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Current 3-year-old crop   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 400395 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-23

smartyslew said...

Yes It was a no brainer for the win.

I just now pulled up the results.  

Was suprised that Reincarnate and Scotland went off at lower odds than Dreamlike.   

I've always like Il Miracolo, nice Gun Runner colt, so glad he ran 3rd and actually added some value to the trifecta.  Turned a $14 exacta into an $85 trifecata for 50 cents.  I mean, he just won a stakes race there at Parx.....and came in 2nd in a stakes race before that.   The betting public let him get away at 25-1?  Heck.  That horse is much better than has been give credit for.  I should have played and put a decently large show wager on him since Ive always been a bit of a fan of his.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-24

Yes I was also. Scotland died in his other off track race, Reincarnate many picked him to win.
Il Miracolo was on that list with the winning nicks I sent to you he was 6 back of 2nd place.

Saudi Crown another Fappiano/ AP Indy nick with 2 crosses of Storm Cat, Ap Indy, Fappiano
within 5 generations thats 4 daughters of Secretariat with Something Fabulous half to Secretariat
To give Saidi The rasmussen factor thru Something Royal who has 6 crosses. He will give Arcangelo
a run for his money pedigree wise.
I thought Crupi would finish in the money with that off track pedigree ,he was slammed at the start
and missed the break and was last thru 5 furlongs 17 lengths back at the first call. finished 5th.

BTW Saudi Crown's Male tail line are all winners going back to Squirt 1732 the 3rd Sire in the line

grand Sire of Eclipse. His 1st 5 Sires Always Dreaming, Bodemeister, Empire Maker, Unbridled, Fappiano

Thats something. the Same for Arcangelo except he is one generation behind Saudi, and one generation

closer to Fappiano.

  • Edited September 24, 2023 4:55 am  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-24

I had used Il Miracolo for one of KY Derby prep races a while back, more than once, and posted the reasons why I thought he could run ITM.  After a while I just gave up on him though.  

But yeah, basically both he and Scotland are "non-graded stakes level" horses and that has become pretty clear.  I have actually never placed a wager on Scotland....he's never been on any of my tickets.....those need to lead types are not the kind of classic horses I look for though. I thought that was obvious in his first few races, he was already 3  years old by the time he ran his maiden, and it was 7F, 7F, and 1 miles (he should have stayed at those distances) ..... until he got 1-1/8 in a very short field of either nobodies or horses who failed at classic distances. Mott was working him bullets before the Curlin Stakes, he's like National Treasure type if you look at the mare triads. Everything is in the Brilliant / Intermediate....that 1.24 mare index tells his story.  Thing is, I bet the horse not the trainer even though I like Mott he's got some that I would just not use much.  Sort of like that Mandella horse, Forbidden Kingdom, who was not in any way shape form a "KY Derby horse" and I think sometimes we are willing to overlook certain things because we "trust the trainer" but they can't change the horse's inheritances.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-24

I had Scotland down as a 8.5f type at the best after the race confirmed it, hit a wall twice now

Biskit was smart to get off him, lots of gurus picked him for ITM and I think they were thinking

fast track. Thats a good point the CMP speed/ stamina 1.24 index  tilts to speed big time

and the placements suggest 7f . distance. Saudi Crown Has a perfect CMP index of 1.00 like

Seattle Slew  and Smart Jones he will carry his speed over a distance of ground.
    Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-2-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-15
his  13 in the wings 6-7(BI) 7-6 (SP) suggest 10f limit if it was 7-6 and 6-7  with the B and P higher suggest longer with speed of ground
and his middle Triad the highest at 16 suggest a killer Miler with class to go a distance of ground with that balance of speed and stamina.
Slip Mahoney and Damon Mound won their races this weekend.

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-24

smartyslew said...

Saudi Crown Has a perfect CMP index of 1.00

Arcangelo has same index.  

I don't mind a bit over 1.00, even like forte 1.04 and some others who have done well.  But when you get up to past 1.20 like Tapit Trice and Scotland, as ONE "angle" to score on, I do take that into consideration in my capping, even though you can't rely on it as a "single" angle. History does have horses who have won big classic distance races with high mare indexes.....but then you can usually find the answer to that by looking at the sire side.....horse may be favoring one side, or never fulfil EITHER side of their breeding.  That's why it's only a 1 pt. angle for me. 

