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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 108060 views.
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

11/5/21

Had the exacta coming into the stretch, as usually , my horse got nipped at the wire by not one, but two horses..  Picks finished 3rd 4th, 5th officially, 4th, 5th, 6th actually.(juv turf)

  • Edited November 7, 2021 6:04 pm  by  PISTOL9
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

11/7/21

So here is a question.  Can CD still put Corniche on the future bet or will he be banned from that?  I can see them putting him on there.  And then what do you do with the sire future if they ban him, you could bet the sire in case they move to another trainier.  Not sure when they are considered under BB for next year Derby.

That distaff race was reminiscent of Derbys prior to the point races.  Speed horse tearing it up early and producing boxcar results.  Unlike the Classic which was like the recent Derbys were it was mostly a conveyor belt.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

11/8/21

I Like that well hidden elite pedigree up the middle like that. 1x galore(La Troienne Conduit)

3rd in The Bc Juvenile coming out of a Maiden Race.

William Hill came out with their 2022 Kentucky Derby odds and I couldn't find him.

8 horses finished behind him and most of them are listed ahead of him.
 Needs some gate work and should be competitive.
Corniche 1x and Essential Quality 1x have there 1x in front easy to find


 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

11/8/21

Yes my darts didn't work. The classic bred ones I liked didn't do good.
That whole field could have future Winners at varying distances, the crops 
are getting better bred IMO. And growing smaller.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

11/8/21

Baffert would be the trainer of record for the races/colt with denied points.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

11/8/21

Juvenile BC Beyers with time form numbers
Corniche         91     (113)  timeform
Echo Zulu     94      (114)
Twilight Gleaming    84    (106)
Modern Games        87     104)
Pizza Bianca          79     (07)
--
3 of last 4  BC Juvenile winners Have 1x Conduit La Troienne in their tail female family
Corniche, Essential Quality, Game Winner.
  • Edited November 8, 2021 12:06 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

11/8/21

I think that the owners are confident BB will win on appeal.....and that he as trainer will be permitted to gain points come the meaningful preps.  I can't see it any other way....why would they gamble on their stable of such talented colts?!?

Will CD offer the colt in their futures?  We'll probably know before Pool #1 whether BB is banned or not.  WH and Circa will certainly list his colts in their futures, and the bet will still be in action regardless of who the trainer is.  IF BB gets banned, there will certainly be enough time to ship the horses to Todd or others in time for the preps

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

11/9/21

Kudos to you Smarty...sincerely..

Ebb and flow of the evolution of the breed..the ability to cover your bases...

What about Corniche in the Pegasus..

That be some horse race..

  • Edited November 9, 2021 2:55 pm  by  Plus2lbs
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

11/10/21

Thank You Plus, That means a lot to me to have somebody That understands what i'm

doing ,evolution to our Window of time, that over laps with other Windows of time of the past and

future . A tidbit linebreeding (2 or more lines in a Pedigree) females Something Royal, Aspidstra,

Narrate, La Troienne, Mumtaz Begum, For the derby Winner in 8 generation Female only
Linebreeding with a strong Female to young to have 2 progeny in a pedigree.

Like Leslies Lady strong breeding to Storm Cat Line or Rasmussen Factor like

Narrate 2f in Justify's great  Pedigree IMO.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

11/11/21

This popped up today on Facebook from 2009 before Mine That Bird won the

Derby being the 2nd Derby winner after Barbaro to Have the Ran/ Mr P in The BMS position

That helped start The Window Time frame we are in today along with Fappiano/ Storm Cat

nick. Barbaro had a Turn To Sire line.
---
 

more on the Ran line in addition to the broodmare sire jinx.The K.D winners sire's dam sire line has no ran line either. also Real Quiet is the only winner with ran on the bottom pedigree(dams dam sire line}.
In addition to that Northern Dancer is the only derby winner to have Native dancer as a brood mare sire line. Ran's sire.Funny Cide is the only derby winner with Native Dancer on his dams dam sire line. Kauai King is the only winner with a Native Dancer sire line.14 derby winners have the Ran sire line.
and today we have the conduit mare profile to look at and to help us with the dams 50 percent.Charismatic,grindstone,Ferdinand,spend a buck,and genuine risk are the only derby winners going back to Bold Forbes Year to have more speed than stamina in their conduit mare profile.All but Charismatic had solid or profesional points in their Dosage profile. Charismatic is the only derby winner with more speed than stamina in his conduit mare profile without any solid or profesional points in his dosage profile. He was a Rasmussen factor horse. Outside of these 5 horses all derby winners have more stamina then speed or a balance of stamina or speed in their conduit mare profile.
  • Edited November 11, 2021 1:04 pm  by  smartyslew
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