This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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The Derby winner took a long time to move up to the exercise pony for /to meet company. And trainer said that Rich Strike would likely go back to his stall and sleep. That he's tired.
No shadow roll on pony as used to running in AM when the sun is low in the East in Elmont,NY.
Yeah think I saw that in the seabiscuit movie.
Guess they forgot to tell in this Bloodhorse aricle:
It says three were added in 2016, including Galileo, with another six in Oct-2019 ...
The Shadow Roll means the Pony is live for a frisky horse and he has been wearing one
DogsUpWired said...No shadow roll on pony as used to running in AM when the sun is low in the East in Elmont,NY.
Every photo I've seeen of the pony "Stormy" show a shadow roll. Including one an owner at Belmont sent me.
PISTOL9 said...Anyone who is looking at dosage today does not understand it. The most recent prolific sire, Tapit, born in 2001, is not rated. They stopped doing the ratings so no new ones will be identified. Until that happens, it is a waste of time to look at it or consider it
Only the anti dosage people think that. And I know you are not anti dosage. And you are right that many will not understnad it. But all theories of matings are hypothetical anyway. If you follow True Nicks or even ANZ Bloodstock (who is still doing the dosage for horses in aust, asia etc.) and steve miller is doing the N. A. ones. The point of any breeding system will always be hypothetical, UNTIL horses prove they run to their breeding on the track. (and they often do)
Conversely, I imagine that is why anyone who even uses even uses the word "dosage" or "cmp" would be someone who knows their way around a pedigree chart, and already understands the numbers in the sire dosage (as well as the mare cmp/profile, put forth by Bill Lathrop in Modern Conduit Mares.) They know how they are what they are.
But, really, anyone who doesn't bother to try to figure out any system by asking "What happened to make that figure what it is?", whether that be BSF, dosage, Thoro-graph, etc. is someone who isn't going to look past being spoon-fed a bunch of numbers. Don't you think? We all know people who use BSF as pretty much their sole capping method and those who will assume tapits alway win long races or those who only look at PPs and therefore only see the same data everyone else sees (trainer stats, etc.) . ANY system is going to be followed incorrectly by low effort types, who never really beat this game anyway, because you have to use a LOT of factors,
As Randy Moss pointed out, sometimes it's a case of "Beyer Beware" and since OP is my home track, I remember following this saga:
But Moss didn't toss the beyer system out on it's ear, ---- calling it a waste of time ---- it's not for those who are willing to do DD (due dilligence)
Most laughable was Andy Beyer gave Blame/Zenyatta a 111 in the Classic; in his world, you realize that makes them sort of like chopped liver compared to his figures for other Classic winners before them. Beyer was very intent on putting Zenyatta's talents into what he called "proper perspective. " ROTFL Yet, many of us know that Zenyatta wasn't chopped liver, and either was Blame, and will laugh at him forever about this.
This is why many people compute their own speed figures, and many people who know their way around a pedigree chart can fill in the blanks when it comes to horses who are not yet chefs, for instance
All the DRF people laughed at mariana hawn's idea about large heart / x factor. I read a now deleted or gone perspective from one of her "coworkers" there basically calling her a nutcase in so many words. Some groups of people are sort of threatened by new theories that might throw them off the top of the pyramid or something.
Thanks for the post positons. I don't happen to think post positions are as important in the Belmont as in the KY Derby or Preakness. Race is plenty long enough to establish positions. Plus if any stamina horse can run past horses going backwards at the end, Post will make no difference.
And it's almost always more about horses backing up than the winner actually sprinting by them (unless you're looking at Zenyatta, who did exactly that.)
Something so few noted because she had that amazing stamina engine, could grind along, but unlike most grinders, she had INCREDIBLE sprinting speed, which she was just able to turn on when given the signal to do so, and she sprinted past everyone. Few horses in history have this. Very few. Put her anywhere, 12 lengths behind; she could stand in the gate and break last.......didn't matter. It was the sprinting speed and so apparent in her very early maiden races, zoom zoom.
As a handicapper, she taught me to not just look at distance races for determing distance races, I watch their early races and see how they ran short races, watch them, look at the splits, and turn of foot.
In my Opinion Race is between Nest and Creative Minister and my First Choice is Nest and should win this race. Derby Winner Rich Strike will be in the First 4 for sure. I agree Dosage has changed considerably in the last few years and Dosage Profile Number given by the equineline etc are not true as no new CDR are designated but American Breeding has changed is seen in the numbers.
That is a good observation how much the American Breeding has changed looking at those numbers is a tel.
Good luck with Nest !