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American Derby and Dwyer Stakes 7/2/2022   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by Wintertrian; 981 views.
In reply toRe: msg 4
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jul-2

I like Charge It, but considering the fact that the second place finisher probably covered the mile in close to 1:40, I will temper my excitement over his Dwyer performance. He was really good, but 23 lengths? Who was in that race?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-2

Wow, Look at the Rockin Chair Jockeys in this race and the name of the Horses, If I remember, later to see 

how this field does in future races if they ever race again. At 7 Furlongs his lead was 10 lengths , It doesn't seem right.

# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 3/4 Str Fin Jockey Odds
1 Charge It 3 C 118 1 4 21 22 13 110 123 Velazquez John R. *0.60
5 Runninsonofagun 3 G 119 5 5 55 41 31 1/2 2hd 22 1/4 Carmouche Kendrick 15.80
3 Fluid Situation 3 C 118 3 2 11/2 11/2 21/2 32 1/2 3no Castellano Javier 8.80
4 Unbridled Bomber 3 C f 118 4 6 6  6  53 1/2 512 41 1/4 Ortiz Jose L. 17.20
2 No Sabe Nada 3 G 122 2 3 41/2 31/2 48 44 1/2 530 1/4 Alvarado, Jr. Roberto 42.25
6 Nabokov 3 C 118 6 1
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-3

Rewatched it, JV misjudged the finish line standing up Early LOL.

enjoyed the splits and the action and Rhythm of Charge It, Nice work out.

The others in the Race didn't deserve their p-urse. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jul-3

Charge It got a 111 Beyer and 133 Timeform fig for the race.Pretty lofty numbers

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jul-3

The last two times Kitodan ran I used him in exactas and didn’t have the second place horse.Yesterday I played him WPS and he finished 4th

In reply toRe: msg 8
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-3

That's a Wow looking at the race as a workout from many, A hand ride with smooth Action,

JV stood up early before the wire, 2nd place Horse Stumbled at the Start, Charge It wins by 23 lengths,

I wonder what number the Race Guru's gave the 2nd place Horse.

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jul-3

I should have noticed this earlier... why is the American Derby suddenly a dirt race? This is one of the races Churchill "stole" from Arlington when they closed that track for good. The American Derby was the local prep for the Secretariat Stakes, so it was a turf race.  

[edited to add]

Oh, their turf course needs time to grow in the roots deeper... ouch...

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/no-turf-racing-closing-weekend-at-churchill-wise-dan-cancelled/

Roger Attfield commented on it yesterday at Woodbine, the course must have been shit Derby week:

"She's an interesting filly to train and she was unlucky this winter. Churchill was a disaster with that turf course. It's funny really because the jockey that rode her came back and said, you know, she wasn't having it with the turf course, the turf course was too loose, and then it turned out that it wasn't really ready to run."

In reply toRe: msg 2
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-3

Wintertrian said...

Am interested to see how longshot Kitodan does in this race.   He can run on synth, turf, and dirt but not sure about dirt at "this" distance.   I do love omni-surface horses, though, like Einstein, they are often just a cut above. Kuchar (uncle mo)  if he remains in condition is a pretty formidable colt, IMHO.  Doesn't give in easily.  Watched him a few times at Oaklawn.   Also like Red Run (Gun Runner) but doesnt seem to be performing up to his breeding.    McLauren Vale and Rattle n Roll will take the $$.   Rattle n' Roll might win this.

Like the chalk, Charge It, in the Dwyer. 

Diddn't play it -- but looks like I was on the money for the ex, tri and superfecta for the American Derby...those were the only horses I liked and they came in..   



And Charge It won the Dwyer.  I would not have played that race anyway, as win would have been chalk, and I had no thoughts on any of the other runners since I didn't see how any other horse could beat him in here. 
 

 

(Didn't see the final odds on McLauren-- Not really a fan of that horse, he's never done anything except win a maiden at SA and an allowance race and is a "fader" and can't get the job done, certainly not against this crowd,nor a horse like Creative Minister either..... but I assumed he would take $$ and be chalk or 2nd chalk. )  

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jul-3

Runningsonofagun got a 73 Beyer.

In reply toRe: msg 13
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-3

Thanks, how do you get that number for 2nd place so fast ?

A one turn Mile takes some of the luster projecting a 2 turn effort at a Classic distance

With JV being the Pilot at Belmont,  Equibase 117 to 78 for 2nd place . 

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