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KY Derby Futures   Triple Crown

Started 1/21/22 by Wintertrian; 6347 views.

From: princeofdoc


I really can't understand why any serious futures bettor would bet in these pools; the prices are so bad!  Smile Happy at 8-1?!?  He's been bet down to 16-1 at WH and Circa, which is still too low (and he's my favorite colt right now), and that's double Pool #2.

There may be some value in the "all others", especially since that category has the unusual attribute of including all the Baffert colts.  An interesting proposition, as I do like Corniche, New Grange, Doppelganger, and Wharton, at least thus far


From: smartyslew


One angle in January is to bet a horse that doesn't make the  field of 24 futures 

at the sights you referenced , 5 to 8 out of this pool is a guesstimate to make the field

Pool 2 has been reported hitting the most exactas in the Derby, one might take a shot

at that here. 9 entrants boxed costs $ 72 @ $1  that's cheaper then  what many lay down

on one horse in Vegas or Europe. $144 for $2 box or box more than 9.

or wheel one you like with all for $ 2 costs $46 bucks. lots of strategy's. $5 Wheel costs $ 115.


From: princeofdoc


I do agree.....there could be some definite value in some exacta betting, certainly, as you have noted.

As regards the prices at Circa and WH, I have found the route to add new horses, so there is actually no instance of a horse not being available.

If you see a true UTR horse, do post and I'll try to get a price up :)




Main reason is  those without access to LV pools.    I don't think any of the sports betting places carry those  do they?  I don't think IN does which is closest to me, so CD is all I can bet.  I have not bet much on them the last three years.  None last year, bet one in Jan 2020 then KD got canned, the horse I bet on ended up winning the Met Mile.

For the price differences, Twinspires is a parimutuel pool, whereas LV is straight bet they do not have to payout all the money they make, they can set prices to entice more betting.  Possible to make a killing or take a bath like in 2012.

  • Edited January 24, 2022 9:41 pm  by  PISTOL9

From: DogsUpWired


The Vegas casinos can 'layoff their handles with each other, as well, to insure a profit from their composite handles.


From: princeofdoc


Trust me, there is no "laying off" with Derby futures in Vegas.  There are only two entities offering it right now, Circa and WH.  Their take is literally nothing......maybe 2-300K by the Derby.  More than that is wagered each pool in the parimutuel field. 

That's their volume....I remember talking with the main futures developer, Johnny Avello, past head of Wynn Sports, presently with DraftKings.  His best season was just under 400K, and of course they had plenty to pay out.  They hope to win a little, but they are a happy with a little risk.  A single NFL game is more of a risk than the entire Derby future pool


From: princeofdoc


All good far as I know, you are unable to bet these futures outside of NV, though I could be wrong, as sports betting continues to proliferate.  If WH is licensed in MI, for example, then they certainly will offer the same opportunity for a bet on the Derby.

Yes, Twinspires must pay out everything they take in, minus their vig (22%) which is not insignificant, in Vegas you're really playing more directly with other bettors and the risk management team of the casino interests offering the bets.

Thus, Circa could actually lose $$$ due to sharp bettors jumping in at the right time, whereas Twinspires will not.  For that we get better prices.....some bettors will go to NV just to make some serious bets :)


From: DogsUpWired


If you read what you said and what I responded to the poster: As a rule, Books layoff on sports. Bettors can layoff after event starts. 

The particular case sited of futures/ horses as you say is slim offerings/ pickings. And they hold it. 

I don't play or follow futures. Horses that haven't  run as a 2 yr old, I think won the Derby once.

If a late commer still under the odds radar as was in future and makes it in (perhaps hit the board) bankroll used to bet and is in race could box car the construction. 


From: Wintertrian


PISTOL9 said...

I looked over them briefly, Smile Happy was the only one I was considering.  Was 6-1 when I looked, so not great and not enough to bet this far out.   I was going to do exacta with him but forgot.   I bet Rattl n Roll, in Nov, but did not see any works on him on sheet so passed this time.  Of course these days he could just come out for a 100-150 race and go right to KD with 1/2 races.

I agree Pistol9, I hardly ever wager the futures anymore, precisely because "this far out".   I would need 18-1, 20-1 odds "this far out" if I could place the wager in LV.   

I'm sure there is a knack to all this, but for me there is gambling versus gambling

I'll leave the futures wagers to the big guys. 



From: smartyslew


Pool 3 derby Futures

E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 103 
Slow Down Andy                  96 107/ 91  101 Stalker
Pappacap                            100 106/ 91 100 Stalker
Forbidden Kingdom           100 106/ 84  95   front runner
Commandperformance    ¯100 106/ 83  96  stalker-weakened
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3
No., Horse, Trainer, P1, P2, P3 M/L

1. Barber Road, J. Ortiz, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1   e95  bris 92

2. Call Me Midnight, K. Desormeaux, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1  e98 beyer 88 bris 94,

3. Chasing Time, S. Asmussen, 3-5(f), 17-1, 15-1   e91 bris 89

4. Classic Causeway, B. Lynch, 44-1, 51-1, 50-1  e95  bris 94

5. Commandperformance, T. Pletcher, 31-1, 41-1, 50-1    e 102  bris 96 mdn

6. Early Voting, C. Brown, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 12-1  e81 bris 91

7. Emmanuel, T. Pletcher, 3-5(f), 17-1, 10-1   e98  beyer 89   bris 96

8. Epicenter, S. Asmussen, 52-1, 24-1, 15-1  e97  beyer 88  bris 93

9. Forbidden Kingdom, R. Mandella, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 10-1  e 106 beyer 97 bris 95
E1 E2/ LP  SPD =100 106/ 84  95 
10. God of Love, M. Casse, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1   e95  bris 87

11. Happy Boy Rocket, B. Mott, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1  e91  bris 87

12. Howling Time, D. Romans, 43-1, 9-5(f), 50-1  e 96 2 back  bris 87

13. In Due Time, K. Breen, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 30-1  e 100  beyer 92  bris 94

14. Major General, T. Pletcher, 43-1, 41-1, 30-1  e83  bris 83

15. Make It Big, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 85-1, 50-1 e89  bris 86

16. Mo Donegal, T. Pletcher, 37-1, 23-1, 30-1  e95 beyer 90  bris 92

17. Pappacap, M. Casse, 23-1, 24-1, 15-1 e96  bris 93, 100,96

18. Rattle N Roll, K. McPeek, 21-1, 20-1, 30-1 e100 needs more works, bris 95 10/9/21

19. Simplification, A. Sano, 3-5(f), 43-1, 30-1  e98  beyer 91  bris 92

20. Slow Down Andy, D. O’Neill, 3-5(f), 20-1, 20-1 e95  bris 101

21. Smile Happy, K. McPeek, 8-1, 8-1, 8-1  e 100   bris 98

22. White Abarrio, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 171-1, 8-1  e102 beyer 97, bris 97

23. Zandon, C. Brown, 56-1, 25-1, 30-1 e93  bris 93

24. Field (all others) 3-5, 9-5, 5-2

early speed 

110 Early Voting 106 Forbidden Kingdom 104 Epicenter 100 Commandperformance 99 Pappacap 98 White Abarrio
Late Speed 
116 Zandon 110 Emmanuel 109 God of Love 102 Call Me Midnight 102 Smile Happy 
rr 118 Comandperformance, Pappacap
cr 121 White Abarrio, 120 Commandperformance, Early Voting ,Epicenter, In Due Time, Mo Donegal,
Pappacap, Rattle N Roll, Simplification, Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy, Zandon