SameSteve G said...

I believe the race needs to be galloped evenly in order to have a chance.

Agree

Contrary to all appearances, Rich actually ran very evenly in the derby.  He did display some agility but most of the reason it looked like he was flying at the end was because most of the rest were backing up.  That same pace should indeed keep him closer in the Belmont, which you need, but will the others back up this time?  I’m not sure.

When I first started handicapping this race it looked to me like it was between We the Peeps and Nest.  Then Barber Road started looking good.  Then Mo and Rich.  So I think I’m going with Skippy lol, mostly due to the rider change to Manny.  He knows how to win this race and there are some things in Skippy’s pedigree I like for this one.

Here's a really good example of an evenly run Belmont Stakes.  

:24.77 - :24.58 - :24.58 - :24.34 - :24.32 - 2:26.25

American Pharoah's splits, wire to wire.  Now, it doesn't have to be wire to wire, obviously, if it's run evenly.

That's irrespective of whether or not he had some special marinara sauce that the testing could not pick up.   

Oldbettowin said:

Contrary to all appearances, Rich actually ran very evenly in the derby

Hey bet, that's what I've been trying to say.  LOL

I know :p

If someone put a gun to my head, Creative Minister would be my pick. I like WTP a little more than you do, and I think Mo Donegal has a lot of foundation. Strangely enough, I wouldn’t mind if Rich Strike were to win. Obviously, I’m all over the place!

Agreed. Loved CD, just not sure he can duplicate else where.

Not only are the two tracks configured differently, the surfaces are very different.  Churchill Downs is HARD and shallow; there's almost no "cushion".  Belmont is deep. 

I remember during the 2003 Belmont when it poured rain for Funny Cide vs Empire Maker, it was a mess.  You sunk into the mud 6 inches or more with every step.  Churchill never gets that way.  It might get wet on top for an inch or two but you'll hit that rock hard bottom easily.

To beat Secretariat's 1 1/2 mile track record you'd need a fast enough horse and a track compacted down hard like Churchill Downs to help him out.  

+All

Beyond the Derby winner's surface switch montra Dogs has barked at the moon

...Derby winning jockey has 1 prep mount on Friday and Saturday. 

All jocks however have to know exactly where they are on the track and in the pace. 

There is a home team jock/track/distance advantage..

One mistake and the Derb winner entry becomes...

A Lost Easter Egg. (d)