Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 514
  • 29533
  • 1


Kentucky Derby Picks & Analysis   Triple Crown

Started May-3 by OldForesight; 494 views.

From: OldForesight


Smile Happy - I am picking Smile Happy to win the derby.

In his two derby preps he was second to Zandon and Epicenter, who are the two favorites in the derby. If you believe the trainer and the jockey, the two prep races were just that.  They were prep races.

He came back from a three-month layoff and was second to Epicenter in the Risen Star. With the points total from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the Risen Star, Smile Happy had enough points to earn him a spot but McPeek said the horse needed another prep race before the derby and ran him the in Blue Grass Stakes.  There was not any pressure to win the Blue Grass because the main goal was to get Smile Happy 100% ready for the derby. McPeek, believe Smile Happy will run his best race in the derby.  And I think he is good enough to win.   

In reply toRe: msg 1

From: OldForesight


I am going against Epicenter, Mo Donegal and Taiba, for the following reasons. 

Epicenter for the most part have had things his own way at the Fairgrounds. The one time he got challenged on the pace in the Lecomte Stakes he was beaten. He is coming off of a six week layoff and now is going up against horses that are cranked-up to run their best race. 

Mo Donegal ran his derby race in the Wood Memorial. So much so that Todd Pletcher has been careful not to do too much with in his workouts.

The same thing can be said about Taiba, only one workout since his win in the Santa Anita Derby and they are careful not to do too much with him. It is going to take more than just talent to win the derby. There is not much foundation in him and plus he missed a workout two weeks before the derby. Not good.            


From: GioPonti


The favorites are obvious (and for good reason), but in looking for overlays, how about the two home bred “cheap” $5K fillies Venti and Desert in the Oaks into the major players in the Derby, Epicenter and Zandon?