If this holds, then this year's elimination would include:

White Abarrio

Cyberknife

Simplification

Barber Road

Un Ojo

Charge It

Ethereal Road

Rattle N Roll

Maybe this angle doesn't pick winners, but it might help whittle down the field for exotics.

I actually think it is a decent list. Just remove the one or 2 you like and knocks out 5. Cyberknife talk, and charge it GREEN clears those 2 from list.

Yes for win, but in a Tri there's about 3.5 colts in that mix that could land for a piece. 

The play is to spend enough for a mother load Tri. but if pays Derby Tri $300 for $2. Tri you get your money back + $9.

Tabia could run like last year's Santa Anita winner then no board hit in the Derby.  Colt beat 5 runner field in Santa Anita and no compression. 

Winner history...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Anita_Derby

Very helpful, thanks......now, to predict the best number going forward, and why.  I like Smile Happy to run his best number, mostly due to his progression.  But I am also curious about the Japanese horse, though the training methods are certainly different.....4 works the last 12 days, and the most recent one quite fast initially.

I'm also thinking Zandon progresses, and maybe Mo

See post 96 here. Regarding UAE Derby winner. Also in the Kentucky Derby official site read all 

smartyslew said...

Take Charge Lady is Part of The Rasmussen Factor With Tapit in that Pedigree thru her BM Sire Rubiano and Ruby Slippers the Rf Mare

Speaking of Take Charge Lady, Tami Bobo purchased Take Charge Indy when nobody else wanted him......at all.  She is quite the horsewoman (I think she started out pinhooking as a single mom to make ends meet down in Ocala with QHs and moves on to TBs.)   One of the reasons I like Simplification, who Tami owns. 

You may remember Tami and Take Charge Indy----who Haskins referred to as her "pet" ---their relationship was unusual, not just horse/trainer, but literally inseparable friends. ).  reminds  you a little of secretariat's owner, somebody who just *believes* in a horse and forms a close relationship with a horse:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2012/04/03/haskin-s-derby-trail-tami-and-indy-a-love-story.aspx

Yes I remember her The Bobo lady, is how i remember her, on Tv twice recently, she loves Simplification now !

For some reason, I always think of McPeek with TCL.  I know back in those days he got a horse for a couple regular guys for 20k that did very well.  I always thought that was her, but obviously that was another horse he got.  He got Harlans Holiday around the same time, but I am pretty sure it was a filly that he purchased.

OK I went and found it, it was She’s A Devil Due  purchased for 30k

How did you find that so fast ?

Just did a search on Brave and found this:

http://www.mcpeekracing.com/bloodstock-services.shtml

Every since I got interested in racing, McPeek was known for finding good deals relative to others.  This article mentions Noble's Promise and Kathmanblu.  I have friends who were involved in each of the groups who purchased those.  The former had the thrill of leading coming into the Derby stretch.

Yes, he's amazing at finding deals, no doubt.....now, can he get a horse prepared properly to win the Derby?