Depends how wet. It gets firm to a certain extent when the Churchill track is wet, kind of like running along the beach on the wet sand near the water.

Counter-intuitive Overanalizing up the rail on a sunny day wet cuppa track.

MONTY HALL factor of 3. Derby factor of 20.

https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0

As of right now....i have 8 for usage in my verticals or 40% of the field. Going to whittle it down to 4 in the next 2 weeks for a decent size super/box.

Yep i did toss the 3 you mentioned above for various reasons.

I'm waiting for the draw then I will do four $1 superfectas 

abc/abc/abc/defghijklm

abc/abc/defghijklm/abc

abc/defghijklm/abc/abc

defghijklm/abc/abc/abc

a - Epicenter

b- Messier

c - ???

Assume straight, I would put Crown in for third. 

I love Early Voting but it looks like they might wait for the Preakness.  If they could get him to slow down just a little….

Same here but i'm using 2 $1 super/boxes

I would, if I had a Derby horse; pass for the Preakness if;

The bad guys were holding my daughter and forced me to pass 

Lol!  I think they know he’s not going to slow down any.  
 

So who’s the best Dogs?  If I had to bet it today it would be on Messier.

Well asking for a spot on runner right this moment..here goes..

I'm a tri player for the Derby based on the robust 20 count. And have blabed here that this crop has many many possibilities to outrun the board and the one day player. And in this case they are mostly short $ players.

Yet if it runs cold dead nuts so be it.

So in a Trifecta state of mind; and I noted in my Diary that I will produce

my speed figures as to the Japanese colt being the  Delta colt (not necessarily the winner and my ticket is live if he runs out as well.

IF Japan colt tri  hits for Tri win  = spend lots of money on *kidding fast women, slow horses and good cigars...the rest of the payoff I'll just waste it.

I have already run the numbers ; UAE Derby against the $12 mil race at a 1/16 of furlong longer: Dubai big day (Life is Good fumbled, 2 US horses 1st + 2nd and times were pathetic in both races. Will post when extended time available.