More riders have lost the race than horses," Lukas said. This is from USA Today( awhile ago). "It's a difficult racetrack to ride. Even if you ride it daily, there's something about it. The adrenalin gets flowing, and they make some mistakes and most of them misjudge the pace.

You had me confused when you picked one horse off the Vets List and didn't mention the other 2.

If We the People or Creative Minister was in the race without the other, I would be tempted to go with either to win this race on the lead, setting moderate fractions the whole way. However, I think they might complicate things for each other, bringing other horses into play. Maybe they play cat and mouse, or maybe one tries to get to the front, assuring a faster than expected pace. Who could benefit? Obviously, the first horse to look at would be the Derby winner. However, he hasn’t shown me that he likes any other dirt track other than CD. I can’t be sure he’ll be the same horse. I’m tempted at this point to go with Mo Donegal, but his odds won’t be favorable. I think I’ll just pass on this race!

When I first looked at this group I thought maybe we would have a Ta Tara  type race looking at

We The People  good final Q geared down.  Then I saw the 118 pounds  he was carrying, did that weight help or not

then Beyer  gave him a 103 in a 9f race carrying 118, and Rich Strike a 101 Pacjking 126 at 10 f. gives a lot of thought

and  Nest a 101 at 121 9f. lots to ponder imo.

I think I am the only person who must not like Mo Donegal.   If I had to pick between the two TAPs, I'd lean toward Nest mostly due to running style and ped.  It is difficult to pick a closer in the Belmont, Although I did get burned by Creator.

True its one I haven't added (Nest) but been thinking about it. I'm still on Barber Road at the moment.

This excerpt of a discussion with Reed makes sense to me.

We the People, the morning-line favorite, is expected to establish the pace Saturday. When he won the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3) by 10 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park last month, the colt trained by Rodolphe Brisset went out in 23.66, 47.24 and 1:11.25.

Reed said that if Rich Strike repeats his own pace from Churchill Downs, he would be much closer to We the People than many horseplayers might expect.

“His time in the Derby, I believe, was 23 and change and 47 and change,” Reed said. Indeed, Trakus said Rich Strike’s early fractions were 23.08 and 47.32 seconds. “That’s going to put him where we’d want him here, if he does that."

But that's the thing, does everyone believe CD and Belmont are similar surfaces? Not sure I can buy that but good post. See what the trainer's thinking.

They are not similar.  The percentage of sand at Belmont is higher and of course, the configuration is much different.  Sweeping turns.  You know the deal as far as the track goes, Pianot.  Reed has said elsewhere that RS likes the Belmont main.

As I said the other day, it's interesting.   I believe the race needs to be galloped evenly in order to have a chance.  We'll see soon enough.

I may pass on the race too Raes.  But as you know, I have zero faith in We the People (the horse) so he wouldn't even be on my trifecta.  Stamina looks suspicious there to me.   Everyone already knows 2 horses I wrote little novels about.......1 is a longshot BOMB and the other I've liked since before he ever started racing just because I liked his workouts and could see his conformation.    I predicted his trajectory to the Preakness/Belmont (and now can't believe it came true!  cuz it was more of a muze )   So you know which one I would pick for you.   :)   I will add 2-3 more to my exotic, not sure who yet.   

But Also if you like both mo don and nest, why would you have to decide between them?  In that BEL that Creator won, didn't pletcher have 1-3 horses, one ran 2nd, one ran 4th------it could have been 1st and 3rd, you just don't know.  There is no reason not to use 2 Pletchers is there?  Heck how to know they won't even run 1-2? 


WHat I find interesting about Pletcher, I have PPs going back to 2009....his %  stats on graded stakes, dirt routes, etc.  are pretty much exactly the same as they are in 2022.   I give the man his just due, he's consistent and puts out consistent results over 2 decades.  I found that amazing.