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American Derby and Dwyer Stakes 7/2/2022   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by Wintertrian; 977 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

American Derby
Churchill Downs STAKES  Race 7

Purse $200,000. (Includes $25,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Three Years Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles.

P# PP Horse  Virtual
Stable
A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1
1
Fowler Blue (CA)
3/G
  S Leon
118
D F O'Neill 15/1
2
...[Message truncated]
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In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

Am interested to see how longshot Kitodan does in this race.   He can run on synth, turf, and dirt but not sure about dirt at "this" distance.   I do love omni-surface horses, though, like Einstein, they are often just a cut above. 

Kuchar (uncle mo)  if he remains in condition is a pretty formidable colt, IMHO.  Doesn't give in easily.  Watched him a few times at Oaklawn.   Also like Red Run (Gun Runner) but doesnt seem to be performing up to his breeding.    McLauren Vale and Rattle n Roll will take the $$.   Rattle n' Roll might win this.

Like the chalk, Charge It, in the Dwyer. 

Got a stable notification on Graham Motion's Zatip for July 1, thought he was a total shoe -in for the win at 7F, (Laurel R8) noting his after-burners in the stretch in his previous 7F maiden at Keenland.  Unfortunately I missed the race and missed playing him.  .  

pianot

From: pianot

Jul-2

I might try Double Clutch in the American. Turf to dirt angle.

Just scratched. Oh well.

  • Edited July 2, 2022 11:39 am  by  pianot
In reply toRe: msg 4
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jul-2

I like Charge It, but considering the fact that the second place finisher probably covered the mile in close to 1:40, I will temper my excitement over his Dwyer performance. He was really good, but 23 lengths? Who was in that race?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-2

Wow, Look at the Rockin Chair Jockeys in this race and the name of the Horses, If I remember, later to see 

how this field does in future races if they ever race again. At 7 Furlongs his lead was 10 lengths , It doesn't seem right.

# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 3/4 Str Fin Jockey Odds
1 Charge It 3 C 118 1 4 21 22 13 110 123 Velazquez John R. *0.60
5 Runninsonofagun 3 G 119 5 5 55 41 31 1/2 2hd 22 1/4 Carmouche Kendrick 15.80
3 Fluid Situation 3 C 118 3 2 11/2 11/2 21/2 32 1/2 3no Castellano Javier 8.80
4 Unbridled Bomber 3 C f 118 4 6 6  6  53 1/2 512 41 1/4 Ortiz Jose L. 17.20
2 No Sabe Nada 3 G 122 2 3 41/2 31/2 48 44 1/2 530 1/4 Alvarado, Jr. Roberto 42.25
6 Nabokov 3 C 118 6 1
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-3

Rewatched it, JV misjudged the finish line standing up Early LOL.

enjoyed the splits and the action and Rhythm of Charge It, Nice work out.

The others in the Race didn't deserve their p-urse. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jul-3

Charge It got a 111 Beyer and 133 Timeform fig for the race.Pretty lofty numbers

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jul-3

The last two times Kitodan ran I used him in exactas and didn’t have the second place horse.Yesterday I played him WPS and he finished 4th

In reply toRe: msg 8
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-3

That's a Wow looking at the race as a workout from many, A hand ride with smooth Action,

JV stood up early before the wire, 2nd place Horse Stumbled at the Start, Charge It wins by 23 lengths,

I wonder what number the Race Guru's gave the 2nd place Horse.

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