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and this one still can't break maiden   Handicapping

Started May-8 by Wintertrian; 830 views.

From: Wintertrian


was on some people's early Derby list (becasue of Saratoga) 

We should talk about the "always a bridesmaid" horses some time, try to figure out why they just can't win.  

One of my "derby angles" is to really look more carefully at the early winners at SAR like Major General and Bourbon Heist.   So many of them fizzle out by the time the Derby comes along.  (yes, i'm serious, I take off points for running at SAR....Major General, Classic Causeway, Rattle N' Roll, High Oak, Ottoman Empire, Volcanic and even Red Run   this year.   I do think they are good for the prep races though) 


From: princeofdoc


Well, the horse has earned a fair amount of $$$ even though not winning :)

I think they rush horses to the races as young 2 year olds, especially at CD in June?!?  Perhaps they aren't given the opportunity to develop slowly, in tune with their growing bodies?  An interesting angle to downgrade the runners at you think it's different for the ones who debut at Del Mar?  Or all horses racing in August or earlier?

In reply toRe: msg 2

From: Wintertrian


Prince,  Sadly, Bourbon Heist ran 6th in his 9th maiden special weight on Sunday 6/5 at CD 
"Never a threat" says the chart.    HOWEVER, the horse Strobe was very very fast, and Bourbon Heist only lost by 4-1/2 so I think maybe next race he'll get his breakout maiden win.  

I have just been wondering what Wilkes is doing right and wrong with this guy.  He even cut him back in distance a few times.

$100K yearling price and was on the KY Derby Trail at one point, By Practical Joke and family of 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. 

I just wanted to follow some of the derby trail horses that didn't make the gate. Like him, Varatti, etc. 


In reply toRe: msg 3

From: Wintertrian


Looked in on him (Bourbon Heist) again this week.  Ran 3rd in an allowance at Ellis.  

11 races, still has not broken maiden.  :)     

But runs ITM most of the time.  But still.....$100K as a yearling, only $140,032 career earnings since 6/2021 when he first set foot on the track. 

You gotta think Wilkes is wondering why this horse can't win a race.   It's actually got me scratching my head too  LOL


From: pianot


Guess I need to pull past performances but he gelded so no breeding.  Maybe a 40k group but as I said. Gotta look at some stuff. Looks like a wonderful horse in the right spots. Can't run maiden special for ever.

In reply toRe: msg 5

From: Wintertrian


pianot said...

Looks like a wonderful horse in the right spots. Can't run maiden special for ever.

I know, right?   If you have any insights let me know.  He's become a curiousity for me  


From: DogsUpWired


Some maiden campaigns run their horse to 'get ready' . SAY: With MSW NY bred purses at $60 - $80K.  Two 2nds + a third is about $40K.  Move to open company 2nd = $16K.  Now $56K.

Back to NY Breds a 2nd + win. 16 + 30K.

$102,000 . Maybe 8 to 10 races.

Drop into claiming and claimed $40K. A win $30K.  $172K.  A minimal owner would be ecstatic.

As to those horses running way past the number of times out. Unfortunately they are expenses writes offs.

For info only....

As a rule, the I.R.S. will accept write-offs against a thoroughbred ownership business as long as it is run in a business-like manner, with properly kept records, and is clearly being conducted with the intent of making a profit.


From: Wintertrian


DogsUpWired said...

Drop into claiming and claimed $40K. A win $30K.  $172K.  A minimal owner would be ecstatic.

No offense but this horse was high on a list  to run in the TC races, he was on the list of nominees and had actual standings on the Road to the KY Derby for 2022.  (ended up bypassing the KY Derby). 

If you recognized the name, you'd know we are not talking a horse meant to be a "claimer" by "some small minimal owner" slated to spend his life runninng in open company for $16K purses. 

He ran 4th in $300,000 G3 Iroquois Stakes (after his first 3 maiden races) along with Major General, Stellar Tap, Gun Town, Strike Hard. He was well-meant at some point. 
A whiskey company/distillery in KY had even made a whiskey named after this horse, with his photo on the front, and they only do that for what they call "promising young thoroughbred horses". 

That is WHY I was following him----ine of the road to the derby horses that I am trying to figure out what happened to ---- but probably just couldn't make the cut and was gelded or didn't turn out like they thought he would.  Dam is same family of 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can.

Just wanted to be clear why I'm curious about him.  He was a name in 2021 and 2022 slated as as possibly ky derby horse and like many others on that trajectory, I often like to see where things went wrong.  :)  and I guess also because I kinda liked Practical Joke. 

I will just continue to cheer him on to win ........something now.  :)      


From: smartyslew


Are you keeping track of the trainers to look for there patterns ?

Remember back when they had the biggest crops ever and those 2 trainers that had more horses

disappearing then anyone. Curious if they are trainers  of any of  the horses you are following.


From: DogsUpWired



Any curiosities or conundrums you may have ...It's all about the $.

Including booked losses *taxes due to expenses vs purse income generation.