This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Think jockey race for Key wheel Tris
Irad Ortiz Jr
In 1st 2nd + 3rd key
Then the usual suspects
Prat (perhaps a tie with above 2)
No lesser LEMAIRE his only ride over the 2 days.
The tosses and the rest of the field are what the player wants to play by $. There are IMO 5 to 6 tossers-beat me in Tri.
My long shot hamburger helper in Tri is Tiz the Bomb, maybe super.
White Abbario is hot with handicappers-Andy Beyer pick. He picked winner last year and is like 2 for 40. But his pick hits down under. Like anyone he could pick 3 no board.
Public will like this grey roan. Out of GP Florida Derby as last he was 1:11 @ 6fl running 3rd in 11 field; 136.2, final 50.3. Gaffalione is a leading rider GSPk. Geroux is most under the radar/underrated.
No one says is this the year a 1st for Japan's star. Mine Bird was 2yr old Canadian star. After big show of Japan in BC and Pegasus day..they are a force.
Hoofnote: Animal Kingdom campaign came by way of turf to Turfway Park plastic track to win Derby. This is about exactly what Tiz the Bomb's campaign is. He missed the track 9fl record by a needed nostril.
Hoofnote Deux: Husker give a shout out if you are amongst us!
I have reasons for believing Messier will win. I also have reasons to believe Epicenter will win. I also have reasons to believe Taiba will win. I also have reasons to believe Barber Road will finish second and not just because of his seconditis. I also have misgivings about each one. Did JR ease up a bit on Messier once he knew Taiba had them? Is Epicenter fast enough? Did Taiba get the best butt rub in the SA Derby?
I already bet a little on Barber Road. I’m going to bet probably another $100 on the derby today so not really swinging for the fences but at least giving it a shot. I don’t think Epicenter will win. Going with JR and Messier to win and I’m going to play some exacta and trifecta wheels with Messier keyed in first and BR and CC keyed in second and third. Leaving Epicenter out, which I will probably regret lol.
Possible for honors underneath: Barber Road, Classic Causeway, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, Zozos, Tiz the Bomb, Tawny Port, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Smile Happy.
Crown Pride to win at 15-1 or higher, otherwise I sit it out. [I'm betting the house, baby - 20 bucks ]
5 dollah exacta box - Crown/White Abarrio/Epicenter/Simplification
Good luck to everyone who decides to play. Most of all, have fun.
My main ticket is a 10/20/40 on Zandon. I was going to play someone else if his odds stood in the area of 3-1.
Then my exotic 50-cent Trifecta
And then my $5 "Stick it where the sun don't shine but with all my love, From Bob B." Exacta box: Messier, Taiba
For outside shots I like Pioneer of Medina and Zozos who have seasoning and good final-quarter times; and Tiz The Bomb just intrigues me. Not a good record on dirt, but he has the perfect name to blow up the exotics, and just might be fast enough.
$1 exacta: Epicenter, Messier, Tis The Bomb, Zandon over those four, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina, Zozos
$1 tri: Epicenter, Messier/those 2, Mo Donegal, Zandon/those 4, Tiz The Bomb, Pioneer of Medina, Zozos.
$5 saver to win on Crown Pride
$5 WPS White & Crown
$2 ex box- white crown epi simp zan
B: Taiba, Messier
C: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Smile Happy
D: Charge It, Tiz the Bomb, Zozos, Simplification
Various combos, centered heavily on Epicenter in the win spot.
If the track continue to play the same way it has been playing since opening day, then closers are doomed. Unless a horse is much the best such as Secret Oath, if you are not forwardly placed and within six lengths off the lead you are not going to win.
My pick is Smile Happy. I expect him to fall in behind the leaders, save ground along the rail and make his move at the 3/8ths pole. Not to mention jockey Cory Lanerie is the second winningest jockey at Churchill Downs with 19 riding titles.
Ex. Smile Happy/ Messier and Charge It.
Great stuff, Winter and very funny!!
I plan to do a bunch of "one-off" Superfectas and some Super Hi 5's.
I will be playing these 8 horses in varying combinations:
Pioneer of Medina
Tiz The Bomb
Good luck everyone!