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I took a peek back at the last 20 runnings or so using your theoretical formula.... And wow... It works in practice. If you add the DPs of the Sire, BM and BMS, it should be > 60, even if one of the three is 50. Sure there will be outliers, but for this particular race it seems very useful. Looks interesting to work out in the off-season and if it would work for ITM on a dry-track Derby.
sovereign1 said...Sure there will be outliers, but for this particular race it seems very useful. Looks interesting to work out in the off-season and if it would work for ITM on a dry-track Derby.
I have never really tracked it for dry fast tracks, there would be too many, and slop tracks come up less often so it was easier to track for me to just find some TC races that were sloppy as of late.
Lets just say that Steve Roman knew what he was doing in some areas, and I truly miss his PFs (performance figures) which I found utterly helpful while capping the KY Derby (better for me than Equibase and Beyer figs at least but he was also able to fit his PFs into those "languages" for those that only understood those). That, and his "energy ratings", how much energy horses expended doing what they did. Nobody really quantifies this stuff like he did. There is no need to toss out every part of what was on his chef-de-race pages, if you combed over them enough. Whether or not the "dosage theory in general as a whole" works or not, parts of it worked great.
Now see, I am expecting a 1:11, or even faster, 110.4
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Let's hope for decent weather!!
With a stellar field like this one i hope so.
Right now i have 2 tri/boxes going
Mud/box-----Secret Oath/ Venti Valentine/ Kathleen O
Dry/box------Secret Oath/ Venti Valentine/ Nest
I'll have to check the BG out again
No one likes Echo Zulu in he mud?
I don't feel like doing to much work this year. I'm going to simplify things by not looking outside the 12 post for the winner. I will sort things out between eight horses; 1, 3, 5-8, 10, 12. I may construct an exacta from that group as well.
I think the track may be dry by derby time. 36% chance of showers, less frequent in the afternoon is what I’m seeing now. I like Epicenter or Messier on top, with some bombs sprinkled into the 2-3 slots, which I have yet to determine based on odds, foundation, etc., along with closers Zandon and Mo. Gives me at least an outside shot at a decent hit.