Yes, of course.  The hot rider angle is useful all things being equal.  However, and this is just me, I prefer to play the tote if all things are equal in the handicapping end.

in other words, I'll take the price over the rider. [all things being equal]

My "rider" gimmick is to find the hot ones, yes, but also the ones that don't have more than 1 or 2 mount on the day, or the riders who bring in the huge longshots in routes (at Oaklawn that would be Bejarano).  Talamo brought in a huge over $35++ winner for me when I was looking to play Creative Minister yesterday at KEEN.  Race was 1-1/8 and Talamo can pull those out of his butt sometimes in routes. 

Other plays are if I see a certain horse in a pedigree, for instance, Cryptoclearance, which is where my love for Confidence Game came from.  Hoist the Flag was the damsire of Cryptoclearance, and Hoist was a phenom in every way, despite a very abbreviated racing career.......Jean Cruguet said Hoist was the best horse they ever rode, and that is certainly believable.    I guess when your sire is Tom Rolfe and your BMS is War Admiral, you can be Hoist the Flag though  LOL  

Just watched Irad with a brilliant ride on Fluffy Socks, perfectly timed, and courageously through a small opening to run down Spendarella (who I needed for pick 3/4/5's).  I thought Tyler went too wide on first turn, while Irad broke well, took horse back, and saved ground.  Made all the difference.

In addition, Irad was clearly emotional and excited about the win in this Grade 2.

Rosario had a contender that he kept way too far back.  Timing was off, seriously, in a mile turf race.

The previous race, Tyler kept Irad covered in previous race, on a 1/2 shot, who would have won had he gotten clear.  You can see Irad saying something to Tyler as he won the Distaff.

May not matter much, but they do matter.....I like emotions engaged.  So, will they be vying for the lead in the Derby?!?  I think so, and I think Cyclone will be covering Verifying up outside.  They may go too fast, setting it up for some closers.

Thank you.  I have been watching, my friend.  

One thing I can say about Keith Desormeaux, he seems to actually have knowledge of good pedigrees w/out spending $1.3 million like Mandy Pope does.    I mean, look at the pedigree of Silent Ruler (scratched today).   Truly a gorgeous pedigree.  He finds the ones with somethig the commercial breeders don't like, for cheap, and they always have these impeccable pedigrees.  

Very good point, Winter.....Geroux just took his first mount of the day, Zozos, perfectly timed on the front.  He only has a few more mounts on the day, including Jace's Road, a horse I give very little chance in the Derby.  BUT I may now add him for 4th on a few tickets in the super, thinking that Geroux has a good feel for pace on the front at CD today?

Maybe look at the opposite of the hot jocks, since so many can win?  How about the cold jocks?  Rosario just missed the board on a horse that has never been off the board in his 9 previous races, Big Invasion, spotted and worked by an excellent trainer, Clemente....the previous race completely bombed on the favorite Masqueparade.....the race before, took Wakanaka way back, late run for 4th only.  The 4th race no good on the rail, the 3rd nothing on a long shot.  No mounts in 1st and 2nd.

On Fort Bragg here in the Pat Day Mile....I'm now staying away.  Looking at playing Damon's Mound as longshot, along with Gilmore now.  I think it's wide open, actually, so only playing small

What do you think of Hernandez?  He's on Frosted Departure, first mount since the 3rd race.....could be better than everyone thinks :)

princeofdoc said...

What do you think of Hernandez?  He's on Frosted Departure

I replaced one of my horses or suggested doing so with that one.  Or at least, I'm pretty sure I posted that in the Pat Day topic.