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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 254803 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/3/22

Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22
__
5  in here on our elite 2 turn list. # 2 Mo Donegal  3-1,# 4 Simplification 4-1, # 6 *Tiz The Bomb 5-1,#7 *Spin Wheel 20-1
#9 Giant Game 7-2... 2 in here on waiting in the Wings list #5 Cajun's Magic 10-1,# 8 White Abarrio 6-1
Wide open at this distance
I'm Picking 4 Simplification 4-1 1st, 9 Giant Game 7-2 2nd (bred for longer, bad post for distance and track)
3rd I'm going with the turfer 6 Tiz the Bomb 5-1, Underneath 7,8,2, wheel or box these 6, its only 8.5f.
Galt full to Songbird
Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22 , 10-4-2-1 Derby points,  * Dirt & Turf Prospects
PP Horse  Virtual
Stable
A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 Galt (KY) 3/C J Alvarado 118 W I Mott 10/1
2x Mo Donegal (KY) 3/C
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited February 3, 2022 5:22 pm  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/3/22

Gerh said...

Classic Causeway has been working steadily since the start of January.Rattle N Roll has just recently returned to work and is showing two 3f workouts

Thank you!

One of my other Classic Empire 2 yo won today at Gulfstream.   Old Town Road.  
I remember talking over with smartylew who told me had 2RF Terlinga (daughter of Big Red, Dam of Storm Cat and Pioneering.  ) But only 5.5F and claiming race, no-name trainer.  Horses like this with right trainer might excel, these are things we will never know and I think happen to a lot of horses with promise that never get fulfilled.   He was checked hard at the start, so much so that he ended up in back, 3 wide most of way, then 4 wide around the turn, then rallied and swept the field. 

Won at Churchill, Keenland, Baltera and now Gulfstream.  Wesley Ward had him as a 2 year old,, then dunno what happened!    Did the same thing under him, stumbled at start, lost action, then motored on to win.  At Keenland he won with ease. 

 

 

To me this is a horse with "a lot of heart" who has been relegated to short sprints and claiming races.   Ward lost in a claim to present trainer (Sanchez) back in October.   I guess with a DI of 5.00 and a CD of 1.17 he is a sprinter.   Would love to see in some stakes races though. 


 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/3/22

RAESFAN said...

I know I am hard on them, but only because I care so much. I hate when I see some of those kids I coached, drop out of our program, because I know that a significant percentage of them will end up in jail or dead. I deal with inner city and poor children quite a bit, and I feel invested in their futures.

I totally get that.  And you HAVE invested in them, it's not just a feeling.   Success is complicated, isn't it. 

Sometimes people can have all the talent in the world but not the *drive* to keep it going.   I didn't know much about drive until I got into my late 30s and 40s, at least not enough to identify it, but I learned how it looks by having a few very wealthy friends who were entrepreneurs, and they had that and it's pretty all-encompassing and requires a type of single-mindedness.  It is actually different than passion. 

So, there's that.   You are doing right by trying to bring out and develop certain behaviors and qualities in these kids, but in the end, you can't do it *for* them.   I get ya.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/3/22

smartyslew said...

we don't have Dr. Romans data measuring energy used

argh.  Don't remind me.  Every time I think about him not putting out his info my heart sinks just like it did when we first learned no more chef-de-race website.   It's like fresh pain. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/3/22

This is his Cmp. not updated but tilted strongly towards stamina to balance his speed dosage .Conduit Mare Profile = 4-4-8-10-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 16-22-23

tail female family 4m.

Love to see him stretch out.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

2/3/22

To All..

WADR the study of genetics (and Classically those infamous flys in the teaching of the math of progeny);

...

 The myraid of/ and  mathematical combinations is to scope the "Anomalies.

In Chemistry the exact finite measurement of elements, and then; say add heat, cold, pressure, distillation also does not equate to final product. 

This is called "Stoichometry.

A recent post here by a gene capper said the Derby Winner had a combination of usually a sire and mare name of royality and that was to be taken to the window. Not too techie. To which I sent him a list of the last 2 dozen.

And the just days before the Derby, the pro breeding analysis of horses that made it to say in the Derby; they're already there.  Formula all crop reduce to 20, and calculate their PPs  in equation. Still 5 % chance of pickin' winner if soley gene pool is deciding edge.

A pro handicapper editorial narrative factor of a 1st time starter bred by sire with a high percentage of 1st time wins for the crop. I've seen high of 25%, but played out over say 50 to 100, that number shrinks like a bankroll of loser.

