This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 5/4/22 by princeofdoc
Latest 3:44 PM by twoshots
Latest 9:29 AM by DogsUpWired
Latest 9:02 AM by DogsUpWired
Latest 8:55 AM by DogsUpWired
Latest Feb-6 by smartyslew
Latest Feb-6 by PISTOL9
Latest Feb-5 by RAESFAN
Latest Feb-4 by smartyslew
Latest Jan-30 by Gerh
Latest Jan-29 by TexSquared
Latest Jan-28 by pianot
Latest Jan-28 by smartyslew
Latest Jan-22 by Wintertrian
Latest Jan-20 by RAESFAN
Latest Jan-14 by TexSquared
As of right now, I am only considering two for the W spot depending on works, post and field. So 18 others is too many to go over.
Oldbettowin said...I love Early Voting but it looks like they might wait for the Preakness. If they could get him to slow down just a little….
The fact that they've been so-so about him running made me lose a bit of faith. I really don't know what to think now.
It’s going to be interesting if EV and CC both stay in, giving the race some quality speed, something it hasn’t had much of in recent years. We’re all so used to the merry go round with a high E/P type winning….
Oldbettowin said...It’s going to be interesting if EV and CC both stay in, giving the race some quality speed, something it hasn’t had much of in recent years. We’re all so used to the merry go round with a high E/P type winning….
Indeed! I can tell you that I am even considering adding Tiz to my picks if he's 30-1 or more. The KY Derby is all about making a big score AFAIC. Any race, any day of the week, is easy to wager the 5/2, 2-1, 9/2 and the 5-1 in a superfecta. That isn't much of a score.
So i hope they do stay in. I think EV will have pretty good odds? If he drops out I will be happy to see Pioneer of Medina get in. And would love to see Barber Road hit the board....they are sticking with Reylu, they are a very loyal type of connections, down to earth, not going to toss their rider for some "big name", and trainer John Ortiz is a truly nice guy. He was a hot walker for Bill Mott.
Actually, at the rate people are tossing Simplification I may not have to bother with Tiz. :)
RAESFAN said...So far it's Summer Is Tomorrow. Too much sprinter/miler pedigree.
For sure. Hope he sticks around for the Preakness though.
Remember the year Orb won? Palace Malice went out and ran an insane first half mile. I don't think we'll see anything like that but you never know!
Was this you?
First I must give credit to Winter for this. I first heard it from her about 2 years ago on this forum. If a horse runs it's highest speed figure at 1 1/16 vs 1 1/8 as a 3YO it seldom hits the trifecta. I have only tracked this for the last 2 years so obviously it is a very small sample however it has held true for both those years. Last year it allowed me to eliminate some good horses (cuz you can't bet em all) like Gunnevera, McCraken, Tapwrit and more.
This year the (toss) list includes
Firenze Fire (Mile not 1 1/16)
Free Drop Billy (but severely blocked in his 1 1/8 which is always tough to deal with)
Good Magic ran the same so close
I am using the Brisnet not the Beyer because that is all I have to work with. Anyway thank you Winter and let's see if it holds true again this year.
For last year it would have eliminated:
Hot Rod Charlie - BCJuv 100, but never ran 9 panels, he won at 9.5 with a figure of 96; would winning at 9.5 be an exception?
Concert Tour - 8.5 and 9 matched at 95
Highly Motivated matched at 102 three times in a row
Did I do this right?
If this holds, then this year's elimination would include:
Rattle N Roll
Maybe this angle doesn't pick winners, but it might help whittle down the field for exotics.
That's really interesting. White Abarrio is one of the four that have a high enough racingpost rating to win, along with Taiba, Messier, and Zandon. This would seem to cut it to three.