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You "almost" provided info this time when naming 8 horses. Yet picked one.
But then UAE Derby winner as the pick, you covered by saying the UAE trend would likely continue.
In a 20 horse field there are usually 6 colts that can be tossed.
You call out 8
The pros call out 3
The members here call out max 4 on avg
Many here call out even less.
My Superfecta for the race first 4 horses as per me
Summer is tomorrow
If the trend is Favourite to win then from the first 2/3 on totebaord my Choice is Epicenter but if it is fluke then Crown Pride should win. Crown Pride wins the Summer is tomorrow will follow and if Epicenter Wins Tawny Port should be in place.
That is better. I like Crown Pride as well.
The times UAE Dby and the $12 mil world cup were off by 3 maybe 4 seconds.
The surface looked like they groomed it with grenades.
Life is Good had a soft mile on the lead and then his legs were gone. Tired running the soft mile then his legs were gone. Closers didn't take as much out of their horses early on and to the mile and had something left.
And I have said prior that Hot Rod Charlie really shows up and can handle any surface put in front of him (as another factor to the times and surface that day.
OK. The 4 races of Crown Pride and posted in my Diary - here and available on YouTube: see race where colt is restrained..
The jockey Twice almost has to pull the reins / pull up. Cause the colt is ready to initiate a want to go-go
This twice maneuver is perhaps why the colt does change leads later. Yet in the stretch he is lower to the ground and running style looks like back hoe equipment digging into the ground..
Nobody asked me, and I'd need an interpreter, and yet think they may try it as a plan...let the colt run earlier. Won't lose the restraint time and when later asked to switch leads; most likely happen. They say they have correct lead switch. Jockey's only mount in the 2 days. Summer is Tomorrow jock has a mount today; Friday.
Summer is Tomorrow will be out fast and has carried more weight at 6 fl. Folliwed his grass sire who was ITM at up to G2s and longer not a winner @ 9.
Tiz the Bomb appears to be the Spoiler for modest tickets
If only Sham... did something today in the Oaks.
Messier / Taiba / Epicenter / Charge it
Long shots mixed in for exacta and tris are Simplification, smile happy, and Tiz the Bomb.
Each one of these 3 I cover by playing an exacta box 1/all, 2/all,3/all (yes, 2 tickets are losers), maybe all 3, yet in the 20 horse field anything can happen. So much dumb money, like these bets are in the pool and justify the flyers in my opinion.
No, I dont or wont play other races the same way.... But, would be mad at myself if Simplification was to win and anyone else comes in 2nd. Especially a 10 - 20 -1
I could see as an example a simplification , (charge it) followed by Epicenter, Messier, Mo Donegal,Taiba,, White Abario, etc)
Feel like I need to make my case for such a dumb bet once a year. That exacta in this pool would pay 900
No time to look at your will pays double, but are they paying enough to do wheels in Derby?
1. You could take the amount that would be won and dutch it with the idea of making more
2. If a large amount of DD money, take a profit from that and play Dutch.
3) White Abarrio
5) Crown Pride
If the Trend is Favourite to win then Epicenter has got the best chance and Trainer can win this derby which was missing in his profile.
for an upset and also my first choice is Crown Pride.
among the other runners Summer is Tomorrow and Tawny Port are the once who have good place chance in the first four. Most probably UAE derby trend may continue here also.
Enjoyed seeing your "probable" winners. You are correct in that it's a tough field to narrow down this year. Also like your longshots. Thanks for sharing them. Going for the gusto, good luck this year.
2 Derby selections....
1) Mo Donegal / Messier / Taiba / Epicenter $1 tri/box
2) Mo Donegal / Messier / Smile Happy / Rich Strike $1 super/box
Realistally RS might not make the top but i'd kick myself for eterinity if this came in and i didn't play it