Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 516
    MEMBERS
  • 29827
    MESSAGES
  • 1
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Preakness Bets   General Discussions

Started May-11 by pianot; 10193 views.
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

May-12

'In the last 25 years, horses that won the derby at over 30-1 that went on to win the Preakness:

Charismatic.  That’s it."

Chris Antley RIP was returning to riding following personal issues and the great Wayne D Lukas sought fit to give him his chance and a leg up ..So did I as key Delta.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-12

A guy I used to work with had $200 on him to win.  

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

May-12

Yeah I had that Tri and didn't get by wheel .was key.

Gerh

From: Gerh

May-12

Political Stuff?Was he seen wearing a MAGA hat?

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-13

I wonder if Jack Christopher or Pappacap will go?  Here's Jack C's races:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5cvHTf2KNg

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-13

As rare as it is, I'm going to disagree with you on this one, Raes.....The morning line should be made as a predictor of the betting public.  I would have bet a rather princely sum :) that RS would not have been the favorite of the betting public.  Whether he should or not is a different issue.  Yes, he won the Derby impressively, but that's a different event, and that alone does not make one a deserving favorite.  His body of work prior was not as impressive as several others, and though they can improve greatly as 3 year olds, Epicenter is also improving and has a style more suited to the Preakness than RS.

Even though he is not running, I doubt that you would take RS over Epi at even odds for finishing better.  I know I certainly wouldn't.  I wouldn't take him over Early Voting either, and probably not the filly.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-14

I hear you, but the way he won the Derby, I would take him in the Preakness. The horse can only win in the races he was entered in. He ran on poly track as he improved, and didn’t get a chance to show what he could do on the dirt until he got on that surface. I don’t think his race was a fluke, or due to the pace. He is as clearly the best horse on that day, and I think he would be just as effective at 9.5f. I guess we will have to wait until the Belmont to see if he’s legit. Then again, that’s a very different race.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-14

You may be right....every time I watch the replay, I get more and more impressed.  But in his previous 7 races, he only won once.  His other 2 dirt races he lost by a combined 17 lengths.  If this horse was trained by Baffert, we would definitely suspect drugs!

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

If one looks at his previous races, one thing becomes very clear—he needs a decent pace to run into.  He got it in the derby, but I’m not so sure he would have gotten it in the Preakness.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-14

I was also impressed with Rich Strike's FuPeg impersonation. Looking back on his career, his previous win was at CD, a mile race that he won by 17 lengths. It happened to be the 30k claiming race much talked about. His next dirt start was marred by significant trouble in the race. He then stepped up to a stakes race at the FG, in which he ran poorly. That was still in his juvy year.

His races as a sophomore were all on polytrack, which may have masked his improvement. His Equibase numbers progressed with every race, where he may have competed against horses, perhaps better suited for that surface. The Smart Strike in his pedigree may have led folk to believe that he is a turf or polytrack horse, where in reality, he might have been a dirt horse all along, compromised by the Turfway surface. It wasn't until he got back on dirt, at Churchill, that we were able to see the full degree of improvement the horse enjoyed from two to three.

Of course, all this is hindsight on my part. We won't know until he gets back on the track, whether the race was a fluke or the horse just loves CD, However, there was every reason to believe that the horse had another forward move in him, which if true, would make him competitive in the race. We also know that the 10f distance would be too much for many in the field. As it turns out, he was not one of them, too say the least. In my opinion he was much the best, and his win was not just a function of the pace. Epicenter was eighth after the ridiculous half, so I don't think he was compromised by the pace, as he was more than a full second off of it. He got first run run in the stretch, and was easily run down despite a fairly uncompromised trip. RS may not have looked like a major contender going in, but he sure looked like the best horse coming out, at least relative to races at that distance. The Preakness, while shorter, is farther than any other horse in the field save one, has ever won, and that one he beat on the square on the first Saturday in May!.

TOP