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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 137623 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

That is correct 2 only January Foal winners since 1960, I think I started  this list around 2010 going back 50 years.

Grindstone 1/21/1993 foal date won in 1996, Proud Clarion 1/1/1964 first in 1967 , the 2 oldest 3's to win the Derby

in the last 61 years. its paid off 59 times to toss the January foals for the win in the last 61 runnings.

You Going To toss Epicenter for the win this year. 1/29/19. the only January foal in the top 20.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-25

Why would you think the January foals are at a disadvantage?  Is the sample size large enough to conclude that there is a challenge with early foals?  I have the same question about #17 pp., or Amussen not winning, etc.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

Can’t toss Epicenter.Aren’t we due a January winner?

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

I am guessing they may have peaked before the derby

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

Totally unrelated;Classic Causeway is back in the derby.Leparoux will ride per DRF

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Its only part of the data for the angle that hasn't been presented on here..............yet............maybe.

Its like a Halley's comet window of time. A old boy told me once ,he didn't think the December and January foals

got enough Sunshine. I didn't look before 1960 derby looking at Foal dates, Mares age for that day and the number of crops

for the Dam, Nick, Family , RF's , The  Data on each side some are runners other are producers, It's a Good angle for Future bets

also. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Maybe Over due, he can still be on a ticket .its not the only angle for the win.

It might be in part where it is born at, North South east west weather conditions might be part.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

His dam is 12 and her 6th crop  . If a double digit Dam age on the Foal Date and if its more than her 4th crop in this

case the 6th crop  the sire, horse or Dam one of them needs the Rf and Epicenter has Something Royal 2s Rf

Thru Secretariat the Number one Rf you want, thats part of the rest of the story with more coming down the road

Keep you hands off the Panic Button. (Not you Gerh)

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-25

Wait. What?

What you just said, can you read Messier's pedigree in the same language you just wrote? Maybe I can follow you better using this pedigree. Thanks! flushed

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-25

Definitely good angle for future bets, my main interest anyway.....also racing debut.  Very few that debut in May or June ever win Derby; I think most winners debut in Aug or Sept., with a few in Oct/Nov.

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