I had been watching Champion's Dream for a while as I like horses coming out of the Champagne Stakes, but he ran pretty bad there on a sealed sloppy track.   I looked at the weather report for Tampa Bay Downs on Sat and it looks like maybe a few thunderstorms tonight (fri) than showers 70% on Sat.   

Every time Champion's Dream has done well it has been on a fast track.  That, and he seems to have a "horse magnet" on him somewhere, as he's always getting bumped-------not even just from one side, but in last, from both sides......yet still mounted a good stretch duel. 
 
But that was also on a clear track.....and the horse who beat him is going off at 20-1!   

At any rate, when a horse you like no longer seems like your appropriate top choice, best to pass the race, if you are not intimately familiar with the other horses or the track, which I'm not . 

Interestingly, this always seems like a race where the horses who win are truly good horses that you can "get excited about".....but then seem to have bad luck somewhere on the TC trail and KY Derby in general.  (classic causeway, sol volente, candy man rocket, McCraken, vinceremos, general quarters, to name a few I really liked). 

I believe most of the Sam Davis type horses are more stamina-bred, and don't have the speed component necessary for the KY Derby, and I just usually save them for the Belmont Stakes.   Does that make any sense to anybody? 

Any thoughts on this race from those who play Tampa?   The favorite (chalk) Dubyuhnell, actually looks like the right horse to win this. 
 

Only other ones I like are longshots  Groveland,  Dreaming of Kona, Classic Legacy, Worthington ----- and still haven't decided what to do wtih champion's dream. 

Looks like the favorite is a good favorite, but seems like 2-1 or 3-1 would be more appropriate, as this is a very competitive race.  

I still like my original picks.  The problem is we do not know if the rain will hold off........so this vital piece of information missing makes capping this just a dart board game. 

Would maybe change out my longshots Classic Legacy or Groveland for Litigate........but that's about it.    

Race is too competitive, we don't know the weather  so it's not a betting race for me.  

So some combo of Champion's Dream, Dubyuhnell, Dreaming of Kona, and Worthington ----

---and either Litgate, or Classic Legacy or Goveland if you wanted to do a 5 horse superfecta.  

Only 2 Litigate 50-1 and Dubyuhnell 30-1 are in this weeks Derby Future pool

and the Futures are suspect and of course Litigate is a Pletcher.

smartyslew said...

Only 2 Litigate 50-1 and Dubyuhnell 30-1 are in this weeks Derby Future pool

and the Futures are suspect and of course Litigate is a Pletcher.

Interesting.    I don't play futures so I would not have known that.   I have a friend who thinks Litigate will win this. 

I'm still rooting for Champions Dream but would not mind seeing a big longshot not with a super trainer win this. 

I ended up betting Litigate at Circa today at 100-1, about an hour before the race......gritty win, looks like he may be able to stay a 10f race well, let's see how he progresses.  I don't mind my bet.

Everybody is shopping around, 100-1 was that the best offered that you found and 

what price does Circa offer today ?
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The Negative imo he has Pletcher and previous non points race  Lasix and Sam Davis race a workout
on that funky track many don't like it, suggest don't look at it as a race, neutral event.

Positives a lot to like IMO Both he and and his BMSire Mineshaft Tail female Family 1x Conduit La Troienne BP classification and Buckpasser 1x same conduit on both sides of the pedigree, This Conduit my favorite
has more TC winners than any Tail Female Family and 3 Stamina Chefs within 5 generations Princequillo IS
Nijinsky CS, and Le Fabuleux P and loaded with 10 positions   of TFF Sires 13c Progeny within 5 generations
Mr Prospector, Seattle Slew, Le Fabuleux  Frizette 13c BP classification Whose 13c and 1x together are powerful
11 positions of tff 1x ,24 positions of 64 positions in 5 generations is a strong influence upclose.
First Blush this Horse was jumping all over the place for the weekend and I wanted to bet him and
didn't because of the Negatives mentioned above.

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He's 45-1 now at Circa......

You forgot to mention that Pistol really liked his pedigree :)

Oh Ok I didn't know I speak for the pretty savvy pistol. The 77 beyer means nothing on that track

however the 6f stks for older was really fast and baffling like 2 different tracks.

I can't believe you got him at 100-1 two weeks after I got 80-1.  One benefit of being in Vegas, but I did get the field exacta which I don't think is available in Vegas,  He went down to 28-1 after the win so I got him at the right time for the future bets.

He's loaded with reines is the main thing and the non reine is Unbridleds tf, even the sire is loaded with reines but I don't pay much attention to that.   Not fond of the bms bms being Mr P At least he turned the running around a bit and got points so there is still a chance. It was strictly on pedigree.    I had one this last pool I was going to play but forgot to bet it, looked up and it 6:30 and too late (another advantage of vegas).   Liked the pedigree and figs better, but has not stepped up to Graded stakes yet, I also wanted to do some exactas which is the bet I like better than win.  Safer to play the field there.  I am not sure about having 40 versus 24 could make a difference in that. 

Yes, love the exacta with the field myself, and you can only get that in the CD pool, not Vegas.

I was very surprised his price drifted north, especially after being entered into the points race.  I chat with the guy in charge at Circa, he'll add any horse for me....but he will also list him at slightly reduced odds, knowing that if I'm interested, he must have a chance.  I got him to add Mage a couple of weeks ago, but I didn't think 140-1 was high enough....but he's already been bet down by more than half.

They only really pay attention to the numbers.  So with Litigate, no one had bet him at 80, or 90, so they moved him to 100.  They work with the numbers every day, every bet.  They have a risk management team computing the odds for the overall pool.  It's actually very fair, that's how some prices drift upwards.  If someone comes in and bets a large amount on Arabian Knight, for example, they not only lower AK's price, but they raise the prices of the competition to encourage more volume in betting.

I thought 150-1 on Harlocap was very fair, especially since he was moved quickly to Asmussen from Beta.....suggesting the ownership is very interested in seeing how good this colt is.