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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 128385 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/1/22

1/1/2022 Oaklawn Race 9 Smarty Jones Stakes   8f (10-4-2-1 prep race) 14 entrants
At 8 furlongs any one can Win this including a Pretender..
At a Classic Distance I like the 2 All In Sync 8-1 the best from this group and for that reason
he's my pick a speed Horse on a wet track. followed by :3 Home Brew 3-1,1 Dash Attack 12-1
12 Cool Pappa G, 6-1(vanned Off in last) 14 Ben Diesel 5-1, 10 Barber Road 4-1,
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Oaklawn
Heavy T-Storm Wind E at 8 mph,

Temperature 57°F, Humidity 96 %
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http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=ent&print=on&country=USA&race=9&track=OP&date=2022-01-01

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/1/22

1/1/2022, Aqueduct Race 8  Jerome Stks,  1 Mile , 3 yr olds , 8 Entrants (10-4-2-1 points race)

No body entered is on our Projected Derby List, There is one entrant on the 

waiting in the wings list  #5 Smarten Up 12-1. I am not familiar with the Trainer, no opinion
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https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/AQU010122USA-EQB.html#RACE8
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Santa Anita Race 7: Sham Stks g3, 1 mile dirt, 3 yr olds  5** entries (10-4-2-1 points race

on our list #2 Oviatt Class 7-2, #3 Newgrange 2-1, on waiting in the wings list #4 Rockefeller 8-5
On our elite Turf list entered is #1 Mackinnon 3-1..
- I have no opinion at 8f for this race. For Classic Distance from this group I like
Oviatt Class and Newgrange..

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princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/1/22

I like Cooke Creek in the Jerome, 8/5 is generous vs. this weak field, though the slop may figure in....

I am really looking forward to see how Newgrange runs in the Sham....also interested in Mackinnon.  Should be a competitive race, 4 of the 5 can win it.

I like Ben Diesel in the Smarty Jones....though I don't see any horse from this field impacting the TC races....same with the Jerome.

But the Sham has had the KD winner the last two years, so I think we should watch that one closely.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/1/22

Good pickin'.....you had the generous exacta in your picks, hope you played it :)

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/1/22

Newgrange was able to win easily after allowed an easy pace....helped considerably by 2nd place Rockefeller, also a Baffert colt, by not pressing the winner.  Nonetheless, Newgrange was impressive and should be a player going forward, moreso than Rockefeller.

I'm still amazed that ownership sacrifices Derby points to stay with Baffert.....guess it will stop for the next points races at Santa Anita

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

1/3/22

Pletcher, in a familiar move, will send promising three year old, Emmanuel, to Tampa Bay Friday, to engage in an allowance race. He likes to go from Gulfstream to TBD, with his sights on the TB Derby. Let's see if this guy moves forward off his debut win.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-5

It's not really the step up in class you were hoping for.....a 30K purse with a couple of claimers, unfortunately.  Don't know we'll learn much from the race on Friday, but I guess it's better than a workout.

I was hoping he would keep him at GP toward the FOY and FL Derby.  Perhaps his stable dispersion is on his mind, or he is less certain about Emmanuel and wants an easier route?  The Sam Davis will probably be next, then the TB Derby....what I don't like about that route is that both races are only 8.5 furlongs, the company is usually less competitive, and there is an 8 week gap before the KY Derby.

Now if Pletcher adds the Ark Derby, or the Bluegrass, then I will be more inclined to approve.

I think so much depends upon the needs of the colt, and what he can learn in competition.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jan-5

On further reflection, I think he goes to the Tampa Bay Derby, then one of the big April preps. Three sophomore races is the norm for Todd.

As for this race, there are winners in here, rather than maidens. It is more of a challenge, even though it’s not much farther. But remember, he debuted at a mile. He’ll have enough foundation if all goes well to the 1st Saturday in May. Baby steps! After what I watched last year with Crowded Trade, I’m good with the patient approach!

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jan-6

princeofdoc said:

I'm still amazed that ownership sacrifices Derby points to stay with Baffert.....guess it will stop for the next points races at Santa Anita

Given the way the points system works, the eight 100-point races are effectively "win and you're in" for the Derby so I could see a trainer switch just for that final prep. These 10 point races mean almost nothing.  And if the horse can't win a 100-point prep race he probably wasn't good enough to win the Derby anyway so, no loss.  Send him back to Baffert and prepare for the Breeders' Cup (unless he's also banned from Keeneland?)

No owner is switching yet so as to not "show his hand" to other owners, trainers, track management and state officials.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jan-6

I was wondering if Baffert was just being defiant. If he could win all the major preps, he could render the Derby moot, and make it appear illegitimate. His hubris is on that level!

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