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Found my Belmont/Preak-Creative Minister   Triple Crown

Started 3/7/22 by Wintertrian; 4363 views.
In reply toRe: msg 23
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

Other horse who will be on my ticket: Golden Glider as I already said back on June 1st.

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages/?msg=2014.37. 

He just has some pedigree influences I like  (which are a welcome respite from "just bet the Tapits!".)  I often go out on a limb with many of my picks, but will try to present some cogent reasons.  (Sometimes, that doesn't work either, because "conformation bias".   We all look for justifications of why horses we like might win (IMHO) or did win.  I just like to properly "explore" horses' backgrounds because I find the puzzle*interesting.*

This one has some of the right stuff......it just has to come together.  There is often no logic to the way a pedigree translates to a track or distance like The Belmont Stakes, in such young horses, nobody really has a "formula" for that.  It has to be their day, like it was for Rich Strike, Ruler on Ice, Mine That Bird, Un Ojo, Da'Tara, Oxbow, etc.  Weird things have to happen with some of the runners, track bias, weather, etc. and often some major failings within the rest of the field has to happen.   Once a year, I say "find a horse you like that has good odds and call out jeronimo!" 

Influences I like in Golden Glider's pedigree: 

--Awesome Again (1998) and Ghostzapper (2004) were the first sire and son to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

--His sire's sire, Awesome Again, sired multiple G1 winners besides Ghostzapper.  Oxbow (2nd in BEL), Sir Winston, (won BEL)  Paynter (2nd in BEL).

---  Intentionally - designated chef-de-race, sire of In Reality, Ta Wee and Tentam. Nicknamed "the Black Bullet", yes a sprinter.  It lends speed. 
 
--- Saratoga Six (by Alydar)  Saratoga Six was also the BMS of Ruler on Ice - winner.  Lukas paid $2,200,000 for Saratoga Six in the 80's ---- how much $$ would that represent now?  He was undefeated in his only 4 races, and eventually died in that horrible barn fire. 

---Blushing Groom (on both sides) sired Candy Stripes, BMS of Candy Ride (sire of Gun Runner). 

-- Red God, Sire of Blushing Groom

--- sired Bold Forbes who won KY Derby and Belmont


--- He's a close relative to CAN TC winner With Approval on his dam side.   Cool Mood was Dam of 1989 Canadian Broodmare of the Year Passing Mood.  Passing Mood was the dam of Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval (Canadian Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year) 

 Campaign trajectory: 

Golden Glider has been at Belmont since 5/01  !! Working and racing.  He will be well-acclimated.  I suspect that could improve his Last Q. 

Sam Davis-Tampa Bay trajectory (worked for Destin 2nd in BEL).   
Graded stakes to Tampa Bay to Bluegrass to Peter Pan trajectory worked for Sir Winston
Sir Winston - 1st Belmont - 2nd Peter Pan - 7th Blue Grass - 5th Tampa Bay Derby-(4th Withers)
Golden Glider - ? Belmont - 2nd Peter Pan, 4th Bluegrass- 4th -(5th Sam Davis)

Can also avoid the *Curse* that only 2 Peter Pan winners have won the Belmont in the last 30 years---because Golden Glider ran 2nd, he didn't win.  haha).   

Sir Winston didn't lose the Peter Pan by as much.   Casse thinks as I do though, that the track condition played a part.   Guess we'll see!

GG  gets out-kicked, but if you watch his races, he "keeps on".   I watched him "swoop in" in his race on Tapeta.  He can turn it on in the stretch if Casse has him ready.  He didn't have War of Will Ready.  But he had Sir Winston ready.  And that's why Tacitus paid a measly $3.90 to place, but Sir Winston paid $22.40 to win and $8.80 to place.   You had to think out-of-the-box

And final 2 reasons, both somewhat nonsensical:   For all practical purposes, comparing him to human hair dye, he's a *red-head*.  Might be a good flyer wager for someone with a red-head in their life.  :)   Other reason:  I love Ghostzapper. 

pianot

From: pianot

Jun-6

Very well thought out! Thank you for sharing.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-13

For the 2023 Belmont Stakes:

Whitewalker stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye

And the beat goes on.....

In reply toRe: msg 26
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-16

McPeek said that Creative Minister just did not handle the deep track and will look for a better spot for him come summer.   

I imagine the Belmont can be any number of problems for horses, both a deep track, the 1-1/2 mi distance, etc.  

Congrats to Mo Donegal though.   He managed.   This is probably silly but I look over their bodies but faces, too, believe it or not it "helps" me.   As I posted before the race, Mo Don, that face, very handsome and regal to my eye.  Skippy sort of looks like his name, for instance.   I dunno, I think some horses just have a certain eye/nose/face that I like. 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-16

Wintertrian said:

This is probably silly but I look over their bodies but faces, too, believe it or not it "helps" me.   As I posted before the race, Mo Don, that face, very handsome and regal to my eye.  Skippy sort of looks like his name, for instance.   I dunno, I think some horses just have a certain eye/nose/face that I like. 

I know what you mean. It was Rock of Gibraltar for me.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jun-17

I think McPeek should have read the title to the thread.Creative Minister could have used the 5 weeks,might have been better to skip the Preakness.

In reply toRe: msg 29
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-19

Gerh said...

I think McPeek should have read the title to the thread.Creative Minister could have used the 5 weeks,might have been better to skip the Preakness.

I actually think it wouldn't have mattered, he had trouble with the deep surface at BEL, which I'm not sure more rest would have fixed.    I think the distance might have been a tad too long for him when combined with that deep surface.  If it were Churchill he may have done better at 1-1/4 but he started late so wasn't ready to run in the Derby.   He did have more speed than stamina in his profile to begin with.    Looking back I think they supplemented him to Preakness because they probably thought he would run ITM there and he did.   Although 5th in the Belmont isn't so bad.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-19

sovereign1 said...

I know what you mean. It was Rock of Gibraltar for me.

I can definitely see why!

A truly amazing runner as well.   And then, that name.  What a regal name.

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