 lengths behind at 6f call, A good turn of foot

1.13.47 6f, 1.37.75. 1.43.21 :      tt Q 24.28 1/16 5.46 (29.74 ) Last Q   23.67

That's a prospect

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Oct-2

Today..For BC boys. ...Corniche..Smith and Papacap underneath 2nd; more likely third..Joe Bravo...and in 4th for Super. They ran 1- 2 at BC 2021 site Del Mar at the BC distance in the American Pharaoh.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-3

I thought she had no  chance 3/4 of the way through the race. She looked to be in trouble. The last 1/16 you referred to, was pretty much the only running she did.  Consumer Spending has yet to show her best. MTR will have a great shot at another BC Juvy Filly Turf win with her and Koala Princess.

In reply toRe: msg 243
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-3

Results for message 243 Above 
 

I picked the wrong speed horse Gunite I thought had a fitness edge over Jack Christopher
and I picked him over the best bred one turn entrant with one only race who showed
great speed in it. 7f might be Gunite's wall or he bounced. Jack Christopher won, 
Command Performance got up for 2nd and Wit 3rd.

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