sovereign1 said...

The more I look at your tosses, the more I want to play them.

You're welcome. :)    See, this is why giving picks and REASONS for them is so important.  Other people get something out of it.   

I absolutely respect anyone who gives their OWN reasons for liking or disliking a horse and I like to see the back-and-forth on it.   So I really respected Foresight's reasoning and him/her posting about their horse.  (despite that I didn't agree with the choice).  

What I don't respect, is after the post positiions come out, (my least favorite week of the year) when I pretty much stop looking at anything because all the "products" and "talking heads" come out of the woodwork, and people just start giving "picks", with none of their OWN reasoning at all.  (maybe they buy their opinions, I dunno)  .   On the forums I post on, no serious handicappers give respect for people who don't write a few sentences on why they picked who they picked......thousands of people have picks and they are a dime-a-dozen. 

f you can't explain WHY you like or dislike a horse, then no serious handicapper bothers reading your picks.    The number of guests signed in here, as well as the ones who contribute nothing, who just show up every year to benefit from other people's weeks and months of hard work, research and heavy lifting....but will never be able to cap a KY Derby successfully under their own steam. 

So that is why, in essence, I might disagree in a post about someone's pick..I want to make it clear that I did the work to reason out the chinks in their armour, (although I realize some people may misunderstand my doing that.)   I do it because I also think it "helps" others who are reading about the horses.  I also want other people to DING my picks, for the same reason.  Why I am wrong, call me out.  (so you didn't tell me exactly what you dislike about my some of the horses I liked yet, Sovereign-----that's okay, they aren't my final picks anyway, esp. w all the recent drop outs).  

TL;DR:    have reasons for your picks, and reasons for your tosses.  

Looks like an all-grey box for me if it rains because they are all Tapits and I like Tapits when the weather is wet.

White Abarrio - Charge It - Barber Road

that's a good mudder list.  I would add Messier to that if it's sloppy.  Is it SUPPOSED to rain?   I haven't heard, but one part of me was hoping it will as I already have my "mudder derby" picks fleshed out. (always have 2 tickets, one for dry, one for wet). 

Tell me why Messier if it's wet?

Thunderstorms Friday 93%

Showers Saturday 63%

Should be a muddy to sloppy track for the Oaks. 

Probably a dry track for the Derby according to weather reports i've been reading.

White Abarrio, Charge It, Messier...no prior off track experience.

Barber Road, 2nd place/Smarty Jones/sloppy

Ethereal Road, 3rd place/Maiden/Muddy....7th place/Blue Grass/ Good(off track??)

Smile Happy, 2nd place/Blue Grass/Good

Crown Pride, 6th place/Hyacinth Sk/Muddy

Zandon, 1st place/Bluegrass/Good

Epicenter, 1st place/Louisiana Derby/Good

These are your "mudders" for the derby if the weather is bad.

Looking for pp's for the Oaks.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&param1=3740&param2=408&param3=1490214
 

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=12&param1=4080&param2=476&param3=1625688

Well that didn’t work lol.  Just go here http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm  then there’s free pp’s by trainer.

Look at Zandon's face in the Bluegrass stretch run if you are uncertain of the track conditions of that race. 

sovereign1 said...

Tell me why Messier if it's wet? Thunderstorms Friday 93% Showers Saturday 63%

I think the track will be drying out on Sat by time Ky Derby is run.  at any rate, to answer your question, years of comparing horses who run well (not just the win spot) on slop tracks in any TC races (Musket Man, Mine That Bird, Ice Box, Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Exaggerator, Cherry Wine, Orb,  Revolutionary, Pioneer of the Nile, Make Music for Me (too many others to name), certain DIs seem potent for running ITM (or destroying a superfecta) in TC races.  Messier's 3.44 for that angle.  From 1940 to Justify, horses with a DI of 3.00 or higher win 35% of Ky Derbies and their stats on superfecta/ITM are much much higher.  So, I always give them an extra look, and then I look at pedigrees, which in Messier's case, w/ 40 dosage points, plus a sire, BMS, and Dam with 40+ to 50+, just not a horse pedigree-wise I would leave off a ticket, rain or shine?  I look for the top stamina breedings and the top speed breedings, and those are my top horses and everyone else is a fill-in for longshots in exotics.