Yeah, "doxa" was a running joke on this forum for a number of years but time to retire that one... 

I noticed that as well. I think it's a mistake not to get your pony to CD as soon as possible. Getting a couple breezes over the ground seems optimum to me.

Add the fact he's 4 for 4 @ GP and not CD makes him a pass for me in my exotics plays. Gotta take a look at pp's in the coming week(s) but right now i have a mild tri going of Mo D, Messier and either Zandon or Charge It. 

Weather and Post Position will be key.

He has already ran at CD.  Off the top of my head, Funny Cide and a few of BB horses did not come early, except AP.  That is a non issue for me.

Ran in jockey club at CD and took third that day.

Yes, it can be a non-issue, and there are certainly outliers who never set foot on CD dirt until Derby Day, and win.  My point was simply that to help in the handicapping, viewing how a horse gets over the ground at CD can be significant.  But of course, if there's slop, most will not have had any experience in CD off-track footing.

princeofdoc said...

White Abarrio made the front page today at DRF....Saffie is keeping him at GP to work before shipping to CD.  I think it's a mistake; I would want to see how he moves over Churchill.

princeofdoc said...

White Abarrio made the front page today at DRF....Saffie is keeping him at GP to work before shipping to CD.  I think it's a mistake; I would want to see how he moves over Churchill.

I would have to know his reasons for keeping the horse a certain track.  Did he say why?  I gotta know what a horse's "problems" are now, same as blinks/no blinks.   

I used to think "early to CD is necessary" but then I see Pletcher's been hiding Varatti down there in Palm Beach,  Simplification has only run at GS his entire career.   Maybe it's better for their musculoskeletal systems or something to be in wamer; maybe some horses don't fare well at busy tracks and they get nervous/anxious and that's no way to spend the months before a big race they lose emotionally and physically;   or sometimes high stamina horses need to learn speed so put em on a fast track;  sometimes speed horses need to build stamina so you send them to AQ, Oaklawn, Tampa, etc.  

So much of racing is poker, faking out the other trainers; trainers faking out the fans, etc.   I had to start learning this and try to not make rules for *their* horses because only the barn knows. 

All..

Perhaps Saffie doesn't have enough backup peeps to keep the business going and leave Gulfstream with colt and stay at Church. Or no one at Church to watch the store 

Definitely like the comparison to poker!  And you're right, so many dimensions.....are they "hiding"?  Have they noticed something about the horse, whereby they want to avoid the new surroundings, and bring the requisite fitness to him in a familiar environment and track?

We'll never be told real reasons during predictable interviews....though I was impressed by Chad's interview regarding Early Voting recently, saying that they will wait until the last minute to see in fact who is entered.  And if specific speed is entered, he is going to wait until the Preakness.  I liked his candor, and the reasoning made sense.

Sounds even less likely that Early Voting will go, now that Classic Causeway is in. Too bad, I would like to see him in the Derby, but gotta respect Brown’s decision.

It seems certain that Early Voting will not be entered.....sure, if Classic scratches, it's a possibility, but unlikely