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We all know how important the trainers are, and many of us have personal feelings about several. My main question is how well can they prepare their horse for a race like the Derby.....to win. Asmussen and Brown, celebrated trainers, have yet to figure out a way to do so. One may also question Cox too, though he is now a Derby winner, albeit with an asterisk. One of them may win this year's edition, but I wonder if they have learned what is necessary. Asmussen couldn't win with Curlin, but he'll probably have the favorite on Saturday......so another chance?
I, personally, have been very impressed with the interviews, even the tactics, of the younger John Ortiz. I watched his Ark. bred colt just win the Bachelor, while I was strongly on Cogburn, one of Asmussen's two excellent colts. Ortiz sprang the upset; after a bullet work a week ago. He seemed humble in his post-race interview, and he also showed that he definitely handicapped the race with his rider, telling him to sit just behind Cogburn.
I liked him. I think I'll now be playing Barber Road on the bottom of the exotics, not only because I think he has a chance, but Ortiz makes you want to root for him. He could be an up-and-coming trainer in Ark....though I'll wait to hear how Winter feels about him in that regard :)
If a trainer has 3 colts in the race he still has only a 5% chance of going into the Rose presentation. But 100% x 3 weaving through the land mines as Chad Brown puts it.
It takes a ton of skill sets to be a tbred trainer.
If Dogs was a trainer :) I'd enjoy wearing the costumes. In the AM works..Logo hat, jeans, stable name on vest and everything else, barn, truck; horse,tack, dog.
Then at the races... natty suit, tie or sports coat get up...and The Hat. Smaller gentleman- like fedora. And after taking down the roses I'd give the hat to a young fan.
Kelly Breen is my hat go to guy.
If he has three horses in the race wouldn’t he have a 3 in 20 or 15% chance of winning, all things being equal?
I was hoping you would respond to my 60 mileS and 120 miles from the Indiana airport ditty. Is this fun or what?
Trainer can only win with one horse, has to best the other 2
The other two/owner + jockey can beat him. And in composite field has to beat 19 out of 20.
But in a Triple Dead Heat my math using the Tesla mathematical theory makes it possible.
But what I just dreamed in a nap was my longest of win keys came in.. top Longest odds horse; was followed by very impossible long shots for 2nd and 3rd and they both dead heated giving me 2 win tickets.
I really hope they don't run cold. Beat me.
I have my suspicions of Cox as well.I think Dallas Stewart is a great horseman and I find it strange that his apprentice is enjoying much more success than him.Having said that,I don’t think his derby win should have an asterisk.He hasn’t been proven of any malpractice
Not suggesting malpractice.....simply that his horse did not cross finish line first
Can Zozos, Tawny Port, or Cyberknife remove Cox’s asterisk? Along with Pletcher and O’Neil they’re the only trainers this year that have a derby win.
I really do not understand O'Neill's entry at all.....may go off as the longest price in years. He's still 120-1 at Circa, hard to imagine he'll go off that high though.
Yes, Cox and Pletcher are loaded this year.....but Brown and Asmussen, highly regarded trainers with great stock, both feel they have their best chance this year.
Though it's the first for Yakteen, he's bringing two who have been trained/received by Baffert. There's no question that he has attracted the highest priced horses over the last many years. But he has never brought a horse that has raced in the SA Derby and only had one published work after. In fact, I don't know of any trainer that has brought a horse into the Derby like that, so that's interesting. Does Yakteen know what a Derby-ready horse looks/feels like? Is Baffert hoping that Yak fails, further emphasizing that HE makes the difference?
And McPeek.....has been to the Dance previously, but unsuccessfully. Has he made the right decisions? This last work for Smile Happy was unremarkable, couldn't get him to make up ground on his work mate, looked just average, with Tiz not much better.
Saffie is excited, emotional, with a colt that has over-achieved....will he continue to do so? Is he bringing something to the training that Ortiz does, with half-brothers that are now the top progeny for Race Day?
Or will Shintani, with highly unorthodox yet extremely effective methods in Japan, bring his magic over to the US?
Chad just announced, as expected, that Early Voting will not race in the Derby, rather wait until the Preakness.....speaking that he feels the pace of the race does not set up well for his colt. Wow.