This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I think Cox was smart to enter a $1 million race instead of the harder preps at Fairgrounds like the Risen Star, despite that his horse is based at the Fairgrounds. Since OP is my home track we were all aghast that it came up so weak, like a lot of dumb trainers out there who didn't bring their horses to a million dollar race where PPs convinced everyone that the filly was "the class of the field" (and I have a post showing she really wasn't class) but that alone would have told you something. All that showed up for that race were a group of horses who beat up on each other all season, and the filly went off at lower odds than she should have simply because of her gender (and equibase insistence that she was the class of the field and somehow the one to beat).
Cox was smart. He found the race to put his horse into. But I will strongly disagree with anyone who says it wasn't a weak field. The sigh of disappointment when we all saw who was running was palpable. For a $1 million race, it boggles the mind.
Well go ahead and put Mike Welsch from DRF's "Clocker Report" on the payroll too. After the Arkansas Derby, Cyberknife was ranked 10th on Bloodhorse.com "Dirty Dozen". Since his two workouts at Churchill Downs he has moved up to 3rd on the Dirty Dozen list.
In the Lecomte Stakes, Brad Cox put the blinkers on him and he ran his worst race to date. In his next race on the Risen Star Day race card, they entered him in a 2nd level Allowance race at 1 1/16ths, took the blinkers off and he ran 2/5ths of the track record. Of course, he came back and won the Arkansas Derby.
Cyberknife finished 1st. in his debut as a 2yr. old at Churchill Downs in 1:09 3/5ths but was disqualified for erratic behavior. Talent has never been this horse problem getting him to focus and run to his potential was the issue. According to Brad Cox and Florent Geroux, Cyberknife is finally understanding how to run and he is improving at the right time.
I was referring to Ken Ramsey’s recent issues with paying his trainers.
Cyberknife was bred by Ken Ramsey but he is not the owner.
Secret Oath is a very good horse, just not good enough to take on males at a 1 1/8th. She ran a very good race considering she was shuffled back to last and made a sweeping run at the 3/8ths pole and came within two lengths of Cyberknife but could not sustain and got tired the last 1/16th. In her race (Honeybee Stakes) before the Arkansas Derby she beat Yuugirl by 9 1/2 lengths and Yuugirl came back and won the Fantasy Stakes on the same race card as the Arkansas Derby. What's funny is that Yuugirl ended up getting a better speed figure than Secret Oath even though Secret Oath beat Yuugirl by 9 1/2 lengths two months back.
Oaklawn is my home track. I play it ...... daily. I play with an oaklawn group for 20+ years, we never miss a day of capping every race of the meet.
Not arguing that Cyberknife may be coming into his own. And I never said that. Not sure why you are trying to convince me about something I didn't say or contest. :)
What I did say is that, knowing the backgrounds and race records of every horse in that race, you'd be hard pressed to claim the Arkansas Derby was a "strong prep race." (And if you do think that, then you're welcome to think that anyway). Also, if you can find my post about why Sacred Oath wasn't *actually* the class of anything, which I wrote in detail before the race, you can read it, if I find it I will link you to it. I plotted out every race she ran and who she ran against (other females, not males.....and she didn't really beat anybody, certainly not the likes of some of the females who have won big races at OP). As a result, I did not have her to win.
I think Smartyslew got the winner correct in that race.
I actually LIKE cyberknife, and hope he gets a clean dry fast track to run the derby on. No problem that he will get the distance...... but he is also very stamina laden and therefore I probably wouldn't put him as high up on mud. My concerns are that Arkie Derby was not a key prep race, his final 3/8 and final Q don't make the grade, so I wonder about his ability for a late kick, and his best 2 turn Beyer Speed number is only a 92, far below about 11 other horses in the race (not having figs for the UAE horses).
But I love that you have a passion for your horse. And I also invite any and all to poke holes in horse I like, because that is the only way I learn ....... I may not see things that others see and it really helps my handicapping. QUite often people will tell me stuff I never even saw. But if I don't agree with them I will still fight for "my" horse. LOL
Sorry, I was not trying to convince you of anything I was just sharing information. You responded to my post and I replied to your comments. Originally, I started on this forum back in 2004 but got turned off by some of you people and stayed away for a long time. I see I haven't missed much.
Wow. That was kind of out of left field wasn’t it?
OldForesight said...You responded to my post and I replied to your comments.
Yes, I responded----and part of my response was that I disagreed with you when you said "I still hope most of you will continue to regard the Arkansas Derby as weak."
I disagreed because, for a later prep race on the road to the derby, the entire field of 9 had 7 horses who had only won maidens or allowance races. That is not a typical Arkansas Derby, and not a typical prep race in the month of April before the KY Derby .
So, what part of my post "offended" you? Was it just my stated belief that it was a weak race?
(I guess I don't understand the point of starting a topic if you don't want a *discussion*)
This isn't the only one. We have track announcers (probably even the one from OP as well), jockey agents, well known cappers saying the same thing. It was sort of an "embarassment" because our track usually hosts some pretty potent races, and this year...........that didn't happen.
But that also does not mean your horse isn't a good horse. And I also said that.