Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 521
    MEMBERS
  • 30562
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Toss for the WIN spot   Triple Crown

Started 4/22/22 by Wintertrian; 10549 views.
In reply toRe: msg 86
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

5/2/22

Well that didn’t work lol.  Just go here http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm  then there’s free pp’s by trainer.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

5/2/22

Look at Zandon's face in the Bluegrass stretch run if you are uncertain of the track conditions of that race. smile

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/22

sovereign1 said...

Tell me why Messier if it's wet? Thunderstorms Friday 93% Showers Saturday 63%

I think the track will be drying out on Sat by time Ky Derby is run.  at any rate, to answer your question, years of comparing horses who run well (not just the win spot) on slop tracks in any TC races (Musket Man, Mine That Bird, Ice Box, Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Exaggerator, Cherry Wine, Orb,  Revolutionary, Pioneer of the Nile, Make Music for Me (too many others to name), certain DIs seem potent for running ITM (or destroying a superfecta) in TC races.  Messier's 3.44 for that angle.  From 1940 to Justify, horses with a DI of 3.00 or higher win 35% of Ky Derbies and their stats on superfecta/ITM are much much higher.  So, I always give them an extra look, and then I look at pedigrees, which in Messier's case, w/ 40 dosage points, plus a sire, BMS, and Dam with 40+ to 50+, just not a horse pedigree-wise I would leave off a ticket, rain or shine?  I look for the top stamina breedings and the top speed breedings, and those are my top horses and everyone else is a fill-in for longshots in exotics. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/22

ChiefsCrown said...

Should be a muddy to sloppy track for the Oaks. 

Probably a dry track for the Derby according to weather reports i've been reading.

Thank you!

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

5/2/22

Wow! Thanks for the lesson! Looks like I have some midnight oil to burn....

pianot

From: pianot

5/2/22

I found Oaks race could be interesting.

ShaddyisBack

From: ShaddyisBack

5/2/22

I am starting to wonder if this one breaks down on the front end due to too much pressure and speed up front. A couple of horses got nothing to lose here by going out early, yet Zos breaking from so far out, thrown in so many that want to JUST SIT OFF the lead and that leaves no room, and a messy race.

Looks like there are 6 - 8 Good horses, 4 -6  that are so so and 8 that dont belong

pianot

From: pianot

5/2/22

If it goes under 1:12 for six, will be surprised.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/22

sovereign1 said...

Thanks for the lesson! Looks like I have some midnight oil to burn....

not really, because it's only using a single theory.   There are lots more, as you know.  I often do not know how to interpret, for instance, horse who actually ran in a wet race during prep season and IF THAT RACE even means anything, based on who they beat?  And all "slop" isn't the same consistency, at Oaklawn, which is only one I know for certain because I've stepped on it, picked it up, and held it in my own hands, and watched hooves in it, it gets "sticky like peanut butter" which is not a characteristic of all muddy tracks, and not even true of Oaklawn when they seal it and make it really fast for the bigger stakes races.   

So really, I don't know how to quantify mud or mud stats so I use what I do know or have observed.  

Somebody gave me a list of mud sires for Oaklawn track a long time ago and so far, it has worked pretty good but the sires are now way outdated.  

TOP