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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 137782 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-3

I think the winner won the Louisiana Derby.Wouldn’t be surprised if the Florida Derby provides the rest of the trifecta

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-3

those 2 races and I need to see more from Santa Anita and Today I can't remember who's entered in the Blue Grass!
The Winner of the Arkansas Running every other Race with Lasix is why I left him off my ticket knowing he was going to 
be a Contender for the race, is that helping him. When is his next scheduled dose April 20th, is that within the rules, what a Joke.

If he beats me in May so be it, I don't think he will hit the board carring 126 pounds. toss
 Maybe every contender can race every other race with Lasix, Right.  Look how many Lasix free horses made the cut so far,
They will be on my ticket.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-3

The two big races on Sat seemed to lack pace.   I'd be interested in seeing the variant and figure for TP, that horse had a good time.  Too bad the horse has never done well on dirt.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-3

results message 735 Arkansas Derby, how we did. The winner Cyberknife I didn't Play on my ticket because He 
raced with Lasix in his last, also last 4 races Lasix  every  Other race, not for me. No win bet, can't bet Cyberknife
Advantage in my view. had 2nd 3rd and 4th place.
Doppelganger yardstick:  8 lengths behind Winner, 5 3/4 lengths behind Forbidden Kingdom @ 8.5f last.
----

Arkansas Derby

3rd Secret Oath,4th Doppelganger,  2ndBarber Road, Un Ujo, We The People, I'll watch the race
If I play it would be these 5 on my ticket,
--
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 103:Qualify 0 , best :3rd Secret Oath** 97, 3rd Secret Oath95, 4th-Doppelganger95,
!st- Cyberknive 94 only with Lasix, best without L 81, ** gets 5 pounds
--
Ave Dist Pace Speed :3rd-Secret Oath 92 94/ 96 96,4th-Doppelganger   89 103/ 85 95
2nd-Barber Road 81 84/ 97 92,Un Ojo 78 76/105 92 , We The People 81 82/ 99 91,
-----
Ave race rating; Un Ojo 116,Barber Road-2nd 116,Ben Diesel 116. Kavod 116,  
Prime Power : 6 3rd-Secret Oath 141.1 44th- Doppelganger 138.7 3 2nd- Barber Road 137.7
Class 6 3rd Secret Oath 119.2 5 Un Ojo 117.8 3  2nd-Barber Road 117.5
---
Early :93 3rdSecret Oath 89  4th-Doppelganger 87 1st-Cyberknife-L 80 Kavod
late :108 2nd-Barber Road 107 We the People-L 105 Un Ojo 100 Chasing Time 100 3rd-Secret Oath 
%Races Won Run Style S+ 40 %  E 20% EP 20% P 20 %, no S type entered
Best Speed at Distance :5 Un Ojo 86, 2nd G3 Withers
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Horse for the course :6 3rd-Secret Oath 97,5 Un Ojo 92, 9 We The People-L 92..  Prat will try the steal, without L
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12th Race - Oaklawn Park - Saturday, April 2nd, 2022
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,250,000. Arkansas Derby (Grade 1). THREE YEAR OLDS.
PP Horse A/S   SPeed, dis, gr M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Kavod  E7  3 C  89, 8.5, g2 122* Murrill Mitchell Hartman Chris A.  15-1
2 Chasing Time  EP6 3 C  87, 8.5f,  g2 119 Lezcano Jose Asmussen Steven M.  12-1
3 Barber Road  P2   2nd 3 C   92, 8.5f g3 2nd 119 Gutierrez Reylu Ortiz John Alexander  8-1
4 Doppelganger  P5  4th 3 C  95, 8.5f  g2  4th
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-3

Results Message 740 Florida Derby see how our Cappin did.. Our Box hit the Tri.
I was worried about Classic Causeway his races were on Tampa Bay, that track is tough to figure
He backed up like he bled or flipped his Pallete. Charge It finished 2nd after hitting the Gate at the Start
in this 1st race Against winners and Stretching out,  he drifted in the stretch, Took dirt up close and personal
and stayed within 2 lengths of the lead the whole race, thats a big deal for a newbe imo. 1 1/4 behind at finish.
the Winner ran good and is tough and keeps improving. Simplication and Pappacap ran the first 6f in 1.10.68
Kavod and Cyberknife 1.11.22 in the Arkansas.
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https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP040222USA14.pdf
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Charge IT was my pick until I realized Pletcher Does his Usual use L in the races he can..
I have to see how he does in this race without it, in this his 3rd race.
-----
Ave Dist Pace  Speed : 3rd-Simplification 97,1st-White Abarrio 97, 2nd-Charge It 95,Classic Causeway 95,Strike Hard 94
---
Ave Race Rating: O Captain 118, 3rd-Simplification, 1st-White Abarrio, Classic Causeway, Pappacap, Cajuns Magic 116
----
Prime Power :
2 Classic Causeway 144.7 3rd-3 Simplification 142.5 2nd-6 Charge It 139.8
Classs :3rd-3 Simplification 119.8 2 Classic Causeway 119.1 8 Cajun's Magic 118.9
----
Early: 99 Steal Sunshine 98 1st-White Abarrio 97 Pappacap 94 Cajun's Magic 91 3rd-Simplification
-------
Late :107,2nd- Charge It 98 Clapton 97 Strike Hard 95 1st-White Abarrio 94 Classic Causeway 94 3rd-Simplification
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I will Box if its a Fast Track. Classic Causeway, Simplification3rd, Charge It 2nd, White Abarrio1st ,O Captain,
I will wheel if the odds drift into a positive Position
Gulfstream Park - Saturday, April 2nd, 2022 Florida Derby 
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (Grade 1). THREE YEAR OLDS.
PP Horse A/S  spd dis gr          Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Strike Hard  EP4   49 days off 3 C 91  8.5f  g3 122 Alvarado Junior Williams Matthew J.  146  20-1
2x Classic Causeway  E6 3 C 99  8.5f g3 122 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Lynch Brian A.        167   7-2
3x Simplification  EP 4   3rd 3 C  95 8.5f g2   3rd 122 Ortiz Jose L. Sano Antonio          150   5-2
4 King Of Truth EP 5  L last 2* 3 G 42 8.5f  Oc 122 Morelos Jose E. Sanchez Amador Merei  163  50-1
...[Message truncated]
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Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-4

According to Lynch,Classic Causeway came back fine and scoped clean.His status for the derby is up in the air at the moment.

If you get a chance,check out the Trakus info for the Florida Derby.The figures for Pappacap seem strange

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-4

Maybe its the track, Many horses over the years run good at Tampa and lousy anywhere else.
Its always tough to draw a line thru a race.

Thanks for the info I'll check Pappacap out and still no word on Classic Moment, I saw that

sight Dogs posted, you would think somebody in the racing industry would have a hot line set up..

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-4

Wood.....SA Derby.....Bluegrass

I think the winner will come from there, possibly even the tri.

Smile Happy....Zandon.....Mo Donegal....Forbidden Kingdom...Messier....as the faves

Watching for McLaren Vale, Fenwick (may go in BG), and Volcanic as my shots.  Perhaps Taiba too.

The only horse from the weekend preps I like to possibly hit the board is Charge It.  I agree with your assessment, great first try vs. winners around two turns.  See how he trains in the next month

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-4

Smile Happy is 17th with 30 pts, he needs points, Forbidden Kingdom with 50 pts will be in now

everybody else you listed needs points to get in and I haven't looked to see who besides Forbidden Kingdom

with enough points is running next week. The cream is coming to the top ! 

Northof64

From: Northof64

Apr-4

Anxious to see if Early Voting can repeat his last performance 

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