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Melbourne Cup Nov 1, Tuesday   Australian and Asian Racing

Started Oct-28 by Wintertrian; 725 views.

From: Wintertrian


Race is 3200m. (1.99 "2 miles" ).  Ground is expected to be soft and heavy.   This is an excellent race to try to make some money.  Because few favorites win this race.    Let's rock this thing!!!

Since 2013, a few favs have run ITM though, but no favorites have won since Gai Waterhouse's Fliorente in 2013.  Makybe Diva won it 3x as the favorite, but that was way back in 2003, 2004 and 2005.  In 2006, a Japanese horse (Delta Blue) beat another Japanese horse to win it.  In 2009 Shocking won it at very big odds.  And in 2010, the first French trained horse, Americain, won it.  (I ACTUALLY HAD THIS ONE!!)  

There's  been some heartbreaking scratches for this year already (Loft, who was the 2nd favorite, and leaves James McDonald, who I really LOVE, w/out a ride. Loft is gorgeous, has a white streak running all the way from forehead down to tip of nose), Makram, another Irish horse was also ruled out, and then Chris Waller's Caufield Cup winner Durston, who would have been ridden by Damien Oliver, also withdrew due to a leg problem.   

So they have a possibility of 32 horses but only 24 can run.  We have to wait for Saturday, Oct 29th, for the Lexus Archer Stakes 2500m because that is the last chance any horse has to get into the Cup.  (32 horses, we can barely get 10 for the BCC).  

Right now Deauville Legend(IRE) is the favorite.   (knocked former favorite Duais off the throne.)  Gets multiple Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy, trainer is James Ferguson. Owner is an international owner, he races in AUS but also Hong Kong.    He had a guaranteed spot along with Lunar Flare and Point Nepean (both at good odds).   

There are several Australian trained horses like top weight Gold Trip (seems to have some heat in foot they are watching but loves the soft going), Without a Fight, and 2019 Melbourne Cup winner Vow and Declare, who trailed off for a while after that, but seems to be regaining his mojo now. 

Final draw will be after the last race at Flemington on Sat. (you'll have to stay up late for that). 


I have no real thoughts yet.  Emissary, who won the Geelong stakes looks interesting to me.  He has a long body and long neck and really sticks his neck and head out forward near the finish line, which is a good thing to have talent with when you are crossing line with others close by.   Montefilia ran 4th in the Cox Plate but he was charging / driving, so I liked him.  Gai Waterhouse has Knights Order, an Irish bred by So You Think out of Lamanka Lass.  He's an elite Group 1 winner and ya'll know how much I like Gai.  There's probably 10 horses who can win this, so I will wait for the field to be set and what barriers they draw.

Winners in history:

List of entries (you'll have to delete the scratches so far yourselves)


In reply toRe: msg 1

From: Wintertrian


oh no.   

A bitterly cold and wet blast is closing in on Melbourne for Carnival week and Cup Day looks to be the worst of the lot.

In reply toRe: msg 2

From: Wintertrian


I was waiting for the results of the Lexus Archer Stakes, which was last chance anyone could get entry to the Cup, run late Sat. night  (2500m).......  and Surefire just won it.  But looks like he did not take a spot in the Cup gate.  He's quite a beast though, if you wanna see that race:

Serpentine came in 2nd, (who I was all over to run ITM for the Melbourne Cup, but really not sure now that he only gets 2.5 days rest.?   :()  I also liked Chapada........, but looks like he's not going in the Cup either, I believe he came in 4th in the Lexus Archer. 

Here is the final field:  24 horses, but I expect scratches.   So, back to the drawing board for me til Tuesday


In reply toRe: msg 3

From: Wintertrian


 WILL WAIT FOR SCRATCHES.   I have a few I do like.

For those who like to see weights:  Gold Trip is pretty hefty stallion:  (no horse has ever won in 35 years at this weight).

1 GOLD TRIP (FR) (C. Maher & David Eustace) M Zahra 57.5kg (14)

2 DUAIS (Edward Cummings) H Bowman 55.5kg (10)

3 KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE) (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott) T Clark 55.5kg (24)

4 MONTEFILIA (David Payne) J Collett 55.5kg (11)

5 NUMERIAN (IRE) (Annabel Neasham) T Berry 55.5kg (7)

6 WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE) (Simon & Ed Crisford) W Buick 55.5kg (18)

7 CAMORRA (IRE) (Ben & JD Hayes) B J Melham 55kg (17)

8 DEAUVILLE LEGEND (IRE) (James Ferguson) K McEvoy 55kg (9)   The Favorite.   No horse has won in 35 years at this age. 

9 STOCKMAN (NZ) (Joseph Pride) S Clipperton 54kg (2)

10 VOW AND DECLARE (Danny O’Brien) B Shinn 54kg (4)

11 YOUNG WERTHER (NZ) (Danny O’Brien) D M Lane 54kg (21)

12 HOO YA MAL (GB) (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott) C Williams 53.5kg (15)

13 SERPENTINE (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) J Allen 53.5kg (23)

14 DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ) (Phillip Stokes) D Moor 53kg (13)

15 GRAND PROMENADE (GB) (C. Maher & D. Eustace) H T Coffey 53kg (1)
...[Message truncated]
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From: pianot


Went with the three, fourteen, and twenty four combo. Hope u score.


From: Plus2lbs


#5 Numerian..

Have to use #12 Hoo Ya Ma.


Nice pick Winter..

20c super pays 25k

  • Edited November 1, 2022 12:32 am  by  Plus2lbs

From: smartyslew


Listed as Soft Turf. I don't if it is raining or not.


From: pianot


Best of luck.


From: smartyslew


Congrats on your sweet hit in the Melbourne Cup ,you surprise me with your hits in big fields oh and

all size fields, thought you might be well enough to share with your forum buddies.

Your buddy Smarty .


From: chroses


LOL come on now, you’re the one that gets all good picks!!!! But thank you