Derby winners are named after singer Sting's son, An owner asking his wife: I'll Have Another cookie. Gone are the days of whipping up a bowl of genetic stoichometry ? Spelling? and voo doo Dosage. Crop size, # of stallions standing and stud fee crunch the numbers as well.

Like WTH...a dosage 7; can't win.

Ah don't bet the farm,  do 2 barn doors.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/4/22

smartyslew said...

Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 16-22-23

tail female family 4m.

Love to see him stretch out.

yeah would love to see him stretch out too, he's game as heck.    But I doubt that would happen.  Also too bad Ward didn't keep him. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/4/22

 Derby points leaderboard entered  in this race:  Mo Donegal 10 pts, Giant Game 4,White Abbario 2,
--

Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22
__
5  in here on our elite 2 turn list. # 2 Mo Donegal  3-1,# 4 Simplification 4-1, # 6 *Tiz The Bomb 5-1,#7 *Spin Wheel 20-1
#9 Giant Game 7-2... 2 in here on waiting in the Wings list #5 Cajun's Magic 10-1,# 8 White Abarrio 6-1
Wide open at this distance
I'm Picking 4 Simplification 4-1 1st, 9 Giant Game 7-2 2nd (bred for longer, bad post for distance and track)
3rd I'm going with the turfer 6 Tiz the Bomb 5-1, Underneath 7,8,2, wheel or box these 6, its only 8.5f.
Galt full to Songbird
Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22 , 10-4-2-1 Derby points,  * Dirt & Turf Prospects
PP Horse  Virtual
Stable
A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 Galt (KY) 3/C J Alvarado 118 W I Mott 10/1
2x Mo Donegal (KY) 3/C
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/4/22

Derby points entrants :Courvoisier 10, Smarten Up 4,Cooke Creek 2
-

2/5/22 Aqueduct race 8 Withers 9f
--
2 in This race on our elite 2 turns list #1 Constitutionlawyer**, #3 Smarten Up a closer
1 on the Wannabe list #4 Gilded Age , 1 on our early 2 yr old list in Oct. #9 Early Voting  3-1
1 on our waiting in the Wings #5 Courvoisier 5-2-2-1, 4 routes, on Belmont list rf with Tapits tff 3o
won Jerome in last after 4 mdn races ,bred for 12f & 4 yr old season Dangerous on the improve EP8 type
**Moving up in class from Mdn 80
My picks, in order 1 Constitutionlawyer 7-2, 2 5 Courvoisier 9-2, 3 4 Gilded Age 10-1, 4 3 Smarten Up 10-1
Early Voting  3-1, leaving off my ticket, only one race in December.MDN 80,lacks foundation of others.
--
2/5/22 aqueduct race 8 withers stks g3 9f  10-4-2-1 derby points
 
r
1x EP 4Constitutionlawyer (KY) 7-2 3/C E 91 9f mud J Lezcano 118 R Handal
2 EP 6  Grantham (KY)  10-1 3/C E87 8.5f
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/4/22

3 in here are on our Elite 2 turn list Messier, Sir London, Wharton, 1 entrant waiting in the wings Happy Jack
race is Wide open with 5 entrants . Cabo Spirit (Turfer) Could be entered to make it 5 entrants, Baffert effect
might be one reason Shippers don't come in here for a G3 , sad 5 only entrants.
Happy Jack 1 only race could be the the best for Classic Distances, He's a little behind in the Foundation
and the same applies to Wharton.
--
8th race  Santa Anita Park - Sunday, February 6th, 2022 STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt Robert Lewis g3, 3 yr olds 10-4-2-1 derby pts, none  on the Derby points leader board.
 
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Messier   6-5 3 C  E/P 6 o 120 Velazquez John R. Baffert Bob
2 Sir London  9-5 3 C E 8 120 Prat Flavien Callaghan Simon
3 Cabo Spirit  8-1, 3 C  P 3 124 Espinoza Victor Papaprodromou George
4 Wharton   4-1 3 C E/P 6 120 Hernandez Juan J. Baffert Bob
5 Happy Jack-rf  6-1 3 C  S 6 120 Cedillo Abel O'Neill Doug F.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 91 97/ 89 97,   Messier  99 108/ 88, 100,
 Messier has a big advantage in Prime Power scoring 142.5, Sir London 134.1
Messier 1st last race, class rating 117.7,best speed at distance 100.
early speed #Wharton 100, Messier 99,Happy Jack 91, late speed last 95T Cabo Spirit,94 Sir London,89 Happy Jack
If you bet to win ,beat Messier 6-5
  • Edited February 4, 2022 3:18 pm  by  smartyslew
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