If only Sham... did something today in the Oaks. 

Messier / Taiba / Epicenter / Charge it

Long shots mixed in for exacta and tris are Simplification, smile happy, and Tiz the Bomb.

Each one of these 3 I cover by playing an exacta box 1/all, 2/all,3/all (yes, 2 tickets are losers), maybe all 3, yet in the 20 horse field anything can happen. So much dumb money, like these bets are in the pool and justify the flyers in my opinion.

No, I dont or wont play other races the same way.... But, would be mad at myself if Simplification was to win and anyone else comes in 2nd. Especially a 10 - 20 -1 

I could see as an example a simplification , (charge it) followed by Epicenter, Messier, Mo Donegal,Taiba,, White Abario, etc) 

Feel like I need to make my case for such a dumb bet once a year. That exacta in this pool would pay 900

No time to look at your will pays double, but are they paying enough to do wheels in Derby?

1. You could take the amount that would be won and dutch it with the idea of making more 

2. If a large amount of DD money, take a profit from that and play Dutch.

Pedigreestar said...

1) Epicenter 

2) Messier

3) White Abarrio

4) Taiba 

5) Crown Pride 

6) Simplification.

If the Trend is Favourite to win then  Epicenter has got the best chance and Trainer can win this derby which was missing in his profile.

for an upset and also  my first choice is Crown Pride. 

among the other runners Summer is Tomorrow and Tawny Port are the once who have  good place chance in the first four. Most probably UAE derby trend may continue here also.

Enjoyed seeing your "probable" winners.  You are correct in that it's a tough field to narrow down this year.   Also like your longshots.  Thanks for sharing them.  Going for the gusto, good luck this year. 

2 Derby selections....

1) Mo Donegal / Messier / Taiba / Epicenter $1 tri/box

2) Mo Donegal / Messier / Smile Happy / Rich Strike $1 super/box

Realistally RS might not make the top but i'd kick myself for eterinity if this came in and i didn't play it

ChiefsCrown said...

2) Mo Donegal / Messier / Smile Happy / Rich Strike $1 super/box

Realistally RS might not make the top but i'd kick myself for eterinity if this came in and i didn't play it

That was a good instinct, Chief!    I bet you ARE kicking yourself now though, because you put him in a superfecta.  Next time you get an "elbow jab from the heavens" (what I call it) , play the horse w/p/s.   

My future strategy, in addition to the homebreds,  will include, no matter who it is, the dreaded Post 17.   I think that one was higher odds than Rich Strike?    WHy play it?   Cause for very little money EVENTUALLY A HORSE WILL WIN FROM THERE and probably at high odds. 

Yeah i had a "why aren't you using the long shot?" She did and won. 

I should have played my instinct an used Rich Strike (long shot) and Epicenter (favorite) in a cheap exacta box. Would have been $4k richer today.

The pace screwed most of my tickets. Oh well onto Baltimore as they say. Other than my wife who knew?

Please let us know her choice for the Preakness!     

I think she mentioned she likes Un Ojo as well as Rich Strike. Not swaying her picks at all. 

One thing she's addiment about that i usually do is change picks. Once she picks it's a dead nuts lock!!