This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I hope you have space on that bandwagon for me. I think I'm going with your horse in this one. I think that the Derby's relatively slow final time, exposed much of this crop. I expected the race to be run in fast time by the horses helped, not compromised, by the pace. Epicenter is a huge favorite, but I was not impressed, as he was able sit off the fast Derby pace, yet was not able to hold off "Richie". I think Creative Minister is an improving horse, that can definitely be in the mix, if he he takes another step forward. I'm not a huge fan of Brian Hernandez, but he's acceptable.
I think I'm actually going with Simplification.....and I'll be using Fenwick at the bottom of the exotics
RAESFAN said...I think Creative Minister is an improving horse, that can definitely be in the mix, if he he takes another step forward. I'm not a huge fan of Brian Hernandez, but he's acceptable.
RAES, Looks like the most common wager for the Preakness will be the combo of 8-5-4-1. So much so it's almost like a memorizable mantra/meme.
I still like CM. Preakness will actually be the shortest field he's ever run in. He's only run in fields of 11, 12, and then 11 again. I was lucky to get that win on him on the CD undercard with that field size, but this is a handicapping angle I use quite often. The bigger the field the more likely a horse will encounter and have to overcome "trouble". So I think young horses "learn more" this way?
Kenny owns a % of the horse so some of that $150K supplement came out of his own pocket, too. I've also seen CM take a lot of dirt in his face. If you noticed his conformation, he has a very long neck ( that sometimes helps at the finish line). Also nice long back legs.
I like all the horses in this race but am "rooting for" Creative Minister and Happy Jack just based on personal affinity w/certain horses. If Jack actually picks up his feet like he did in the San Felipe and SA Derby, he might even hit the board.
IF you use twinspires. you can claim the Get Your Win Bet back, up to $10, if horse runs ITM, so that sort of a free square if you believe in a horse.
Secret Oath probably would have been my Belmont horse just based on her pedigree but she’s running today. They may all still be drained by the time the Belmont rolls around.
Happy is adding blinkers and Changing Jocks, I think this could move him up.
I'm boxing CM/Epi/Simp in a small $30 tri
So I'll still have my CM guy somewhere on my Belmont ticket. I wasn't sure I'd still like him at this point, since it was Feb when I first started w/him and he had not even raced yet. Sometimes you just like what you see.
He can run on fast dry or slop, has the running style I like, stalker, 3-5 lengths behind before he gets going and then turns it on.
Got $165K for running 3rd in Preakness so they didn't lose on the supp fee.
He had his 1st "official timed" Belmont breeze on Tues, 4F in 48:33; Q mile in :24. Looked like a nice steady even gallop. It was hot and muggy. This is his next to last work before the big race. Rider didn't move a muscle, sat chilly.
But he's been galloping 1-1/4 miles every day with lighter gallops in between. And you can see his nice long stride.
I "think" McPeek understands this horse and is training him similar to Sarava.
Other horse who will be on my ticket: Golden Glider as I already said back on June 1st.
He just has some pedigree influences I like (which are a welcome respite from "just bet the Tapits!".) I often go out on a limb with many of my picks, but will try to present some cogent reasons. (Sometimes, that doesn't work either, because "conformation bias". We all look for justifications of why horses we like might win (IMHO) or did win. I just like to properly "explore" horses' backgrounds because I find the puzzle*interesting.*
This one has some of the right stuff......it just has to come together. There is often no logic to the way a pedigree translates to a track or distance like The Belmont Stakes, in such young horses, nobody really has a "formula" for that. It has to be their day, like it was for Rich Strike, Ruler on Ice, Mine That Bird, Un Ojo, Da'Tara, Oxbow, etc. Weird things have to happen with some of the runners, track bias, weather, etc. and often some major failings within the rest of the field has to happen. Once a year, I say "find a horse you like that has good odds and call out jeronimo!"
Influences I like in Golden Glider's pedigree:
--Awesome Again (1998) and Ghostzapper (2004) were the first sire and son to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
--His sire's sire, Awesome Again, sired multiple G1 winners besides Ghostzapper. Oxbow (2nd in BEL), Sir Winston, (won BEL) Paynter (2nd in BEL).
--- Intentionally - designated chef-de-race, sire of In Reality, Ta Wee and Tentam. Nicknamed "the Black Bullet", yes a sprinter. It lends speed.
--- Saratoga Six (by Alydar) Saratoga Six was also the BMS of Ruler on Ice - winner. Lukas paid $2,200,000 for Saratoga Six in the 80's ---- how much $$ would that represent now? He was undefeated in his only 4 races, and eventually died in that horrible barn fire.
---Blushing Groom (on both sides) sired Candy Stripes, BMS of Candy Ride (sire of Gun Runner).
-- Red God, Sire of Blushing Groom
--- sired Bold Forbes who won KY Derby and Belmont
--- He's a close relative to CAN TC winner With Approval on his dam side. Cool Mood was Dam of 1989 Canadian Broodmare of the Year Passing Mood. Passing Mood was the dam of Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval (Canadian Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year)
Golden Glider has been at Belmont since 5/01 !! Working and racing. He will be well-acclimated. I suspect that could improve his Last Q.
Sam Davis-Tampa Bay trajectory (worked for Destin 2nd in BEL).
Graded stakes to Tampa Bay to Bluegrass to Peter Pan trajectory worked for Sir Winston
Sir Winston - 1st Belmont - 2nd Peter Pan - 7th Blue Grass - 5th Tampa Bay Derby-(4th Withers)
Golden Glider - ? Belmont - 2nd Peter Pan, 4th Bluegrass- 4th -(5th Sam Davis)
Can also avoid the *Curse* that only 2 Peter Pan winners have won the Belmont in the last 30 years---because Golden Glider ran 2nd, he didn't win. haha).
Sir Winston didn't lose the Peter Pan by as much. Casse thinks as I do though, that the track condition played a part. Guess we'll see!
GG gets out-kicked, but if you watch his races, he "keeps on". I watched him "swoop in" in his race on Tapeta. He can turn it on in the stretch if Casse has him ready. He didn't have War of Will Ready. But he had Sir Winston ready. And that's why Tacitus paid a measly $3.90 to place, but Sir Winston paid $22.40 to win and $8.80 to place. You had to think out-of-the-box
And final 2 reasons, both somewhat nonsensical: For all practical purposes, comparing him to human hair dye, he's a *red-head*. Might be a good flyer wager for someone with a red-head in their life. :) Other reason: I love Ghostzapper.
Very well thought out! Thank you for sharing.