I like to see lower, like Mage ie.  Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-19-19   that Good Magic is always good for distance, however that particular horse seems very pace dependent, so you would have to figure that in as well.  

Why I won't play a race w/out looking at at least 5-10 "angles" that are important to me, which isn't the same as other people's Important Angles.  

Also why I skip over posts where posters just give picks, w/out any reasoning behind it.   I figure that is the whole point of forums over pick sites......we are supposed to be learning something from each other.  Sometimes I will even ask if I am curious.......but if you can't provide  reason(s) why you pick a horse, then I'm going to just assume that a plethora of Talking Heads or some cheat sheet the poster purchased handed them a few picks on a silver platter.  I can go to over 1,000 internet sites and get "picks".  

Pretty much why I hate playing contests where you have to play every race.  No way is there time enough in a day to properly do that.  Even for just one track. 

Anyway, I can also say Thanks to most every member here, because when we do take the time to share our thoughts in a fleshed-out manner, just know that you ARE helping others.   Even if everyone disagrees with you, then you have presented an angle that may cause others to get off a horse or not use that angle in the future.  Whatever.  
 

bisket513

From: bisket513

Sep-25

I don’t see Scotland as a need the lead type. I think his pace is the same, it’s just the shorter distances that puts him a few lengths back in the early stages. Yes I worry about distance with Scotland, but I also like that he runs his pace no matter what the others do around him. That’s the mark of a runner that can get the classic difference. Two things about Scotland and Saudi Crown. Saudi Crown’s better races have come in the mud, and Scotland’s bad races were on an off track. I don’t think Saudi Crown is as good as sliced bread, and I’m still holding hope for Scotland. Saudi Crown fits with Forte, Tapit Trice et Al filling out the tri and super at short odds. Mage, Geaux Rocket, Arcangelo, White Abarrio, Arabian um… knight? Lion?   (The one that won the PAC Classic) have chances for a win. I hope Mott points Scotland to the Pegasus in January. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

I agree Scotland before Saturday broke 1st in 3 races including the Curlin and Wired the field 9f race.
two of those 3 races were 9f, and 10f and near or on the lead , 2 of his wins sprinting he won from off the pace.

Try going here and click on Brad Cox and 9/23/23
I'm curious to the bad races saudi Crown has run in
click on saudi Crown and read the PP's for the Penn Derby
and let us know his bad races, i'm not sure which races they are!
his 2 wins are his lowest bris numbers first 2 races.
His 2 losses were by a nose in graded races,
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

Brad Cox said He may enter Saudi Crown In the Mile or the Classic
and Leaning to the Classic ,he thinks he can get another furlong with that win in The Penn Derby.
He was awarded a 105 beyer in the slop race. I hope he runs in the Mile. Try 10 f wnen he's four next year. 112 E

  "Saudi Crown Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-2-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-15
his  13 in the wings 6-7(BI) 7-6 (SP) suggest 10f limit if it was 7-6 and 6-7  with the B and P higher suggest longer with speed of ground
and his middle Triad the highest at 16 suggest a killer Miler with class to go a distance of ground with that balance of speed and stamina"

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-25

Saudi Crown's maiden was on wet/showery, he ran in slop in the Jim Dandy and of course, the Pennsylvania Derby now.  I can't help but think he is aided by a wet track.  Which is probably unlikely at Santa Anita, so I"m unsure of how he would stretch out there.   Until the field is set, knowing the musical chairs that often happens in the BC races, with horses dual entered in more than one race then we don't know til the day before, I can't even make a guess that any of the horses slated for the Classic will show up in the gate.  A month out ..... I just can't. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

Oh yes indeed and the best wet number going in along with the best everything else according to Bris.
and the fastest out of the gate 4 races in a row now and like you mentioned now the 2 9f races won in the slop.

Reincarnate broke 5th, Scotland 2nd. He loves leaving the gate. Cox keeps him wound and I Like his pedigree
if only somebody  else handled him. Still a lot to like.

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