This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I learned things can change really fast fast from September to May (or every 5 or 6 months) for thoroughbreds. The breed has changed dramatically in the past 20 years or so, so must the handicapping - although there are still some old angles that have given good runs if not winners and some new angles appearing consistently. Now that ALL post positions are fair, the only worry is about pace and race shape, IMHO. I will discard my automatic post disqualifications of 1, 2, 19, and 20. AND that a good horse does not need Lasix, so now I will probably use that to cut down the field next time.
Walt, where are you, buddy? Pace was always the first thing that sprouted from you for any race. I would have loved to hear your take on this year's Derby. Wherever you are, hope all is well. Take care, buddy.
I was right about 2 horses shortlisted from six Epicenter and Simplification, Was right about upset happening hence not at all considered Zandon as was sure will not win. Wrong about Rich strike winning ,not had imagined such a long shot at all 80 to1 .Connections were lucky enough to get the last minute entry in the field and also had faith in their ability. Was wrong in that not at all considered even evaluating Rich Stike pedigreestar analysis , May be Lorenzos Butterfly effect ( Chaos Theory) happened. Was given Number 21 but was installed in Number 20. One subtraction and one addition made the entire field change.
It was the two unknown, the two foreign horses from the UAE Derby that triggered the pace. Horses such as Messier and Zozos got sucked in it. The fractions of 21:78, 45:36 and 1:10.34, cooked everything within four lengths of the lead. In the next four months, it will be real interesting to see which horse turnout to be the best from this bunch.
I got the pace wrong.I was thinking 46 and 2.I was right in my assumption that Zandon would have problems from the gate but he proved to be a much better horse than I thought he was.Obviously wrong about Rich Strike;had him 6-8 at best.Right about Epicenter and Simplification.
Wrong: Didn't see the need to construct Tri tickets/ multiples to include ALL runners..in one Tri slot...based on PPs. A BEAT me horse beat me
I was right about a Lasix free Horse Winning the Derby !
I was wrong Betting on Epicenter to win the Derby also Lasix free ,this among the things I got wrong
I'm thinking Epicenter has a slight edge for 3yoOTY
No moral victory here. The aim is to win and I failed. Hopefully, we get to do it again next year.
Based on Epicenter's achievements thus far he is in the driver's seat for 3yr. old of the year. But that's not what I am talking about. From here on out, there are plenty of graded stakes races for 3yr. old in the next 4 months. A few of these horses that did not finish ITM in the derby will make great improvements in the upcoming months and will be at the forefront. Not to mention the horses that sat out the derby because of injury or inexperience. Who is going to be the next Life Is Good or Olympiad from this bunch?