Not our Forum contributor, Early, though his observations are always fantastic :)

BUT, watching the first 3 races (I hit the Pick 3 happily....and the tri in first two), L. Saez is riding great, with confidence, Prat too.  As I posted previously, I think Jock confidence and success is important, significant actually.  I'll continue to watch to handicap jocks today

Gotta have the horse.  [to state the obvious] 

Yes, but in a close race, these intangibles are important to throw into the cappin'

Yes, of course.  The hot rider angle is useful all things being equal.  However, and this is just me, I prefer to play the tote if all things are equal in the handicapping end.

in other words, I'll take the price over the rider. [all things being equal]

My "rider" gimmick is to find the hot ones, yes, but also the ones that don't have more than 1 or 2 mount on the day, or the riders who bring in the huge longshots in routes (at Oaklawn that would be Bejarano).  Talamo brought in a huge over $35++ winner for me when I was looking to play Creative Minister yesterday at KEEN.  Race was 1-1/8 and Talamo can pull those out of his butt sometimes in routes. 

Other plays are if I see a certain horse in a pedigree, for instance, Cryptoclearance, which is where my love for Confidence Game came from.  Hoist the Flag was the damsire of Cryptoclearance, and Hoist was a phenom in every way, despite a very abbreviated racing career.......Jean Cruguet said Hoist was the best horse they ever rode, and that is certainly believable.    I guess when your sire is Tom Rolfe and your BMS is War Admiral, you can be Hoist the Flag though  LOL  

Just watched Irad with a brilliant ride on Fluffy Socks, perfectly timed, and courageously through a small opening to run down Spendarella (who I needed for pick 3/4/5's).  I thought Tyler went too wide on first turn, while Irad broke well, took horse back, and saved ground.  Made all the difference.

In addition, Irad was clearly emotional and excited about the win in this Grade 2.

Rosario had a contender that he kept way too far back.  Timing was off, seriously, in a mile turf race.

The previous race, Tyler kept Irad covered in previous race, on a 1/2 shot, who would have won had he gotten clear.  You can see Irad saying something to Tyler as he won the Distaff.

May not matter much, but they do matter.....I like emotions engaged.  So, will they be vying for the lead in the Derby?!?  I think so, and I think Cyclone will be covering Verifying up outside.  They may go too fast, setting it up for some closers.

Thank you.  I have been watching, my friend.  

One thing I can say about Keith Desormeaux, he seems to actually have knowledge of good pedigrees w/out spending $1.3 million like Mandy Pope does.    I mean, look at the pedigree of Silent Ruler (scratched today).   Truly a gorgeous pedigree.  He finds the ones with somethig the commercial breeders don't like, for cheap, and they always have these impeccable pedigrees.  

Very good point, Winter.....Geroux just took his first mount of the day, Zozos, perfectly timed on the front.  He only has a few more mounts on the day, including Jace's Road, a horse I give very little chance in the Derby.  BUT I may now add him for 4th on a few tickets in the super, thinking that Geroux has a good feel for pace on the front at CD today?