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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 252961 views.

From: smartyslew


What worries you, he has the Strong Argentina pedigree thru Candy Ride That throws the DP and DI off

and the CD is always grasping at straws and the Rf Thru Ballade to get  Rahy and Saint Ballado , Blushing Groom 

the Dominant Sire in the up close pedigree with Rahy, Candy stripes, ,Wise Brides, 2 lines of Halo and Ballade Stam Chef 

Herbager CS on each side.  

The horse adapts to the break with you never know what you are going to get gets scary to me

and many like that about him, adapts maybe, I'm not sure what do you think ?

Candy Ride(ARG) 13c Track record holder at 10 furlongs Pacific Classic Del Mar. His BM Sire.


From: Oldbettowin


He scares me in that he might win lol which wouldn’t be good if I bet on Epicenter or Messier.


From: smartyslew


I think it was Foresight that brought up the slow late numbers that is important for GP

There is evidence in races earlier at the track of there timers being way off and there is no way

of knowing if it included this race . watching the race on the close to me some things looked off

on the finish by my eyes. I have no idea why fast early slow late track, not the runners.


From: smartyslew


Looks like they are adjusting the prime power numbers with Early Voting scratching.

Be sure and check the new numbers and apply the new numbers.


From: smartyslew


Okay , many this year scare me.


From: Wintertrian


PISTOL9 said...

SH on a far post will put him too wide as he was in the BG. 

I tossed him for the win long ago because he was gaining on an already "wrapped up" Epicenter in the Risen Star.  This is when a 2nd place in a prep race just does not impress me.   I didn't need the BG race to tell me anything after that but in the BG he beat Golden Glider and Emmanuel.   These triumphs just don't add up to a win in the Derby for me. 

Simp has been one of my early picks since forever, just upset that he is getting notice now. Everyone all along has had him running like 10th or something, haven't even seen him in many topics here or elsewhere till recently.  Morello was going to be my LS to hit the board til he dropped out, now Simp's odds will be lowered I think, who was my other live longshot.




Neither a GC sl or CR bmsl scare me, then there is that 16-g which does not either.

PP 5 about perfect, now have to see where BB #2 gets, bookends are gone.

Looks like all the top ones and the ones I like are within 1st ten spots, my one bomb I like is way outside  has to use speed so he is not too wide.

Looks like the hype of Taiba subsided, BB #2 is now #1 8-1,  My Oaks pick as of now made fav, so may have to try the double to get those two bets


Looks like Skippy was one spot from getting on the list.

  • Edited May 2, 2022 4:18 pm  by  PISTOL9

From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

looks like Bris have Florida Derby and Wood ranked the best preps

Interesting that everyone thought the FG races were the most potent and most likely because of Epicenter? Seems to be the horse everyone compares other to.    Despite fact that FL derby has produced 15 ky derby winners in comparison.  Most recently in the 2000 era, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist and Always Dreaming.  Meanwhile, no winner of the Risen Star has gone on to win the KY Derby, though horses who ran in it have, War Emblem ran 6th in the Risen Star and won the KY Derby.  Mandaloun won KY Derby due to the eventual DQ, and Gun Runner who won the Risen Star ran 3rd in the KY Derby; War of Will ran 7th in the KY Derby; Bravazo ran 6th in the KY Derby.   For the Louisiana Derby, only 2 winners produced a KY Derby winner, Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924, but some who ran in it unsucessfully, like Funnyide, Country House nd Mandaloun (6th in the LA Derby), the last 2 albeit by DQs of the actual KY Derby winners (which I doubt will happen again) and Hot Rod Charlie who won the LA Derby ran 3rd in the KY Derby.  

Wood was one reason I liked Morello for a live longshot though, but hitting the gate and getting off slow as a result kinda ruined the Wood for him, but I watched his Gotham and earlier races to know that the way he ran in the Wood was nothing like he usually runs.  


From: smartyslew


I like the new distances for the La Derby 9 3/16 and 9f for the Risen Star  To me they are fit and its a Change 

from past years and I like The Change and I don't compare it to past years results.

Epicenter- 1st,, Smile Happy 2nd, , Zandon 3rd, Pioneer Of Medina 4th,  Tawny Port-5th, all ran in The Risen Star, Zozos Ran in the 
Louisiana Derby- 2nd ,  Cyberknife ran 6th in the Lecomte with out Lasix sandwich in between his 2 wins using lasix,
Rich Strike 5th In the Gun Runner, Rattle N Roll ran 4th in The La Derby. Epiicenter race in all 4 of those races 
Pioneer Of Medina also 3rd in the Louis. Derby
I hope Bris is doing their Prime Power based on the individual horse and not the prep they raced in.
Since Early voting was scratched they changed their numbers twice. They Swapped numbers between Messier
and Simplification now Messier is up by 1 tick.

Some say Mo is a horse for the course at Aqu., there are others that have only raced on one track

and Don't forget Charge It and Summer Is Tomorrow and Taiba last race was their first 2 turn race.

Some Think all 3 did pretty good 1st time 2 turns.

Msg 1770.947 deleted