I may pass on the race too Raes.  But as you know, I have zero faith in We the People (the horse) so he wouldn't even be on my trifecta.  Stamina looks suspicious there to me.   Everyone already knows 2 horses I wrote little novels about.......1 is a longshot BOMB and the other I've liked since before he ever started racing just because I liked his workouts and could see his conformation.    I predicted his trajectory to the Preakness/Belmont (and now can't believe it came true!  cuz it was more of a muze )   So you know which one I would pick for you.   :)   I will add 2-3 more to my exotic, not sure who yet.   

But Also if you like both mo don and nest, why would you have to decide between them?  In that BEL that Creator won, didn't pletcher have 1-3 horses, one ran 2nd, one ran 4th------it could have been 1st and 3rd, you just don't know.  There is no reason not to use 2 Pletchers is there?  Heck how to know they won't even run 1-2? 


WHat I find interesting about Pletcher, I have PPs going back to 2009....his %  stats on graded stakes, dirt routes, etc.  are pretty much exactly the same as they are in 2022.   I give the man his just due, he's consistent and puts out consistent results over 2 decades.  I found that amazing. 

So true and I just see alot of struggling horses trying to get to the finish line. I'm probably wrong.

? Didnt learn factor by examining Vet list. Read in article as to colt on Kentucky vet list.

Did you view a list of Belmont vet list that had the 2 you mentioned?

Actually was more interested in sharing delicious 2 Day Betting Menu with amigos de le equis.

SameSteve G said...

Reed said that if Rich Strike repeats his own pace from Churchill Downs, he would be much closer to We the People than many horseplayers might expect.

going from a 20 horse field to an 8 horse field, I doubt even a deep closer would be real far behind in the this Belmont, with so few horses?    Looks like it could turn out pretty boring, actually!   Some say track matters, some says  it's a jockey's race.  In my heart of hearts, this will always be a race based on pedigree...every year there are just too many you watch going backwards in the stretch.   Doesn't matter what their PPs say.   That extra bit is already farther than they can "comfortably run" to begin with----1-1/4 is too far for most of 'em.   These are "babies".....only 1/2 year into their 2nd year of racing and being asked to do 1-1/2 miles on a deep sandy track? 

Unless WTP pulls a War Emblem and stumbles badly out of the gate...

b.o.r.i.n.g.    LOL

I don't like him here and a serious underlay to boot.

I know you're hoping he throws another huge number but I cant, hope it works.

SameSteve G said...

I believe the race needs to be galloped evenly in order to have a chance.

Agree

Contrary to all appearances, Rich actually ran very evenly in the derby.  He did display some agility but most of the reason it looked like he was flying at the end was because most of the rest were backing up.  That same pace should indeed keep him closer in the Belmont, which you need, but will the others back up this time?  I’m not sure.

When I first started handicapping this race it looked to me like it was between We the Peeps and Nest.  Then Barber Road started looking good.  Then Mo and Rich.  So I think I’m going with Skippy lol, mostly due to the rider change to Manny.  He knows how to win this race and there are some things in Skippy’s pedigree I like for this one.