I think I am the only person who must not like Mo Donegal.   If I had to pick between the two TAPs, I'd lean toward Nest mostly due to running style and ped.  It is difficult to pick a closer in the Belmont, Although I did get burned by Creator.

True its one I haven't added (Nest) but been thinking about it. I'm still on Barber Road at the moment.

This excerpt of a discussion with Reed makes sense to me.

We the People, the morning-line favorite, is expected to establish the pace Saturday. When he won the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3) by 10 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park last month, the colt trained by Rodolphe Brisset went out in 23.66, 47.24 and 1:11.25.

Reed said that if Rich Strike repeats his own pace from Churchill Downs, he would be much closer to We the People than many horseplayers might expect.

“His time in the Derby, I believe, was 23 and change and 47 and change,” Reed said. Indeed, Trakus said Rich Strike’s early fractions were 23.08 and 47.32 seconds. “That’s going to put him where we’d want him here, if he does that."

But that's the thing, does everyone believe CD and Belmont are similar surfaces? Not sure I can buy that but good post. See what the trainer's thinking.

They are not similar.  The percentage of sand at Belmont is higher and of course, the configuration is much different.  Sweeping turns.  You know the deal as far as the track goes, Pianot.  Reed has said elsewhere that RS likes the Belmont main.

As I said the other day, it's interesting.   I believe the race needs to be galloped evenly in order to have a chance.  We'll see soon enough.

I may pass on the race too Raes.  But as you know, I have zero faith in We the People (the horse) so he wouldn't even be on my trifecta.  Stamina looks suspicious there to me.   Everyone already knows 2 horses I wrote little novels about.......1 is a longshot BOMB and the other I've liked since before he ever started racing just because I liked his workouts and could see his conformation.    I predicted his trajectory to the Preakness/Belmont (and now can't believe it came true!  cuz it was more of a muze )   So you know which one I would pick for you.   :)   I will add 2-3 more to my exotic, not sure who yet.   

But Also if you like both mo don and nest, why would you have to decide between them?  In that BEL that Creator won, didn't pletcher have 1-3 horses, one ran 2nd, one ran 4th------it could have been 1st and 3rd, you just don't know.  There is no reason not to use 2 Pletchers is there?  Heck how to know they won't even run 1-2? 


WHat I find interesting about Pletcher, I have PPs going back to 2009....his %  stats on graded stakes, dirt routes, etc.  are pretty much exactly the same as they are in 2022.   I give the man his just due, he's consistent and puts out consistent results over 2 decades.  I found that amazing. 

So true and I just see alot of struggling horses trying to get to the finish line. I'm probably wrong.

? Didnt learn factor by examining Vet list. Read in article as to colt on Kentucky vet list.

Did you view a list of Belmont vet list that had the 2 you mentioned?

Actually was more interested in sharing delicious 2 Day Betting Menu with amigos de le equis.

SameSteve G said...

Reed said that if Rich Strike repeats his own pace from Churchill Downs, he would be much closer to We the People than many horseplayers might expect.

going from a 20 horse field to an 8 horse field, I doubt even a deep closer would be real far behind in the this Belmont, with so few horses?    Looks like it could turn out pretty boring, actually!   Some say track matters, some says  it's a jockey's race.  In my heart of hearts, this will always be a race based on pedigree...every year there are just too many you watch going backwards in the stretch.   Doesn't matter what their PPs say.   That extra bit is already farther than they can "comfortably run" to begin with----1-1/4 is too far for most of 'em.   These are "babies".....only 1/2 year into their 2nd year of racing and being asked to do 1-1/2 miles on a deep sandy track? 

Unless WTP pulls a War Emblem and stumbles badly out of the gate...