This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Early betting looking like the Preakness, no real big bombs. WTP 8-1 Nest 4-1 Mo 2-1. First two I have planned to use to be ITM 16-1 is highest odds, I'll put some bets down but not as much if odds are spread out like the Preakness which caused me to back off there as well.
No interest in We the People anywhere near the 2-1 ML, so I guess I'm going back to Skippy for the win with the hope that Franco puts him no worse than third early and he grinds his way to the wire first.
If WtP stays up mid single digits(8-1 last night), I will include him on more tickets. Kinda like EV at Pimlico who floated up. Race pace seems to always go opposite what I think. KD way faster PRK way slower. So this one will probably be way too fast if it goes against my expectations
I really liked Skippy in his last two, but not here. Going into the first turn at Pimlico, the jock had option to go inside or real wide and choose real wide which I thought was a mistake. It does not matter here as none will be too wide. He does have a lot of 10-a but I still think he is weaker overall for 12f. Both he and MoD have quite a bit of ff3 which I always like, but am going against here. 7&3 are my top pedigrees but both those have some weaknesses as well.
Looks like I am going against most of the top chalk but tough not to have chalky horses in the races with small fields P5
Where are you getting the live odds?
Mo Donegal has also been lasix-free for all of his races, according to the PPs.
Barber Road, Rich Strike and Nest as well. A nice lasix-free ex and tri box.
My write ups on Creative Minister and Golden Glider stand and hope they help somebody rather than hinder.
I also like Nest and Rich Strike (not really sure about Rich Strike yet. My main concern is Sonny's ability to ride at Belmont against NY riders who know that track well, no reflection on horse himself)
(5,3,7,4) ex or tri box
GG is based on my penchant for canadian blacktype. Just can't discount Ghostzapper and Baby Zip (2005 Kentucky Broodmare of the Year and a Reine-de-Course), 3rd dam Passing Moon who produced Touch Gold and Canadian TC winner With Approval). Plus he's been at been at BEL the longest, is acclimated, and Casse has won this race. Seems like a good basis for a longshot bomber.
(After I watch the post parade, I may swap out Rich Strike for Mo Don or Barber Road if I see anything untoward, but not sure either has the correct breeding for this)
WeThePeople will be absent from my exactas and trifectas. No surprise there.
Best other longshots of the Day:
R8: I really like Change of Control. Other longshots: Gear Jockey, Filo Di Ariana
R10: Tokyo Gold 30-1
Hamburger helpers for Tri/Super
Race 10 #1 L'imp
Race 8 #8 Scuttlebuzz
The horse math...Prat non winner Friday; 2 thirds. Should win 3 races today.
I noticed that, too, two. Thanks, though. I can't get behind Mo at what seems like a fairly severe underlay. On the other hand, he could be sitting on a move forward, which puts him in the mix for exotics players.
Good luck if you decide to take a shot on the race.