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I was right about predicting a very fast pace
I was wrong about no long shot winning the race.....I had it down to only 4 possible winners, 3 of which came in the top 5. So I was very critical of myself after the race. If I was right about an extremely fast pace, wouldn't it have made sense to allow for the possibility for a shot out of nowhere winning?????
I would not call a horse that was put up as a MCL30k in its second race as a homebred. That is giving up and selling. If that is the case they are all homebreds. That has to be one of the biggest blunders ever. Won by 17 lengths, then went on to win the KD, 2 for 2 at CD.
I was wrong about everything about the pace except that Creative Causeway was not going to be the one pressing with Lepareaux up.
I was wrong about the Giants Causeway sireline over a Candy Ride bms as I downgraded both those pedigrees largely on that. But that one is not a big as an issue as the pace. One was back in 15th much of the race.
Right after looking at the Spiral, I mentioned it was a real good race, picked the wrong one from it who had not ran well on dirt but trained ok on it. I used all the Sprial horses in bottom of my tri and super, none on top I usually put in the last one in on bottom of exotics as those are ones most likely too slow to get a lot of points but clunk up, I did not want to have to put in ER, and was wanting Rich Strike instead from the little digging I did, but never imagined him winning.
Was totally wrong about the pace and who might be pushing it. Should have looked abit more closely at the winner and how much he likes CD.
I was right that we might see a very surprising result this year. I was wrong that it might be Barber Road.
I retrospect, my gut was telling me to bet on the S types. There were only five of them.
I learned things can change really fast fast from September to May (or every 5 or 6 months) for thoroughbreds. The breed has changed dramatically in the past 20 years or so, so must the handicapping - although there are still some old angles that have given good runs if not winners and some new angles appearing consistently. Now that ALL post positions are fair, the only worry is about pace and race shape, IMHO. I will discard my automatic post disqualifications of 1, 2, 19, and 20. AND that a good horse does not need Lasix, so now I will probably use that to cut down the field next time.
Walt, where are you, buddy? Pace was always the first thing that sprouted from you for any race. I would have loved to hear your take on this year's Derby. Wherever you are, hope all is well. Take care, buddy.
I was right about 2 horses shortlisted from six Epicenter and Simplification, Was right about upset happening hence not at all considered Zandon as was sure will not win. Wrong about Rich strike winning ,not had imagined such a long shot at all 80 to1 .Connections were lucky enough to get the last minute entry in the field and also had faith in their ability. Was wrong in that not at all considered even evaluating Rich Stike pedigreestar analysis , May be Lorenzos Butterfly effect ( Chaos Theory) happened. Was given Number 21 but was installed in Number 20. One subtraction and one addition made the entire field change.
It was the two unknown, the two foreign horses from the UAE Derby that triggered the pace. Horses such as Messier and Zozos got sucked in it. The fractions of 21:78, 45:36 and 1:10.34, cooked everything within four lengths of the lead. In the next four months, it will be real interesting to see which horse turnout to be the best from this bunch.
I got the pace wrong.I was thinking 46 and 2.I was right in my assumption that Zandon would have problems from the gate but he proved to be a much better horse than I thought he was.Obviously wrong about Rich Strike;had him 6-8 at best.Right about Epicenter and Simplification.
Wrong: Didn't see the need to construct Tri tickets/ multiples to include ALL runners..in one Tri slot...based on PPs. A BEAT me horse beat me