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From: Wintertrian
6/9/22
SameSteve G said...
Reed said that if Rich Strike repeats his own pace from Churchill Downs, he would be much closer to We the People than many horseplayers might expect.
going from a 20 horse field to an 8 horse field, I doubt even a deep closer would be real far behind in the this Belmont, with so few horses? Looks like it could turn out pretty boring, actually! Some say track matters, some says it's a jockey's race. In my heart of hearts, this will always be a race based on pedigree...every year there are just too many you watch going backwards in the stretch. Doesn't matter what their PPs say. That extra bit is already farther than they can "comfortably run" to begin with----1-1/4 is too far for most of 'em. These are "babies".....only 1/2 year into their 2nd year of racing and being asked to do 1-1/2 miles on a deep sandy track?
- Edited June 9, 2022 5:46 pm by Wintertrian
From: Wintertrian
6/9/22
SameSteve G said...
I believe the race needs to be galloped evenly in order to have a chance.
Agree
From: Oldbettowin
6/9/22
Contrary to all appearances, Rich actually ran very evenly in the derby. He did display some agility but most of the reason it looked like he was flying at the end was because most of the rest were backing up. That same pace should indeed keep him closer in the Belmont, which you need, but will the others back up this time? I’m not sure.
When I first started handicapping this race it looked to me like it was between We the Peeps and Nest. Then Barber Road started looking good. Then Mo and Rich. So I think I’m going with Skippy lol, mostly due to the rider change to Manny. He knows how to win this race and there are some things in Skippy’s pedigree I like for this one.
- Edited June 9, 2022 6:34 pm by Oldbettowin
From: SameSteve G
6/9/22
Here's a really good example of an evenly run Belmont Stakes.
:24.77 - :24.58 - :24.58 - :24.34 - :24.32 - 2:26.25
American Pharoah's splits, wire to wire. Now, it doesn't have to be wire to wire, obviously, if it's run evenly.
That's irrespective of whether or not he had some special marinara sauce that the testing could not pick up.
From: SameSteve G
6/9/22
Oldbettowin said:Contrary to all appearances, Rich actually ran very evenly in the derby
Hey bet, that's what I've been trying to say. LOL