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KY Derby Futures   Triple Crown

Started 1/21/22 by Wintertrian; 6445 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/25/22

All good points.....as far as I know, you are unable to bet these futures outside of NV, though I could be wrong, as sports betting continues to proliferate.  If WH is licensed in MI, for example, then they certainly will offer the same opportunity for a bet on the Derby.

Yes, Twinspires must pay out everything they take in, minus their vig (22%) which is not insignificant, in Vegas you're really playing more directly with other bettors and the risk management team of the casino interests offering the bets.

Thus, Circa could actually lose $$$ due to sharp bettors jumping in at the right time, whereas Twinspires will not.  For that we get better prices.....some bettors will go to NV just to make some serious bets :)

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/25/22

If you read what you said and what I responded to the poster: As a rule, Books layoff on sports. Bettors can layoff after event starts. 

The particular case sited of futures/ horses as you say is slim offerings/ pickings. And they hold it. 

I don't play or follow futures. Horses that haven't  run as a 2 yr old, I think won the Derby once.

If a late commer still under the odds radar as was in future and makes it in (perhaps hit the board) bankroll used to bet and is in race could box car the construction. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

1/29/22

PISTOL9 said...

I looked over them briefly, Smile Happy was the only one I was considering.  Was 6-1 when I looked, so not great and not enough to bet this far out.   I was going to do exacta with him but forgot.   I bet Rattl n Roll, in Nov, but did not see any works on him on sheet so passed this time.  Of course these days he could just come out for a 100-150 race and go right to KD with 1/2 races.

I agree Pistol9, I hardly ever wager the futures anymore, precisely because "this far out".   I would need 18-1, 20-1 odds "this far out" if I could place the wager in LV.   

I'm sure there is a knack to all this, but for me there is gambling versus gambling

I'll leave the futures wagers to the big guys. 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/9/22

Pool 3 derby Futures
_

E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 103 
------
Slow Down Andy                  96 107/ 91  101 Stalker
Pappacap                            100 106/ 91 100 Stalker
Forbidden Kingdom           100 106/ 84  95   front runner
Commandperformance    ¯100 106/ 83  96  stalker-weakened
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3
No., Horse, Trainer, P1, P2, P3 M/L

1. Barber Road, J. Ortiz, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1   e95  bris 92

2. Call Me Midnight, K. Desormeaux, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1  e98 beyer 88 bris 94,

3. Chasing Time, S. Asmussen, 3-5(f), 17-1, 15-1   e91 bris 89

4. Classic Causeway, B. Lynch, 44-1, 51-1, 50-1  e95  bris 94

5. Commandperformance, T. Pletcher, 31-1, 41-1, 50-1    e 102  bris 96 mdn

6. Early Voting, C. Brown, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 12-1  e81 bris 91

7. Emmanuel, T. Pletcher, 3-5(f), 17-1, 10-1   e98  beyer 89   bris 96

8. Epicenter, S. Asmussen, 52-1, 24-1, 15-1  e97  beyer 88  bris 93

9. Forbidden Kingdom, R. Mandella, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 10-1  e 106 beyer 97 bris 95
E1 E2/ LP  SPD =100 106/ 84  95 
10. God of Love, M. Casse, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1   e95  bris 87

11. Happy Boy Rocket, B. Mott, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1  e91  bris 87

12. Howling Time, D. Romans, 43-1, 9-5(f), 50-1  e 96 2 back  bris 87

13. In Due Time, K. Breen, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 30-1  e 100  beyer 92  bris 94

14. Major General, T. Pletcher, 43-1, 41-1, 30-1  e83  bris 83

15. Make It Big, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 85-1, 50-1 e89  bris 86

16. Mo Donegal, T. Pletcher, 37-1, 23-1, 30-1  e95 beyer 90  bris 92

17. Pappacap, M. Casse, 23-1, 24-1, 15-1 e96  bris 93, 100,96

18. Rattle N Roll, K. McPeek, 21-1, 20-1, 30-1 e100 needs more works, bris 95 10/9/21

19. Simplification, A. Sano, 3-5(f), 43-1, 30-1  e98  beyer 91  bris 92

20. Slow Down Andy, D. O’Neill, 3-5(f), 20-1, 20-1 e95  bris 101

21. Smile Happy, K. McPeek, 8-1, 8-1, 8-1  e 100   bris 98

22. White Abarrio, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 171-1, 8-1  e102 beyer 97, bris 97

23. Zandon, C. Brown, 56-1, 25-1, 30-1 e93  bris 93

24. Field (all others) 3-5, 9-5, 5-2

early speed 

110 Early Voting 106 Forbidden Kingdom 104 Epicenter 100 Commandperformance 99 Pappacap 98 White Abarrio
Late Speed 
116 Zandon 110 Emmanuel 109 God of Love 102 Call Me Midnight 102 Smile Happy 
rr 118 Comandperformance, Pappacap
cr 121 White Abarrio, 120 Commandperformance, Early Voting ,Epicenter, In Due Time, Mo Donegal,
Pappacap, Rattle N Roll, Simplification, Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy, Zandon
--
Msg 1901.31 deleted
In reply toRe: msg 30
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/22

Updated  2/11/22
---

on our elite list 14 <
not on our elite list 9:  1-4-5-6-9-10-11-12-13
waiting to see Forbidden Kingdom stretch out, before he goes on our
elite 2 turn list. 
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS:      94 103/ 93 103 
------
Slow Down Andy                  96 107/ 91  101 Stalker
Pappacap                            100 106/ 91 100 Stalker
Forbidden Kingdom           100 106/ 84  95   front runner
Commandperformance    ¯100 106/ 83  96  stalker-weakened
__
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3
No., Horse, Trainer, P1, P2, P3 M/L

