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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 214666 views.

From: smartyslew


4/29 Derby Smorgasboard :

Who will win the 2022 Kentucky Derby?

Epicenter: 14.38%

Messier: 13.07%

Taiba: 11.11%

Zandon: 9.80%

Mo Donegal: 7.84%

Charge It: 7.84%

Tiz the Bomb: 6.54%

White Abarrio: 5.88%

Simplification: 4.58%

Crown Pride: 4.58%

Smile Happy: 3.92%

Early Voting: 2.61%

Cyberknife: 2.61%

Barber Road: 1.96%

Zozos: 1.31%

Pioneer of Medina: 1.31%

Un Ojo: 0.65%

Other: 0.00%

Tawny Port: 0.00%

Summer Is Tomorrow: 0.00%

In Due Time: 0.00%

Happy Jack: 0.00%

Get Out and Vote This Week !!!!



From: smartyslew


For the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field .:  PP= Passing Position
Foal Date  with the Dams age on The Foal Date
and The crop year for the Dam. 43 of 61 derby winners were in The 1st crop to 4th Crop
                                       foal age           Dams Age             Dams crop year
Barber Road                         3/18/19                 11                                 6  2 Prince in a PP
Charge IT                      4/3/19              7                          2   RF,2 big Red Girls
Classic Causeway            2/22               16                          8  rf
C-Crown Pride (JPN)       5/4/19              7                          1st  LH Prince
C-N-Cyberknife               3/14                10                         4  Lh Prince
Early Voting P/N              3/7                   7                         3
N-Epicenter                        1/29                 12                           6   rf
Happy Jack                            3/17/19                 10                                3  rf
N In Due Time                        2/19                        4                                1
N-Messier                               3/24                       9                                 3     
Mo Donegal                     4/19                 7                          2
C-N-Pioneer of Medina           2/24                       5                                 1
N-Simplification               2/28                  7                         1
Smile Happy P/N              2/20                13                         4  rf
C-N-Summer Is Tomorrow       4/24                       9                                 3
N-Taiba                            4/13                 8                          2
Tawny Port P/N                        3/21                      10                                4
Tiz The Bomb P/N       
...[Message truncated]
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From: smartyslew


Ran The Last Q 25.40 < or faster  in  9f + race  , Tough for a front runner and its been done before.

strong angle for the win. !

Mo Donegal 9f, Last Q 23.67 bris late  121  bey spd 96  bris spd  111
Epicenter 9 3/16,  Last Q 24.31 bris late 106,   bey sd 101  bris  102
Early Voting 9f. Last Q  24.37, bris late  111, bey sd  96,  bris  111
Zandon 9f, Q   24.45, bris late  114,  bey sd  98  bris 103
Zozos 9 3/16, Q 24.62 bris late 98, bey sp 98 bris  98
Pioneer Of Medina 9 3/16 Q 24.62 bris late 95, bey sd  bris 96
Taiba 9f Q  24.75  Bris late  109,  bey 102 bris   111
Tiz The Bomb 9f(AW) 24.87 bris late 105   bey sp 94, bris spd 101


From: pianot


Yes angle works. 


From: smartyslew


Early Voting skipping the Derby is a Big deal, He is ranked number 1 by bris for Prime Power scored at  150.6

Next in line is Simplification now number one  148.2 oh And Messier tied at 148.2 both, Simplification  was 3rd in his last race
lost to White Abarrio next with a score 147.4 , interesting, looks like Bris have Florida Derby and Wood ranked the best preps

by the prime numbers. Mo Donegal 146.7 is next, Smile Happy 146.6, Charge It 146.1 all ranked ahead of Epicenter and Zandon.

Who would of thought > the old scoring subtract 8 points from the Number 1 score.  148.2= 140.2 , anybody lower than 140.2

toss for the win. That's from In Due Time 139.9 and lower . That moves up 3 more within 8 points , that were toss's

with Early Voting  score 150.6, now the 3 Tawny Port 142.1,  , Cyberknife,141.6 and  Skippylongstocking  141.2 didn't make the field.


From: pianot


Smarty- you always come up with great data points!


From: smartyslew


thanks, Maybe that real Hot day during the Florida Derby had something to do with the real slow late numbers

in that race. I don't know.


From: sovereign1


Didn't someone mention there was a headwind for the Florida Derby?


From: smartyslew


yes , I heard headwind and sidewinds and hot , tomorrow we may  get the track  variant and its been

reported GP has had timing problems on many days.




This year more than any year I can remember, post position and trip will have a lot more meaning.  Too many of these are so close that being too wide or having a bit of trouble will be difficult to make up.  No one stands that far above.  I've got to hope Rosario gives the wide trip he usually gives me when I need him, and not the practical joke type of ride where he went right to the rail.  EP Front runners more likely to get their trip and avoid the trouble if they can last and keep pace down.  SH on a far post will put him too wide as he was in the BG.  Frenchie will be choking his as usual so you cannot count on the EP.  I think I'll be leaning to the speed horses filling in with some of the later runners, but there as not been a lot of late runners other than Zandon, I'm inclined to toss all those Wood LP figs.  TTB is interesting to me as I liked his race, but have not seen where I think he can translate that to real dirt to be effective.