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Current 3-year-old crop   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 400418 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-16

I always liked it when WT updated vet scratches when she gets them. saved a lot of dinero.

A good tool for the old tool box dontcha think. Transperanacy!!!

If they would tell us why !

  • Edited September 16, 2023 3:05 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-16

Race 6 Churchill  More Than Vows and Wicked Halo go at it. 6f  10 min to post.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Sep-16

I just looked at the workout pattern for this one.  It looks like he should have been ready to roll today.  I would very much like to know the reason for all the late scratches.  It's not too much for a bettor to ask.  

Cox is not a fellow I trust, at all, anyway.  His stats are unbelievable.  Better than most of the greats through the ages by a lot.

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=241578&rbt=TB

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-16

25 percent win lifetime, 30 million in 2021.

top horses  6 weeks in between races with works  that can slowly be unmasked week to week
or work to work by race day. him and Pletcher

And no reason given gets old like you say.  A bettor if done right would not have to ask

and gets the runaround asking for the answer Man playing kick the can in places he shouldn't be stuck in

Msg 1770.2514 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-19

this time of year only grade one races at the major tracks interest me for 3 year olds if the field has anyone I'm interested in.
I will watch these races to see who improves and many years it could be somebody llke Tiznow a late startertype.

Here is the top three year old equibase speed numbers thru 9/18/23, for anybody interested
to see how many are in the Penn. Derby and one angle is to look at the ones that are late to the party
could be ready to jump up.--
Arabian LionJustify115

Arabian KnightUncle Mo111
Munnys GoldMunnings111
GilmoreTwirling Candy110
AngelofEmpireClassicEmpire109
ForteViolence109
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-22

Penn DERBY  G1   9f (11 entrants 3 yr olds    Parx race 13 9/23/21   , Yes It was a no brainer for the win.
------------------------------Lasix---------------------break last
Modern Era  P  MDN      last 4                              6th
Dreamlike EP4                last 2                              6th   Second
Saudi Crown E8       3-4  back why??????              1st---3 triple speed   WON
Magic Tap EP8               All 4                                  2nd  4th 
Scotland  EP5         3-4-5 back                                 1st
Daydreaming Boy EP5 2-3 back                              7th
West Coast Cowboy P5 last,3 back                           2nd
Gilmore  P5      Last race of 9 win                            3rd
Crupi  EP5                 Last 2 &5 back                        3rd
Il Miracolo E5          4 back, races front wraps          3rd   3rd
Reincarnate EP8        Lasix free                                  1st
----------------------
Speed Last Race:3 Saudi Crown 106 9 Crupi L 101 4 Magic Tap 98 L 4th
------
Back Speed:104 Saudi Crown 102 Daydreaming Boy 100 Scotland
---------
Prime Power:3Saudi Crown147.0 5 Scotland 144.3 11Reincarnate 141.9
------------------
Class Rating:3 Saudi Crown 1st 120.3 10 Il Miracolo 3rd  118.9 5 Scotland 118.7
-------
Best Speed at distance:3 Saudi Crown 106 9 Crupi L 101 5 Scotland 100
-------
Early pace :102 Saudi Crown 101 Magic Tap-L 4th 99 Gilmore - L
-----
late Pace:99 Saudi Crown Won 98 Reincarnate 96Il Miracolo  3rd
-------
  • Edited September 23, 2023 7:06 pm  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-23

smartyslew said...

Yes It was a no brainer for the win.

I just now pulled up the results.  

Was suprised that Reincarnate and Scotland went off at lower odds than Dreamlike.   

I've always like Il Miracolo, nice Gun Runner colt, so glad he ran 3rd and actually added some value to the trifecta.  Turned a $14 exacta into an $85 trifecata for 50 cents.  I mean, he just won a stakes race there at Parx.....and came in 2nd in a stakes race before that.   The betting public let him get away at 25-1?  Heck.  That horse is much better than has been give credit for.  I should have played and put a decently large show wager on him since Ive always been a bit of a fan of his.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-24

Yes I was also. Scotland died in his other off track race, Reincarnate many picked him to win.
Il Miracolo was on that list with the winning nicks I sent to you he was 6 back of 2nd place.

Saudi Crown another Fappiano/ AP Indy nick with 2 crosses of Storm Cat, Ap Indy, Fappiano
within 5 generations thats 4 daughters of Secretariat with Something Fabulous half to Secretariat
To give Saidi The rasmussen factor thru Something Royal who has 6 crosses. He will give Arcangelo
a run for his money pedigree wise.
I thought Crupi would finish in the money with that off track pedigree ,he was slammed at the start
and missed the break and was last thru 5 furlongs 17 lengths back at the first call. finished 5th.

BTW Saudi Crown's Male tail line are all winners going back to Squirt 1732 the 3rd Sire in the line

grand Sire of Eclipse. His 1st 5 Sires Always Dreaming, Bodemeister, Empire Maker, Unbridled, Fappiano

Thats something. the Same for Arcangelo except he is one generation behind Saudi, and one generation

closer to Fappiano.

  • Edited September 24, 2023 4:55 am  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-24

I had used Il Miracolo for one of KY Derby prep races a while back, more than once, and posted the reasons why I thought he could run ITM.  After a while I just gave up on him though.  

But yeah, basically both he and Scotland are "non-graded stakes level" horses and that has become pretty clear.  I have actually never placed a wager on Scotland....he's never been on any of my tickets.....those need to lead types are not the kind of classic horses I look for though. I thought that was obvious in his first few races, he was already 3  years old by the time he ran his maiden, and it was 7F, 7F, and 1 miles (he should have stayed at those distances) ..... until he got 1-1/8 in a very short field of either nobodies or horses who failed at classic distances. Mott was working him bullets before the Curlin Stakes, he's like National Treasure type if you look at the mare triads. Everything is in the Brilliant / Intermediate....that 1.24 mare index tells his story.  Thing is, I bet the horse not the trainer even though I like Mott he's got some that I would just not use much.  Sort of like that Mandella horse, Forbidden Kingdom, who was not in any way shape form a "KY Derby horse" and I think sometimes we are willing to overlook certain things because we "trust the trainer" but they can't change the horse's inheritances.  

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