1. Barber Road, J. Ortiz, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1   e95  bris 92  

2. Call Me Midnight, K. Desormeaux, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 20-1  e98 beyer 88 bris 94,<

3. Chasing Time, S. Asmussen, 3-5(f), 17-1, 15-1   e91 bris 89 <

4. Classic Causeway, B. Lynch, 44-1, 51-1, 50-1  e95  bris 94  

5. Commandperformance, T. Pletcher, 31-1, 41-1, 50-1    e 102  bris 96 mdn  

6. Early Voting, C. Brown, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 12-1  e81 bris 91  

7. Emmanuel, T. Pletcher, 3-5(f), 17-1, 10-1   e98  beyer 89   bris 96 <

8. Epicenter, S. Asmussen, 52-1, 24-1, 15-1  e97  beyer 88  bris 93 <

9. Forbidden Kingdom, R. Mandella, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 10-1  e 106 beyer 97 bris 95  
E1 E2/ LP  SPD =100 106/ 84  95 
10. God of Love, M. Casse, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1   e95  bris 87  

11. Happy Boy Rocket, B. Mott, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 50-1  e91  bris 87  

12. Howling Time, D. Romans, 43-1, 9-5(f), 50-1  e 96 2 back  bris 87  

13. In Due Time, K. Breen, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 30-1  e 100  beyer 92  bris 94  

14. Major General, T. Pletcher, 43-1, 41-1, 30-1  e83  bris 83 <

15. Make It Big, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 85-1, 50-1 e89  bris 86  <

16. Mo Donegal, T. Pletcher, 37-1, 23-1, 30-1  e95 beyer 90  bris 92<

17. Pappacap, M. Casse, 23-1, 24-1, 15-1 e96  bris 93, 100,96 <

18. Rattle N Roll, K. McPeek, 21-1, 20-1, 30-1 e100 needs more works, bris 95 10/9/21 <

19. Simplification, A. Sano, 3-5(f), 43-1, 30-1  e98  beyer 91  bris 92 <

20. Slow Down Andy, D. O’Neill, 3-5(f), 20-1, 20-1 e95  bris 101 <

21. Smile Happy, K. McPeek, 8-1, 8-1, 8-1  e 100   bris 98 <

22. White Abarrio, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 171-1, 8-1  e102 beyer 97, bris 97 <

23. Zandon, C. Brown, 56-1, 25-1, 30-1 e93  bris 93 <

24. Field (all others) 3-5, 9-5, 5-2
--

early speed 

110 Early Voting 106 Forbidden Kingdom 104 Epicenter 100 Commandperformance 99 Pappacap 98 White Abarrio
Late Speed 
116 Zandon 110 Emmanuel 109 God of Love 102 Call Me Midnight 102 Smile Happy 
rr 118 Comandperformance, Pappacap
cr 121 White Abarrio, 120 Commandperformance, Early Voting ,Epicenter, In Due Time, Mo Donegal,
Pappacap, Rattle N Roll, Simplification, Slow Down Andy, Smile Happy, Zandon
-
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

2/13/22

I did the McPeek field exacta box.  RnR has had 3 works since last future.  Probably pointing to where they won in the fall.  Odds and exacta for him down quite a bit from when I checked early afternoon.  No W bet this time

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/14/22

Those look good, don't get off of them !!!!

Who do you like here ? 19 for Pletcher, Mo maybe.
-------

Pletcher: Who is going to finish the best in the Derby from this Field.
from this stable.  A little Much Don't you think. Back in the day
I would run a pool for this
---
Emannuel  16-1
Mo Donegal   18-1
Charge It    30-1
Commandperformance 30-1
American Icon 35-1
Major General  45-1
Iron Works     45-1
Wit          50-1
Varatti      75-1
Deans List  100-1
Double Thunder  100-1
Golden Code   125-1
Keepcalmcarryon 125-1
My Prankster  125-1
Annapolis    150-1
Power Agenda  175-1
Overstep     300-1
MidnightWorker  400-1
So Determined    400-1
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

2/14/22

I actually like Charge It out of his stable at this time....

In reply toRe: msg 35
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/18/22

Even though I've been "blowing off" the Ky Derby this year, and rarely do Future wagers anyway..... I had to laugh looking at my beginning post when I started the topic, from Jan 21st, Future Pool #1, I had no idea what i was doing and look how I picked:

Biggest Regret:   White Albarrio had run 3rd in the jockey club at that point, no Holy Bull yet. He wasn't even in the Future Pool #1 yet, but was 171-1 final odds in Future Pool #2 !!! pool closed on 1/23-- he had not run in the Holy Bull yet then either.........really regret not betting into the futures on this one... if he wins I will beat myself up) 


Classic Causeway had not won the Sam F. Davis yet. (44-1 in Pool 1) 
Smile Happy had alraedy won the jockey club and was (8-1 in Pool 1) 
Mo Donegal had won the Remsen ( 37-1 in Pool 1) 
Rattle N Roll had won the Futurity (21-1 in Pool 1) 
 

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages/?msg=1901.1

--Rattle n Roll
--Smile Happy
--White Albario
--Mo Donegal
--Classic Causeway


Still holding out for Rattle N Roll.  

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